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The Iranian regime’s aggressive actions on the global stage have escalated dramatically in recent years, with Tehran now directly fueling conflicts beyond its borders. In early September 2024, the U.S. and U.K. accused the regime of supplying ballistic missiles to Russia for use in Ukraine, marking a significant escalation in the war. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said, “The supply of Iranian missiles enables Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets that are further from the front line.” These actions, which also led to new sanctions, highlight the growing military ties between Moscow and Tehran.
This transfer of weaponry has brought increased instability to Europe. According to Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry, Russia has launched over 8,060 Iranian drones at Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion, causing devastation across the country. Tehran’s denials, including a recent claim by the regime’s president that no weapons transfers have occurred under his administration, have done little to reassure Western nations that are increasingly concerned about the security threat posed by Tehran’s deepening involvement in the war.
Beyond its role in Ukraine, Iran’s regime has long been linked to terror plots targeting European soil, as well as figures critical of the regime. Recent years have seen a surge in Iranian-orchestrated terrorist activities and assassination plots across Europe, revealing Tehran’s readiness to extend its reach far beyond the Middle East.
In 2021, Asadollah Assadi, an Iranian diplomat, was convicted for his role in a plot to bomb the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)’s annual gathering in Paris in 2018. The event was attended by tens of thousands of people, including global political leaders. Assadi’s arrest and conviction were clear indications of Tehran’s determination to target its critics wherever they are, using diplomatic cover to facilitate acts of terrorism.
Other alarming cases include the assassination of Alejo Vidal-Quadras, a Spanish politician, in 2024. His outspoken criticism of Tehran and his support for the NCRI made him a target of the regime. Furthermore, throughout 2023 and 2024, European authorities uncovered several Iranian-linked plots, including in Germany, France, and the U.K., aimed at attacking Jews, Iranian dissidents, and critics of the regime.
In a plot with broader international implications, a Pakistani national linked to Iranian operatives was arrested for attempting to assassinate former U.S. President Donald Trump. Additionally, U.S. officials have revealed multiple Iranian plots to kill former U.S. officials John Bolton and Mike Pompeo, in retaliation for the 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force.
Despite these incidents, Western governments have often failed to respond forcefully to Tehran’s growing threat. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has long warned that appeasement by Western nations emboldens the Iranian regime, allowing it to escalate its terror activities without facing significant consequences. The NCRI’s 2022 report on Tehran’s hostage-taking and terrorism highlights how diplomatic leniency has only fueled the regime’s aggression.
In negotiations, weak concessions beget strong demands. When dealing with the most active state sponsor of #terrorism, weakness begets more #hostage-taking and the spread of terror. https://t.co/ieaaOkZb6y
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 26, 2023
Tehran’s expanded terror activities coincide with a domestic crisis. The regime is struggling with rising dissent, following a wave of nationwide uprisings since 2017. Iran’s leadership has resorted to an increased crackdown, using executions and mass arrests to stifle opposition at home. At the same time, it projects strength abroad through acts of terrorism and military support for various wars and conflicts globally to divert attention from its internal instability.
The regime’s involvement in the conflicts in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East, as well as its extensive global terror network, reflect a regime that is increasingly desperate to maintain its grip on power. Tehran’s reliance on proxy forces and foreign aggression serves to mask its deepening instability at home, where the regime is facing unprecedented levels of dissent.
The West can no longer afford to ignore the Iranian regime’s role in destabilizing both Europe and the broader international community. To effectively counter Tehran’s aggression, Western governments must take stronger action, not only through sanctions but by supporting the Iranian people’s movement for regime change, which offers the most sustainable solution to curbing Iran’s long-standing threat to global security.
