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Western media have recently amplified the Iranian regime’s aggressive rhetoric, portraying it as a formidable military power ready for full-scale conflict. However, this portrayal belies the truth: while Iranian officials frequently issue bold threats, the regime’s actual capabilities and intentions reflect a strategy focused more on internal survival than external warfare.
In his speech on November 2, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei issued a stark warning in response to escalating regional tensions and Israeli actions. He emphasized his regime’s readiness to deliver a decisive response, stating, “Those who commit hostilities against Iran and the Axis of Resistance will receive a ‘tooth-breaking’ response.”
Kamal Kharazi, a senior advisor to Khamenei and chairman of the Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, recently told Lebanon’s Al-Mayadeen network, “If Iran faces an existential threat, it will change its military doctrine,” emphasizing that the nation already possesses “the capability to build a nuclear weapon.”
Furthermore, along with multiple other military and state officials, the IRGC Chief Hossein Salami boasted at a regime-staged rally, “Israelis think they can change history by launching a few missiles… You attacked, but know that our response will be unimaginable.”
More Signs of #Iran’s Regional Strategy Collapse Emerge as #Lebanon Pushes Backhttps://t.co/FpMuRXmaN8
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 19, 2024
On November 4, at a parliamentary public session, MP Vahid Ahmadi said, “Israel knows that the Islamic Republic can strike any target with precision,” warning that any major Israeli incursion would be met with a stronger response than before, utilizing new capabilities that would leave Israel stunned.
While these bold statements project an image of strength, they mask the regime’s underlying anxieties. The Iranian leadership is acutely aware that foreign adversaries are unlikely to attempt an overthrow without a ground invasion. Instead, the most pressing threat comes from within the nation itself.
This concern was evident during Khamenei’s address on October 27, a day after Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites. Meeting with families of security forces killed in recent local confrontations and urban skirmishes, Khamenei emphasized the importance of maintaining internal stability. “When we understood the importance of security for the country, we realized that security must be protected—whether by the police, the Basij forces, or intelligence agencies…wherever there is no security, there is chaos,” he said, noting that without security, “one person causes trouble at the border, another causes trouble in the streets, and yet another causes trouble by spreading rumors.”
#Iran’s Regime Grapples with Internal Crisis as Regional Tensions Mounthttps://t.co/Js19PiRiJ0
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 20, 2024
His speech, published on his website on the same day, mentioned the word “security” 50 times, underscoring the regime’s acute focus on internal order amid growing public discontent.
Khamenei’s emphasis on internal stability is not without justification. Mohammad Ebadi Zadeh, the regime’s Friday prayer leader in Bandar Abbas, laid bare the regime’s deeper fears on October 11, stating, “I want to give some advice to our dear people. We are not so much worried about enemy planes coming to bomb a point… we are not worried about this issue. We are concerned about the psychological warfare inside the country. We are worried that their agents and proxies want to drag the atmosphere of this country toward chaos and turmoil. We should be vigilant about the enemy’s mischief and movements in society.”
Last week, the Iranian government’s proposed 200% increase in its military budget for the upcoming fiscal year, funded in part by oil revenues dedicated to the IRGC, underscores a strategy that, while signaling adventurism to the world, is ultimately focused on internal security. Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani emphasized this significant budget proposal as part of broader efforts to bolster Iran’s defense capabilities, though many analysts believe that the true figure far exceeds publicly disclosed amounts.
Appeasement Brought #War, Only Regime Change in #Iran Can Deliver Peacehttps://t.co/S6Izl20Atd
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 6, 2024
Ultimately, while the Iranian regime’s fierce rhetoric toward external adversaries may seem aggressive, it is primarily an approach aimed at boosting the morale of its increasingly disillusioned security forces—the very units at the forefront of suppressing popular uprisings. Tehran’s reluctance to engage in direct military confrontation with foreign powers underscores a strategic calculation: the regime understands that any external escalation could create an opportunity for its greatest threat—domestic dissent—to rise up. However, even if the regime proceeds with a military strike, it is fully aware that it cannot win such a war. Yet, it finds itself with no other choice but to engage, forced to choose between bad (regional confrontation) and worse (inaction and the potential collapse of its security apparatus).
Perhaps, Khamenei’s October 27 address is the clearest indication of that matter, where he referred to his own tight-knit follower base as ‘the people,’ saying, “Those who spread false information and create fear, doubt, and anxiety among the people are called “disturbers”, and God commanded the Prophet that if they do not desist, they should be punished. Officials must ensure the security of the borders and the streets and the psychological security of the people.”
