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As Tehran engages in sensitive nuclear negotiations with the United States, Iran’s clerical regime finds itself trapped between two existential threats: mounting domestic unrest and the risk of losing its hard-core support base through diplomatic compromise. In response, the regime has intensified a brutal crackdown on its population, revealing its deep fear of an internal uprising that could shatter its already brittle hold on power.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent speeches have been marked not by triumphalism but by anxiety. On April 24, 2025, he invoked the historical peace of Imam Hassan, warning of “doubt” and “disloyalty” among his own supporters. “In every era, some fall into doubt,” he said, implicitly acknowledging cracks within his ruling elite. Simultaneously, Khamenei lashed out at insiders who “cannot control their mouth,” underscoring his fear of defections at the highest levels.
This pervasive insecurity has triggered a wave of repression unseen in years. In just three days in April, the regime executed at least 22 prisoners, according to reports by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). Since the inauguration of Masoud Pezeshkian, over 1,100 executions have been recorded—an unprecedented rate of one every 5.5 hours. Observers agree: this surge in state violence is not about crime control but about extinguishing dissent ahead of potential political upheaval.
#Khamenei Warns of Internal Doubt as Nuclear Talks and Crises Shake #Iran’s Ruling Systemhttps://t.co/ozjsJI9KBh
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 25, 2025
Meanwhile, regime officials oscillate between hardline warnings against negotiations and visible signs of unease about maintaining internal cohesion. State television broadcasts and media outlets emphasize distrust of U.S. intentions, while political leaders attempt to reassure their increasingly disillusioned base that any talks will not compromise core principles.
Khamenei-affiliated media like Kayhan and Khorasan stress distrust of American intentions and warn against “tying” the fate of the Iranian economy to talks. Friday prayer leaders from Karaj to Mashhad echo the same refrain: beware “psychological warfare” aimed at weakening the faithful. The fear is palpable—not of foreign enemies, but of ideological collapse and mass defections if core supporters feel betrayed by concessions.
The regime’s fear of internal collapse was unmistakable in Friday sermons across Iran. In Karaj, Hosseini Hamadani railed against cultural attacks on Islamic values, blaming officials for failing to enforce social discipline. In Mashhad, Ahmad Alamolhoda warned that tying the nation’s economy to U.S. negotiations was “shirk against God” and would cause economic chaos, investment paralysis, and “severe psychological pressure” on the public. In Shiraz, Lotfollah Dezhkam declared that any divisive speech was the work of “Satan’s agents,” while in Bīrjand, Alireza Ebadi praised Khamenei’s defiance against U.S. threats and warned of infiltration within state institutions seeking to undermine the regime from within.
#Iran News: Regime Moves to Indoctrinate #Students as Tehran Frets Over Role of Youth in Uprisingshttps://t.co/X1zDl2IPCM
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 21, 2025
These warnings reveal a profound reality: Khamenei’s regime is trapped. If it negotiates and compromises, it risks alienating its already demoralized follower base—its last bulwark against a resentful society. If it refuses and maintains its hardline stance, it faces further economic collapse, social unrest, and international isolation.
Amid this high-stakes gambit, Tehran’s escalating repression—mass executions, heightened surveillance, and crackdowns on civil liberties—is less a show of strength than a sign of terminal weakness. The regime seeks to forestall an uprising not with legitimacy, but with terror.
Ultimately, whether through internal decay or external pressure, Iran’s ruling system stands on the edge of an abyss—cornered, crumbling, and petrified of the very people it believes it can suppress forever.