Four-minute read
In the wake of a fragile ceasefire with Israel following a destructive 12-day war, the Iranian regime has launched a full-scale effort to project strength and suppress internal cracks—political, military, and societal—that threaten to widen. The regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials have flooded the airwaves with triumphant rhetoric, while insiders warn of strategic failure, and the security apparatus intensifies repression to prevent a collapse in morale.
Khamenei’s Bluster and the War Narrative
In his first public remarks after the ceasefire, Khamenei sought to portray the conflict as a historic victory. “The Zionist regime, with all its noise and claims, was practically crushed under the blows of the Islamic Republic,” he declared, adding: “This regime had never imagined such blows were even possible.” He boasted that his regime had dealt a “hard slap to the face of America” by striking the U.S. Al Udeid base in Qatar—a strike which U.S. President Trump later revealed was pre-announced and deconflicted, with no casualties.
Khamenei dismissed the notion of Iran capitulating to U.S. demands. “It is no longer about nuclear enrichment or nuclear industry. The issue is that Iran must surrender,” he said, before scoffing: “This talk is far too big for the mouth of the American president.” He framed any suggestion of de-escalation as weakness, warning that Iran has the capability to strike again if needed.
This aggressive posture, however, belies deep fractures inside the regime—and mounting evidence of a costly and avoidable war that has left the population disillusioned and the security forces shaken.
#Iran’s Regime Responds to Military Losses with Repression and Belligerencehttps://t.co/xZNoIoYUWi
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 25, 2025
Systemic conformity
Meanwhile, former president Hassan Rouhani warned that the ceasefire could be a deceptive pause rather than an end to threats, admitting the war came at a “heavy cost” while crediting Khamenei’s leadership for turning retreat into resistance. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf framed the conflict as a divine trial rather than a military failure. Their remarks reveal a regime scrambling to justify the war’s devastation and reframe it as a show of strength, even as the consequences point to strategic miscalculation and deep vulnerability.
President Masoud Pezeshkian tried to balance the regime’s narrative of strength with cautious acknowledgments of the toll. “The loss of compatriots, scientists, and commanders, and the damage to infrastructure, represents a significant blow,” he said. But he simultaneously claimed that “the enemy accepted a ceasefire only after suffering harsh punishment.”
🔴 Breaking
The Iranian regime has launched 6 missiles toward a U.S. base in Qatar.
In response, U.S. bases in Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait are on high alert for further missile threats.
Tensions escalate in the region.
Reports indicate explosions were heard in Doha #Iran #Qatar… pic.twitter.com/ylac7fe2bU— SIMAY AZADI TV (@en_simayazadi) June 23, 2025
Ceasefire as “Strategic Mistake”
Beneath the surface, regime insiders are bitterly divided. Abolfazl Zohrehvand, a senior member of parliament’s Security Commission, blasted the ceasefire as a “strategic mistake,” insisting that “Israel never respects any ceasefire—just look at their record with Hezbollah.”
A Qom Seminary-affiliated media described the truce as a “tactical breathing space” rather than a concession. Extremist figures like Meysam Nili, a key figure in the ultraconservative Paydari Front, warned that the call for negotiations during active conflict reflected serious “security breaches” and infiltration of decision-making bodies.
Others, like regime insider Abdoljavad Mousavi, advocated for a more pragmatic reassessment, warning against self-delusion and “roaring speeches” detached from the regime’s actual standing. Still, these more rational voices remain marginal.
War at Home: #Iran’s Prisons in Crisis Amid Regional Conflicthttps://t.co/TATMVpvKFn
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 25, 2025
Crackdown, Desertion, and Fear of Collapse
As the regime declares “victory,” its security organs are scrambling to contain widespread internal fallout. Reports from multiple provinces indicate hundreds of arrests—including at least 700 people accused of espionage for Israel, and over 10,000 drones reportedly seized in Tehran alone.
Military and paramilitary disobedience has surged. According to Farda News (later removed), there is a growing wave of desertions, refusal to carry out orders, and disappearance of personnel in the military and security branches. In response, the regime’s General Staff authorized local commanders to use “the harshest possible measures” against noncompliant forces.
In cities like Kermanshah, Shiraz, and Gilan, mass arrests have followed anti-regime activity or alleged “disruption of security.” The crackdown is intended not just to punish dissent but to intimidate wavering personnel—an attempt to stop the erosion from within.
#Iran’s Regime Faces Internal Reckoning as Ceasefire Beginshttps://t.co/cC94qGKplK
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 25, 2025
Nuclear Defiance: Doubling Down, Not Backing Down
Rather than seeking de-escalation, officials have escalated nuclear rhetoric. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that the Israeli and American strikes had only “strengthened Iran’s determination” to pursue its nuclear program. “No one in Iran will abandon this technology,” he said, warning that “the future trajectory of Iran’s nuclear policy and its relationship to the nonproliferation regime will inevitably change.”
Araghchi accused the IAEA of politically motivated reporting and explicitly rejected a return to negotiations with the U.S. unless military attacks ceased. “Europe is not a real player,” he added dismissively, “real decisions are made elsewhere.”
#Breaking reports from Iran indicate that the entrance gate of Iran's notorious Evin Prison has been targeted in the latest attacks by Israel. pic.twitter.com/jgFN6Ccxxk
— SIMAY AZADI TV (@en_simayazadi) June 23, 2025
Propaganda Machine in Overdrive
The regime has activated its state media and Basij mobilization network in full force to contain the psychological impact of the war. Choreographed rallies, glorification of the Supreme Leader, and staged public celebrations are flooding airwaves to counter growing public anger and doubt.
In Tehran, IRGC-aligned MP Mojtaba Zarei ridiculed the idea of a formal ceasefire. “This is a misuse of words,” he said. “There is no peace, no agreement—only a pause.” He promised the regime’s parliament would ban IAEA chief Rafael Grossi from entering Iran and revive legislation for punishing any citizen cooperating with “hostile governments.”
At these rallies, slogans like “Death to America” and “If Khamenei gives the order, we will wage jihad” were chanted to signal resilience—but to many Iranians, they ring hollow after a war that exposed the regime’s military vulnerability and brought devastation home.
Why State Officials Boast About #Iran’s Role in the #MiddleEastConflicthttps://t.co/r837fO4NEz
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 20, 2024
A Regime on the Edge
Despite official triumphalism, the clerical dictatorship emerges from this conflict weakened, divided, and increasingly dependent on repression to maintain control. It has shown no sign of moderating its policies, even as internal defection, economic strain, and political dissent continue to mount.
For a regime built on the projection of power, even the appearance of retreat risks a chain reaction of collapse. As such, Tehran’s post-ceasefire posture—aggressive, repressive, and ideologically rigid—reveals less about strength and more about fear of unraveling from within.