{"id":238018,"date":"2021-04-15T08:30:59","date_gmt":"2021-04-15T13:30:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=238018"},"modified":"2023-02-01T04:58:51","modified_gmt":"2023-02-01T03:58:51","slug":"vulnerabilities-point-to-regime-change-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/vulnerabilities-point-to-regime-change-in-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"Vulnerabilities Point to Regime Change In Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/November_protests1_05102020.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"November_protests1_05102020\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-227318\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/November_protests1_05102020-300x168.jpg\" alt=\"November_protests1_05102020\" width=\"803\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/November_protests1_05102020-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/November_protests1_05102020.jpg 690w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 803px) 100vw, 803px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The latest incident at Iran\u2019s Natanz nuclear facility is also the latest symbol of the Iranian regime\u2019s thinly veiled vulnerability. Tehran has made a concerted effort to mask that vulnerability beneath provocative gestures on the political stage and in surrounding waterways, as well as persistent support for militant allies like Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels and Lebanese Hezbollah. But the resulting image of strength has been successively fractured by a number of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/fakhrizadeh-killing-irans-security-apparatus-under-scrutiny\/a-55761779\" rel=\"noopener\">setbacks<\/a> to the regime\u2019s objectives, of which the attack on Natanz is only the latest example.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Iran\u2019s inability to protect its own assets is not just a reminder of its vulnerability to outside attacks. It also signifies the erosive effects of political discord and slow economic collapse. Both of these trends have fueled an ascendant Resistance movement that now clearly encompasses all of Iranian society and has been responsible for at least three recent uprisings, and for those incidents that point to the likelihood of more to come.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Last month, as Iranian expatriates were celebrating their New Year holiday, Nowruz, the Iranian Resistance leader <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.maryam-rajavi.com\/en\/new-year-protesters-overthrow-religious-fascism\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Maryam Rajavi<\/a> observed that large-scale protests in Sistan and Baluchistan Province were signs that \u201cthe fire of the uprisings is rising from under the ashes of the coronavirus.\u201d By that time, the country had gone more than a year without protests that matched the scale of those that began in the final days of 2017, but Tehran\u2019s failure or refusal to manage the public health crisis left the general public with even more reasons to challenge the country\u2019s leadership and the theocratic system it upholds.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The Iranian people are sick of suffering the effects of Tehran\u2019s weakness and desperation and they are prepared to take actions leading to the overthrow and replacement of the existing regime. This goal was all but transparent during the uprising that began in December 2017, which featured unusually provocative slogans like \u201cdeath to the dictator.\u201d<br \/>\nIn <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iran-protests-2019-update\/\" rel=\"noopener\">November 2019<\/a>, the uprising encompassed nearly 200 cities and towns. It also resulted in even more intense repression by regime authorities. Whereas the first uprising gradually led to several dozen deaths from gunshots and torture, in 2019 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps opened fire on crowds almost immediately and killed approximately 1,500 people over the course of about two weeks. Later, Amnesty International issued a report detailing the systematic torture that protesters and activists were subjected to for months afterward.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Uprising in Southeast Iran and Retirees&rsquo; Protests Suggest Society&rsquo;s Restiveness\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_s6dDO691a98\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2Fs6dDO691a98%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/s6dDO691a98\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT2M18S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2021-03-12T17:16:16Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_s6dDO691a98\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2Fs6dDO691a98%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Uprising in Southeast Iran and Retirees\u2019 Protests Suggest Society\u2019s Restiveness<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/s6dDO691a98\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2Fs6dDO691a98%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"Uprising in Southeast Iran and Retirees&rsquo; Protests Suggest Society&rsquo;s Restiveness\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"On February 28, 2021, pensioners in Iran held nationwide protests for the fourth consecutive week. The protests took place simultaneous with the uprising in Sistan &amp; Baluchistan, southeast Iran. Retirees held demonstrations in 11 cities in 10 provinces. The regime\u2019s economic mismanagement &amp; corruption have devastated Iran\u2019s economy. Thus, all walks of life are grappling with poverty &amp; a high inflation rate. Hojatollah Abdolmaleki, deputy director of the so-called Imam Khomeini Relief Committee: \u201cIn 2018, the average cost of food per person was 150,000 tomans per month, but now it has reached 600,000 tomans.\u201d State-run Resalat daily: Retirees stage protests because their \u201cpensions do not even answer their needs to purchase food.\u201d These factors have turned Iranian society into a powder keg. The daily protests in Iran, including retirees\u2019 protests &amp; the uprising in Sistan &amp; Baluchistan foretell a nationwide uprising. Protest movements have features that distinguish them from previous ones: Extensiveness &amp; intensity. State-run Etemad daily, Feb 28, 2021: \u201cThe wild horse of unrest is going from one city to another, leaving many injuries &amp; dangers in the system.\u201d State-run Jahan-e Sanat daily, Feb 28: These protests are like \u201ca time bomb under the skin of society. No one knows when it will explode.\u201d These signs foretell that Iran is on the verge of a revolution. Read More: https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/IranNCR\/ https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy Subscribe to NCRI weekly newsletter t.ly\/MybJ #Iran #IranProtests #Retireess\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">This political violence is fairly typical of the Iranian regime\u2019s behavior when its vulnerability is exposed. It is a particularly vivid and deadly example of that behavior, but it falls within the same general category as the bluster and ultimatums that come to define the regime\u2019s interactions with its Western adversaries over the past few years, including those who are defending the Iranian position regarding the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/nuclear\/iran-did-the-maximum-pressure-weakened-the-jcpoa-or-rather-it-exposed-its-weaknesses\/\" rel=\"noopener\">2015 nuclear deal<\/a>, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Tehran would have its negotiating partners believe that its nuclear program has flourished in the wake of US withdrawal from that agreement. The regime\u2019s leading officials insist that the economy has successfully weathered the re-imposition and expansion of US sanctions, putting Tehran in a position of strength amidst renewed efforts to restore the status quo. As such, they have been demanding that the US removes all of those sanctions before the Iranian regime takes even one step toward reversing its myriad violations of the JCPOA\u2019s restrictions on nuclear enrichments, stockpiling, and development.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Unfortunately, there are signs that some Western policymakers have been taken in by such narratives and were prepared to push for acquiescence to the mullahs\u2019 demands. The Natanz incident undermined this narrative while also reminding about the illusory nature of the broader image of strength that Tehran is working to present.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Now, the international community must take care not to let Iran\u2019s propaganda get the upper hand again. This requires fully appreciating the effects of prior incidents, as well as the recurring failures of Iran\u2019s response. The relevant incidents are manifold and diverse. They include breaches of Iran\u2019s security, but also instances of political fragmentation within the ruling system, and recurring domestic challenges to the regime\u2019s hold on power. They include a growing catalog of social and economic crises that Tehran has utterly failed to address in any way other than by courting still greater resentment among the general population.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">As long as the international community isn\u2019t taken in by Tehran\u2019s efforts to portray a false image of strength, the regime will not be able to compensate for its own vulnerability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The crackdown on the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-november-2019-uprising-and-its-amplifications\/\" rel=\"noopener\">November 2019<\/a> uprising did not prevent Iranians from coming back out into the streets in massive numbers again before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. And the coronavirus was only a temporary setback to the process of pro-democratic revolt. When that process resumes in full, no one should dare deny the signs of Tehran\u2019s vulnerability or, as the case may be, its imminent overthrow.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/stats.sender.net\/forms\/dGYVLa\/view\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly-Signe-up-logo-1\" class=\"size-full wp-image-219239 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/09\/Weekly-Signe-up-logo-1.png\" alt=\"Weekly-Signe-up-logo-1\" width=\"250\" height=\"83\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The latest incident at Iran&rsquo;s Natanz nuclear facility is also the latest symbol of the Iranian regime&rsquo;s thinly veiled vulnerability. Tehran has made a concerted effort to mask that vulnerability [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":227318,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[129,130,194,229,494],"class_list":{"0":"post-238018","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-protests","8":"tag-iran","9":"tag-iran-protests","10":"tag-protests-nov-2019","11":"tag-irans-economy","12":"tag-iran_election_2021"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Vulnerabilities Point to Regime Change In Iran - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The latest incident at Iran\u2019s Natanz nuclear facility is also the latest symbol of the Iranian regime\u2019s thinly veiled vulnerability. 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