{"id":227871,"date":"2020-10-14T18:49:36","date_gmt":"2020-10-14T17:49:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=227871"},"modified":"2023-02-01T05:39:49","modified_gmt":"2023-02-01T04:39:49","slug":"iran-domestic-challenges-and-foreign-silence-leave-the-regime-feeling-vulnerable-but-emboldened","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/blog\/op-ed\/iran-domestic-challenges-and-foreign-silence-leave-the-regime-feeling-vulnerable-but-emboldened\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran: Domestic Challenges and Foreign Silence Leave the Regime Feeling Vulnerable, but Emboldened"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"The-Suppressive-State-of-Universities-in-Iran\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-51739\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/The-Suppressive-State-of-Universities-in-Iran.jpg\" alt=\"The Suppressive State of Universities in Iran\" width=\"1000\" height=\"591\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/The-Suppressive-State-of-Universities-in-Iran.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/The-Suppressive-State-of-Universities-in-Iran-300x177.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/The-Suppressive-State-of-Universities-in-Iran-768x454.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/The-Suppressive-State-of-Universities-in-Iran-696x411.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/>By: Alejo Vidal-Quadras<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Serious critics of Iran\u2019s theocratic regime have been warning for many years about the consequences of Western strategies that tend toward appeasement. Such strategies have a long history, dating back at least to the late 1980s when American and European leaders were eager to establish stable relations with an Iranian government that had survived eight years of war with neighboring Iraq. Their reluctance to alienate the Iranian regime ultimately led to all of those Western leaders turning a blind eye to what may have been the late 20th century\u2019s worst crime against humanity \u2013 a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/human-rights\/20932-the-1988-massacre-in-iran\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">massacre<\/a> of 30,000 political prisoners in the summer of 1988.<\/p>\n<p>That massacre and countless smaller-scale crackdowns on dissent over the past 32 years underscore the fact that the Iranian people stand to suffer the worst effects of Western appeasement. However, threats to Iran\u2019s domestic population often go hand-in-hand with threats to the regime\u2019s foreign adversaries. And if appeasement policies remain unchallenged within the halls of Western power, both categories of threat will only continue to get worse.<\/p>\n<p>If this was not clear from Iran\u2019s long history as both the most prolific abuser of the death penalty and the world\u2019s leading state sponsor of terrorism, it should have become clear two years ago when Iranian authorities tried to exploit their perceived impunity and harm the domestic Resistance movement by lashing out at its foreign base of support. While the People\u2019s Mojahedin Organization of Iran <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/english.mojahedin.org\/i\/primer-the-history-the-peoples-mojahedin-organization-iran\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(PMOI-MEK)<\/a> \u2013 the main target of the 1988 massacre \u2013 continues to operate \u201c<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/english.mojahedin.org\/t\/iranian-resistance-units\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Resistance Units<\/a>\u201d inside Iran, much of its leadership conducts organizing efforts from positions of exile in Albania and in France, where the MEK\u2019s parent coalition held international gatherings of expatriates and political supporters every summer between 2004 and 2018.<\/p>\n<p>In 2019, the National Council of Resistance of Iran moved its annual rally to a <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/multimedia\/free-iran-rally-in-mek-base-ashraf-3-in-albania\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">new compound<\/a> in Albania, and in 2020 it was moved <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-resistance\/live-report-ncris-free-iran-global-summit\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">online<\/a> as a result of the coronavirus pandemic. The latest French rally very nearly ended in tragedy, as Iranian agents hatched a plan to attack it, which was thwarted through the coordination of several European intelligence services. A subsequent French investigation confirmed that the bomb plot had been approved at the highest levels of the Iranian regime. But this came as little surprise, given that the mastermind of that plot turned out to be a high-ranking Iranian diplomat, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/ncri-statements\/iranian-diplomat-and-three-accomplices-on-trial-for-planned-bombing-of-a-massive-rally-in-paris\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Assadollah Assadi<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Iran news in brief, July 3, 2018\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_kyhYBQEiw5E\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FkyhYBQEiw5E%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/kyhYBQEiw5E\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT4M32S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2018-07-03T09:57:46Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_kyhYBQEiw5E\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FkyhYBQEiw5E%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Iran news in brief, July 3, 2018<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/kyhYBQEiw5E\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FkyhYBQEiw5E%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"Iran news in brief, July 3, 2018\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Iran news in brief, July 3, 2018 Four Arrested in Alleged Plot to Bomb Anti-Iran Gathering European security services arrested four people, including an Iranian diplomat, for allegedly planning to bomb an annual gathering of Iranian opposition groups outside Paris last Saturday. Asdollah Assadi, Iran\u2019s diplomat in Austria who ordered the terror attack, was arrested in Germany A terrorist diplomat of the clerical regime by the name of Asdollah Assadi, who was the main planner of the terrorist plot against the great gathering of Iranians in Paris, was arrested in Germany. The terrorist diplomat, who is the station chief of the Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS) in Vienna, has been stationed in Austria since August 2014. The two arrested terrorists are Amir Sadoni and Nassim Nomeni and are residents of Antwerp. Rudy Giuliani Issued a Statement on the Iranian Regime Terrorist Plot against FreeIran2018 Rally July 2, 2018 - Following the Belgian law enforcement\u2019s announcement of having discovered a Tehran-backed terrorist ring aiming to target Iranian dissidents during the Free Iran Gathering, which took place in Paris on June 30, Mayor Rudy Giuliani, lawyer to U.S. President Donald Trump, issued a statement, commending Belgian authorities for their efforts and condemning the Iranian regime for its sponsorship of terrorism across the globe. Giuliani was among the participants in the Free Iran Gathering, in which he delivered a speech in support of the Iranian people\u2019s uprising and the NCRI and PMOI\/MEK\u2019s efforts to establish democracy and freedom in Iran. Giuliani also met with Mrs. Maryam Rajavi, president-elect of the NCRI, and has been a long-time supporter of the Iranian Resistance. U.S. Softens Demand That Countries Stop All Iran Oil Imports The Trump administration is softening its earlier demand that countries like China, India and Turkey end all imports of Iranian oil by Nov. 4, as a top State Department official on Monday said the United States would allow reduced oil flows, in certain cases. \u201cWe are prepared to work with countries that are reducing their imports on a case-by-case basis,\u201d said Brian Hook, the department\u2019s director of policy and planning. His announcement was a delicate attempt at reassuring oil markets and allies that sanctions are not likely to hit them this fall \u2014 even if Iranian oil continues to flow around the world, as is likely the case. Protests to Water Salinity Spread To Other Cities Of Khuzestan Province In Iran Khorramshahr citizens came to the streets on Sunday, July 1, 2018, for the third consecutive day in protest to the water salinity crisis in the area. Following the uprisings, people in several other cities of Khuzestan province, including Bandar-e Emam Khomeyni, Abadan, Kut-e Abdollah and Ahvaz, also joined the protests and launched demonstrations. It has been reported that some protesters in the gatherings of Monday, July 2nd, in Ahvaz and Khorramshahr have been arrested. Shooting and Clashes by Iranian Agents with Protesting People Government forces clashed with protesting villagers in Zehuki on Monday afternoon, July 2, 2018, firing at them due to two barrels of gasoline inside a home in the Minab city, Hormozgan province, Iran. On Monday afternoon, government forces see two barrels of gasoline in a house in Zahuki village of Minab city in Hormozgan province and harass and attack the residents of the house. The people of the village came to help their fellow citizens and rushed their defense. However, the security forces, with the command of Iranian officials, immediately shoot at the protesting people with direct gunshots.\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p>The former third counselor of the Iranian embassy in Vienna, Assadi, was arrested shortly after the three known operatives under his command \u2013 an Iranian-Belgian couple to whom he had provided 500 grams of TATP explosive and another individual who had infiltrated the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/free-iran-gathering-paris-2018\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NCRI\u2019s gathering<\/a> ahead of time. Assadi\u2019s trial is now scheduled to begin in Belgium on November 27 and it will be the first instance of an Iranian diplomat actually being prosecuted for his role in terrorism. However, that role itself is not unique and supporters of the Iranian Resistance are hopeful that the trial will help to convince Western policymakers to reevaluate their approach to Iran and its agents.<\/p>\n<p>Those hopes and the underlying sense of urgency for a change in policy have both grown stronger in recent days. Last week it was revealed that in police interviews, Assadi resorted to threats of further terrorism as part of an effort to blackmail European authorities for his release. Calling attention to Iran\u2019s expansion of regional influence in the face of Western appeasement, the erstwhile diplomat declared that groups in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen were all \u201cwatching from the sidelines to see if Belgium would support them or not.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The MEK responded to this revelation over the weekend and said, \u201cAssadi\u2019s open threats only show how belligerent the Iranian regime has become in face of the appeasement policy of European states and once again remind the need for a firm policy toward the regime\u2019s foreign terrorism.\u201d Such statements constitute sound advice for Western powers in any event, but it is reasonable to assume that the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/pmoi-mek\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MEK<\/a> is far more worried about what the regime\u2019s foreign threats could portend for the Iranian people themselves.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past two years, many hundreds of pro-democracy activists have been killed in Iran as the regime struggles to exploit its impunity on the world stage while tightening the reins on domestic unrest. Dozens were fatally shot or tortured to death during one uprising at the beginning of 2018. And when Tehran faced no real consequences for those actions, it dramatically stepped up the repression in response to another <strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iran-protests-2019-update\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">uprising in November<\/a><\/strong> 2019. Then, 1,500 people <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/ncri-statements\/iran-protests\/27081-over-1-500-killed-in-the-iranian-people-s-nationwide-uprising-names-of-504-martyrs-released\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">were killed<\/a> in just a matter of days.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/stats.sender.net\/forms\/dGYVLa\/view\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly-Signe-up-logo-1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-219239 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Weekly-Signe-up-logo-1.png\" alt=\"Weekly-Signe-up-logo-1\" width=\"250\" height=\"83\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Thousands have been arrested through it all and yet the Iranian people continue to call for \u201cdeath to the dictator\u201d and to signal their desire for an end to the theocratic system and the establishment of a truly democratic system in line with Maryam Rajavi\u2019s \u201c<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/maryam-rajavis-ten-point-plan-for-future-iran\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">10-point plan<\/a>\u201d for the future of the country. Inevitably, this persistent unrest will signal to the regime that activism of the MEK and the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/about-ncri\/alternative\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NCRI<\/a> abroad remain a severe challenge to their own hold on power and it will strive to lash out again.<\/p>\n<p>The chances of Tehran trying to follow through on that goal may diminish if Assadi is convicted before a plan can take shape. Moreover, they are much more likely to diminish if the international community also takes other, stronger efforts to hold Iran accountable for its attempt to carry out a terrorist attack on European soil. These efforts could include multilateral sanctions or the closure of embassies like the one through which Assadi organized his bomb plot, but almost any change at all would be an improvement over the current tendency toward silence and appeasement.<\/p>\n<p>Such change has only become more imperative in light of the latest revelations about Assadi\u2019s interaction with European investigators. The 2018 terror plot was a threat against Western powers in its own right. Not only was it to take place on French soil, but its potential victims included hundreds of American and European dignitaries and supporters of the NCRI, including Rudy Giuliani, the US president\u2019s personal attorney. Even if Tehran wasn\u2019t further emboldened by a lack of internationally-enforced consequences for that plot, it surely would be so emboldened by a tepid Western response to Assadi\u2019s threat and the entire scenario could play itself out again.<\/p>\n<p>Such threats cannot reasonably be viewed as signs of anything other than impunity or desperation. And considering that Iran in recent years has faced growing challenges from its domestic population, but hardly any from the world community, it is safe to say that Assadi\u2019s threats showcase both impunity and desperation at once.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras\" class=\"wp-image-218196 size-thumbnail alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras-60x60.jpg 60w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><em>Alejo Vidal-Quadras, a professor of atomic and nuclear physics, was vice-president of the European Parliament from 1999 to 2014. He is President of the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/isjcommittee.com\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ)<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By: Alejo Vidal-Quadras Serious critics of Iran&rsquo;s theocratic regime have been warning for many years about the consequences of Western strategies that tend toward appeasement. Such strategies have a long [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":51739,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[71,188],"tags":[130,191,197,198,200,204,273],"class_list":{"0":"post-227871","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-blog","8":"category-op-ed","9":"tag-iran-protests","10":"tag-alejo-vidal-quadras","11":"tag-mek-iran","12":"tag-ncri","13":"tag-mek-in-albania","14":"tag-maryam-rajavi","15":"tag-assadollah-assadi"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran: Domestic Challenges and Foreign Silence Leave the Regime Feeling Vulnerable, but Emboldened - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"By: Alejo Vidal-Quadras Serious critics of Iran\u2019s theocratic regime have been warning for many years about the consequences of Western strategies that\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/blog\/iran-domestic-challenges-and-foreign-silence-leave-the-regime-feeling-vulnerable-but-emboldened\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran: Domestic Challenges and Foreign Silence Leave the Regime Feeling Vulnerable, but Emboldened - 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