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In a rare moment of candor, the head of Iran’s ruling clerical dictatorship, Ali Khamenei, opened the new Iranian year with a televised message that more closely resembled a list of national catastrophes than a New Year’s address. Comparing the current situation to the volatile and turbulent year of 1981, Khamenei acknowledged the regime’s profound instability, both at home and across the region.
“Events in the year 1403 were like those of 1360 [1981],” he said. “It was a year full of incidents, difficulties, and hardships for our dear people.”
In the regime’s official calendar, each new year is branded with a theme. But despite the collapse of every economic promise made in recent years, Khamenei again resorted to a hollow slogan: “Investment for Production.”
“Our major issue again this year is the economy,” he declared. “What I expect from the government, officials, and our dear people is once again an economic matter. It is related to investment in the economy.”
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He went on to dismiss the idea of foreign investment, insisting: “As soon as we say ‘investment,’ some people think of foreign capital. No, the investment should be internal… It must not go toward harmful activities like buying gold and foreign currency.”
But with the rial rapidly approaching 100,000 to the U.S. dollar and the official rate of inflation above 35%, most Iranians are doing exactly that—fleeing the collapsing currency by investing in hard assets. Khamenei’s calls for economic patriotism are out of touch with a population struggling for basic survival.
A Year of Losses and Setbacks
Khamenei opened his address by recounting what he described as “bitter events,” including the death of the regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash and the killing of IRGC commanders in Syria.
“In the early months of the year, the martyrdom of the late Mr. Raisi occurred,” he said. “Before that, several of our advisors were martyred in Damascus. Then there were various incidents in Tehran and Lebanon… These were painful events.”
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These events, far from isolated, mark a deep erosion of the regime’s regional influence. Despite this, Khamenei doubled down on denial, rejecting the widespread characterization of Iranian-backed groups as proxies.
“It is wrong to call these groups ‘proxies.’ This is an insult,” he said. “The Islamic Republic does not need an agent. These are motivated people. The nations themselves resist.”
Yet this claim contradicts decades of public statements from regime officials boasting about building an “Axis of Resistance” from Yemen to Lebanon with Iranian support.
Rejecting Negotiation, Escalating Isolation
The clerical ruler used his speech to categorically reject negotiations with the United States, just as reports emerged that former U.S. President Donald Trump had sent a letter to Tehran, warning of possible military action unless Iran returns to nuclear talks.
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“Negotiation with America is neither wise, nor intelligent, nor honorable,” read a banner published simultaneously on Khamenei’s official website. “Why? Because of experience!”
In his Nowruz address, Khamenei did not acknowledge the letter, though just days earlier he had publicly denied receiving it.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, however, confirmed its existence in a state TV interview, saying: “The letter was more of a threat, although [Trump] claims opportunities also exist.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear activities continue to raise alarms. The International Atomic Energy Agency has warned that Iran is enriching uranium at 60%, dangerously close to weapons-grade. Khamenei, however, remained silent on the issue in his New Year message.
No Sign of Nowruz, No Sign of Confidence
For the second year in a row, Khamenei’s address ignored Nowruz, the ancient Persian New Year celebrated for millennia across Iran. There was no Haft-Seen, no seasonal flowers, not even a symbolic gesture toward Iranian cultural identity.
The regime’s president Masoud Pezeshkian also addressed the nation but offered little beyond vague reassurances.
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— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 20, 2025
“I understand the problems of inflation and high prices with all my being,” he said. “We will definitely find a way to overcome these challenges.”
Pezeshkian, echoing Khamenei, praised “the lofty goals and vision of our dear leader” and called for “internal unity and avoiding polarization.” He also reiterated the regime’s priority of strengthening ties with regional neighbors over global engagement.
His remarks did not include any concrete policy proposals.
Regime Preparing for a Volatile Year
By likening the current situation to 1981, Khamenei drew attention to a year remembered for nationwide uprisings and brutal crackdowns. Then, as now, the regime faced mounting internal dissent and deep political fractures.
The fact that Khamenei sees parallels to that period may reflect what many inside and outside Iran already sense: the clerical dictatorship is entering a year of profound vulnerability.
As public discontent deepens, the clerical dictatorship faces growing international isolation, the dismantling of its regional militias, and a continuing economic freefall. Amid these mounting pressures, the leadership appears more concerned with the anger simmering inside Iran than with any external adversary. Khamenei’s message may have been intended as a display of resolve—but instead, it exposed a regime gripped by fear.