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Contradictory Statements Expose Iran’s Regime Fueling Price Speculations Amid Fear of Social Unrest 

Farid Mahoutchi

Three-minute read 

Iran’s clerical regime faces mounting economic challenges with a growing budget deficit, compounded by costly regional interventions and dwindling domestic resources. In an attempt to address these shortfalls, authorities have leaned towards raising the prices of essential goods, particularly fuel, sparking fears among citizens that the state may once again shift its fiscal burdens onto the public. Yet, even as officials float the prospect of price hikes, contradictory statements from within the regime reveal a struggle with internal uncertainty and anxiety over how such measures could trigger unrest reminiscent of the 2019 protests. 

Hossein Raghfar, an economist linked to the regime, directly associated Iran’s economic strain with its heavy regional spending, stating, “The budget has surged abnormally, and the government lacks sufficient resources, especially now that the region faces crises in Lebanon and Palestine. The country’s foreign currency expenditures have increased sharply, and the government does not have sufficient resources. As a result, it resorts to increasing the price of currency and energy carriers, including gasoline.” 

During his introduction of the budget bill, Masoud Pezeshkian highlighted the pressing need for energy subsidy reforms, citing a marked rise in gasoline consumption without a corresponding increase in population or national income. “One of the current challenges is the reform of energy subsidies,” he explained, noting that gasoline consumption this year has risen by approximately 40% compared to 2019. This spike has placed additional strain on national resources, given the substantial costs associated with producing and importing gasoline. Pezeshkian underscored that domestic production costs around 8,000 tomans per liter, while imports cost as much as 30,000–40,000 tomans per liter—a discrepancy he argues must be addressed to stabilize the economy. 

At the same time, Iranian officials have sought to ease public concern, attempting to reassure citizens that any price increases will come with due notice. Fatemeh Mohajerani, the spokesperson of Masoud Pezeshkian’s government, asserted that “people will not be surprised by gasoline price hikes,” promising that any decision to increase prices would be shared with the public beforehand. 

Yet critics argue that advance notice does little to ease the financial impact. A recent column in Shargh newspaper questioned, “Does informing the public a month ahead change the burden of high costs? Past administrations raised gasoline prices suddenly, but what good is it if people know a month in advance?”  

Further complicating matters, officials have not clarified which price rate they might adopt for fuel, contributing to public confusion. Reflecting the ongoing ambiguity, Siasat-e Rooz, a regime-aligned newspaper, cautioned that “the public will not tolerate gasoline price increases at any rate.” 

Conflicting statements regarding future fuel prices continue to surface. While Pezeshkian emphasized the need for subsidy reforms due to a 40% surge in consumption, Ali Asghar Nakhai, a parliamentary member, insisted that “people should not worry about gasoline price increases, as this will not happen by the end of the year.” Yet regime sources indicate that although the 1404 budget does not formally include a fuel hike, inflationary pressures make such an increase likely. 

Meanwhile, prices of essential goods, including sugar, grains, and beans, have surged by 30–40% since the start of the year. Hossein Samsami, another parliamentary official, attributed this inflation to the reduction of subsidized currency allocations, saying it “has impacted the people’s tables directly.” He further acknowledged that while the budget does not explicitly call for a fuel price increase, inflationary pressures and revenue needs make it likely. 

In a further attempt to calm public concerns, budget spokesperson Mojgan Khanlou claimed that Pezeshkian’s recent reference to an 8,000-toman gasoline price was not a set figure but an illustration of the difference between production costs and current prices. “The president’s statement was to highlight the significant gap between the real cost of gasoline and the sale price, not to imply that the 1404 budget includes this rate,” she stated. 

For many Iranians, however, the conflicting government messages around fuel pricing reflect a deeper turmoil within the regime as it struggles to balance its finances and manage public discontent. The discordant voices among state officials indicate not only economic hardship but also an underlying fear of renewed unrest.  

After nearly half a century of clerical rule, Iranians have witnessed time and again how the regime attempts to deflect blame and obscure the roots of each crisis. As a result, they have grown increasingly skeptical of official rhetoric, seeing through what many perceive as empty assurances. Instead, they reserve their anger, channeling it toward an ever-present tension, ready to erupt in a volatile moment when grievances can no longer be contained. 

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