The Iranian regime has expressed growing concern over recent regional developments, particularly the ceasefire in Lebanon and the shifting balance of power in Syria. Officials and state-affiliated analysts are openly discussing their fears of the fallout from these changes, revealing a regime increasingly apprehensive about its vanishing regional influence and domestic stability.
Ceasefire in Lebanon Sparks Anxiety
During a recent state television broadcast, a host outlined the growing narratives of disillusionment surrounding Hezbollah’s perceived concessions in Lebanon. “In media spaces and on social networks, groups claiming to be well-intentioned are all converging on a sense of hopelessness,” the host stated. “Some are spreading the theory that Hezbollah was defeated, others claim Hezbollah lost because Iran betrayed them, and yet another group argues that Hezbollah betrayed Iran and Gaza by agreeing to the ceasefire.”
Responding to the host, a regime-affiliated analyst, Shahbazi, admitted to the precariousness of the situation. “A deal has been reached between Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament, the Lebanese government, and the Americans. Hezbollah is not bound by it yet,” he stated, adding, “Hezbollah may or may not adhere to it, but now that Lebanon’s situation is somewhat stable, we worry their attention will turn to us.”
He drew parallels to past domestic unrest, saying, “I expect something like the events of 2022 [nationwide protests] to happen again. Perhaps not outright military operations, but acts of sabotage designed to create internal divisions, as we saw after the Ukrainian plane incident.”
The analyst expressed concern over the psychological toll of what he described as an ongoing “media war.” Referring to state propaganda portraying the Lebanon ceasefire as a victory for Hezbollah, he remarked, “I expected to see celebrations in the streets today, but there were none. This psychological war is even impacting our revolutionary and Hezbollah-aligned base.”
#Iran #News: Khamenei Rallies Basij Amid Fears of Protests and Pressure to Change His Regional Strategy https://t.co/L6oe0jFAu7
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 27, 2024
Operation “Fake Promise”
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime’s rhetoric following recent regional setbacks highlights its growing reliance on proxies to maintain its influence while avoiding direct confrontation. IRGC Deputy Coordinator Mohammad Reza Naghdi dismissed expectations surrounding the long-delayed True Promise 3 Operation, a supposed direct retaliation against Israel, and instead shifted focus to the Palestinian groups.
Conducting a speech at an event for Basij forces, Naghdi said, “I do not concern myself with True Promise 3. That is for the country’s security officials to decide and address.” Instead, he deflected attention toward a potential follow-up to the “Storm of Al-Aqsa” campaign, saying, “We are preparing for ‘Storm of Al-Aqsa 2’ to finish the Zionists once and for all.”
This admission effectively signals the regime’s reluctance to escalate into a direct military confrontation with Israel, opting instead to delegate action to Palestinian proxies. Naghdi’s remarks, while attempting to project strength, have disappointed regime supporters who expected decisive action. His suggestion that the fate of “True Promise 3” lies with security officials highlights the regime’s anxious approach, balancing domestic pressures with the fear of provoking a wider conflict involving Israel and potentially the United States.
As November 2019 Uprising Anniversary Nears, #Iran’s Regime Lacks Regional Escape Route Amid Brewing Unresthttps://t.co/47ljcBOcCE
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 14, 2024
Worries about Shifting Power Dynamics in Northern Syria
Furthermore, a classified bulletin circulated within the regime’s intelligence community highlights significant shifts in northern Syria, particularly in Aleppo’s outskirts, as a source of growing concern for Tehran. The analysis warns of the Syrian army’s inability to hold critical territories, coupled with the rising influence of rebel forces, creating a precarious situation for the regime’s regional strategy.
The bulletin states, “The recent developments in northern Syria, particularly around Aleppo, underscore significant changes in the balance of power. The Syrian army’s defeats and retreat from critical areas such as Khan al-Asal and Khan Touman, coupled with the rapid advances of opposition forces, especially Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have introduced a new reality for this region. These setbacks are not merely the result of tactical weaknesses but also highlight the complexities of regional dynamics and the active role of external players.”
The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Khan al-Asal, located just 3 kilometers west of Aleppo, which recently fell to rebel forces after fierce battles. The bulletin notes, “Field reports indicate that despite support from Russia and Iran, the Syrian army could not hold the area against the heavy assault of opposition forces and was forced to withdraw. This failure raises serious questions about the Syrian army’s capability to defend critical territories under its control.”
#Khamenei’s Post-Strike Address Exposes Fears of Regional Setbacks and Regime Insecurityhttps://t.co/CNStufiQYC
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 28, 2024
The bulletin underscores the involvement of the Quds Force, Afghan Fatemiyoun, Pakistani Zeinabiyoun, and Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi militias in defending these areas. However, their collective failure to prevent opposition gains highlights the increasing challenges for the regime’s regional ambitions.
The bulletin also cites claims from Abdelqader al-Karbalaee, commander of Iraq’s al-Nujaba militia, who alleged that recent rebel offensives were instigated by Israel. Al-Karbalaei further claimed that his group has deployed reinforcements to Syria to address these developments.
Adding to these setbacks, the death of Iranian Brigadier General Kiomars Pour-Hashemi in Aleppo has highlighted the escalating risks for Tehran’s military advisers in the region.
Implications for the Region and Beyond
The regime’s rhetoric underscores its mounting anxiety as it grapples with growing challenges to its regional influence and internal stability. From Lebanon’s ceasefire to Syria’s power shifts, Iran’s leadership appears increasingly aware of its vulnerabilities. Officials openly acknowledge the risks of heightened international pressure and the potential for renewed domestic unrest, revealing a fragile regime under siege both at home and abroad.
