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In a clear sign of mounting pressure and fear of unrest, the Iranian regime has halted plans to increase bread prices in Tehran, while quietly allowing sharp price hikes to go ahead in several provinces. This contradictory approach highlights the growing economic crisis and the clerical regime’s acute sensitivity to the risk of widespread protests over the cost of basic necessities.
On July 14, 2025, the state-affiliated Shargh website reported that Tehran’s local authorities had failed to approve a new pricing plan for bread, despite expectations that the increase would be finalized that day. Hamidreza Rastgar, the head of the Tehran Chamber of Guilds, confirmed that “due to the special circumstances of the country,” the plan had been postponed and all bakeries in the capital were instructed to continue baking bread at current rates.
This move represents a rare public retreat for the regime and underscores the political volatility surrounding bread—a staple that carries deep symbolic and practical significance for Iran’s working-class population. Any adjustment to its price is immediately interpreted not just as economic policy, but as a direct assault on the livelihood of millions already grappling with inflation, unemployment, and poverty.
Bread, Blood, and Bankruptcy: #Iran Protests Spread Amid #IRGC Killingshttps://t.co/6wdk7CK2ei
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) July 9, 2025
Bread Prices Soar in the Provinces
While Tehran saw a pause, other provinces proceeded with significant price increases. In Khorasan Razavi province, Mohamad-Sadegh Mohammadzadeh, head of inspection and monitoring for local guilds, confirmed that prices for both subsidized and semi-subsidized bread had increased by 42% to 52%. In Mashhad, the new rates include 3,000 tomans for barbari bread and 5,200 tomans for sangak, among other types.
In Qom, the price hike was also finalized and implemented. According to the provincial bakers’ union, sangak now costs 5,200 tomans, barbari 3,500 tomans, and taftoon 1,900 tomans. These prices are now being displayed on bakery sales terminals across the region.
This uneven rollout of price hikes appears to reflect a calculated political strategy: the regime is using regional price adjustments to spread economic pain without sparking mass protests in the capital. By decentralizing decisions on such a sensitive issue, the government avoids concentrating public anger on central authorities, while still signaling its commitment to fiscal austerity amid economic collapse.
#Iranian Regime Policies Turn Bread into Luxury, Fueling Popular Ragehttps://t.co/gcQOILov0o
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 4, 2025
Bread as a Political Flashpoint
More than just a food item, bread in Iran is deeply linked to notions of social justice, especially among the poor. Historically, changes in bread pricing have triggered unrest, making the commodity a political fault line. The regime is clearly aware of this and has adopted a cautious, regionally staggered approach.
Analysts point to recent precedents—such as the temporary suspension of bread price hikes during the spring conflict with Israel—as evidence that the regime is extremely sensitive to the destabilizing potential of food inflation. With public anger simmering and trust in the government eroding, any sudden increase in staple goods could serve as the spark for mass mobilization.
#IranProtests: Bakers and Drivers Ignite Nationwide Demonstrations Amid Economic Collapse https://t.co/y0nL9oSO8E
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 24, 2025
A Regime on the Edge
The regime’s hesitation in Tehran reflects a deeper dilemma: it is under pressure to cut subsidies and stabilize the budget yet fears the political consequences of doing so too abruptly. Caught between fiscal necessity and social instability, it now treads a narrow and increasingly dangerous path.
This precarious balancing act—tightening economic screws while avoiding a public explosion—shows the limits of the regime’s control in the face of rising poverty and inequality. Bread, a daily necessity, has once again become a symbol of broader discontent.
As Iran’s economic crisis deepens, and with the gap between state and society growing ever wider, the cost of miscalculation grows higher. The regime’s fear-driven policy zigzags may delay unrest, but they cannot eliminate the explosive potential of daily bread becoming a political flashpoint.