{"id":238198,"date":"2021-04-18T10:40:26","date_gmt":"2021-04-18T15:40:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=238198"},"modified":"2023-01-27T14:14:47","modified_gmt":"2023-01-27T13:14:47","slug":"iran-the-cause-of-iranian-regimes-increasingly-explicit-nuclear-threats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/nuclear\/iran-the-cause-of-iranian-regimes-increasingly-explicit-nuclear-threats\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran: The Cause Of Iranian Regime\u2019s Increasingly Explicit Nuclear Threats"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Iran-nuclear-program-09012021\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-232868 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Iran-nuclear-program-09012021.jpg\" alt=\"Iran's regime announced it will breach its commitments under 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. This a part of regime\u2019s nuclear extortion.\u00a0\" width=\"800\" height=\"487\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Iran-nuclear-program-09012021.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Iran-nuclear-program-09012021-300x183.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Iran-nuclear-program-09012021-768x468.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Iran-nuclear-program-09012021-150x91.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/Iran-nuclear-program-09012021-696x424.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">This past week, the Iranian regime announced that it was beginning work on the enrichment of uranium to 60 percent fissile purity. In service of that goal, said Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, \u201cAnother 1,000 centrifuges with 50 percent more capacity will be added to the existing machines in Natanz.\u201d The announcement underscores that Tehran is at least continuing and more likely accelerating its violations of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action at the very same time its European negotiating partners are doing everything feasible to reestablish that 2015 nuclear deal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The threat of 60 percent enrichment is just the latest confirmation that Iran has not been taking negotiations seriously. Ever since the prospect of a US return to the JCPOA emerged, Iranian officials have been insisting that US sanctions must be lifted immediately and in their entirety, without regard for the status of Tehran\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/nuclear\/iran-nuclear-deal-crisis-who-is-to-blame\/\" rel=\"noopener\">comprehensive violations<\/a> of the agreement.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The US Deputy Secretary of State, Wendy Sherman, said during her confirmation hearing, \u201cThe facts on the ground have changed, the geopolitics of the region has changed, and the way forward must similarly change.\u201d Such commentary is made more remarkable by the fact that Sherman led the American negotiating team when the JCPOA was taking shape under the Obama administration. If she recognizes the need for change, then Tehran cannot possibly hope to convince the world that there is greater value in the status quo. And yet, that is exactly what it has been trying to do, for the simple reason that the Iranian regime has no alternative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Of course, it would have plenty of opportunities if it had ever been willing to negotiate in good faith. But the regime\u2019s unwillingness to even take a small, lateral step away from its established position is a testament to the fact that the provisions of the JCPOA were the absolute maximum that Tehran would ever have been willing to accept. This is cause for alarm, considering that the US withdrawal from that agreement in May 2018 was supported by large swaths of commentators and policymakers, both inside the US and among its allies, particularly in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Iran: Fake News or Regime&rsquo;s New Tactic on its Nuclear Program\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_SBdPq4Iv3Vg\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FSBdPq4Iv3Vg%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SBdPq4Iv3Vg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT10M56S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2021-02-24T09:15:29Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_SBdPq4Iv3Vg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FSBdPq4Iv3Vg%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Iran: Fake News or Regime\u2019s New Tactic on its Nuclear Program<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/SBdPq4Iv3Vg\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FSBdPq4Iv3Vg%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"Iran: Fake News or Regime&rsquo;s New Tactic on its Nuclear Program\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Mahmoud Alavi, the Iranians regime\u2019s Minister of Intelligence and Security, recently acknowledged in unprecedented fashion that the mullahs are seeking to build nuclear weapons. Citing a decree issued by the regime\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei he said, \u201cThe fatwa forbids the production of nuclear weapons, but if they push Iran in those directions, it is not Iran\u2019s fault. Those who pushed Iran in that direction will be to blame.\u201d So, let us have a deeper look into how the regime, despite reaping the benefits of the nuclear deal, never stopped its nuclear weapons initiative. In July 2015, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the Iran nuclear deal, was signed between the Iranian regime and the P5+1, including the United States, France, United Kingdom, Russia, China and Germany. The main goal of the JCPOA was refraining the regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. While the ratification of the JCPOA made a lot of noise, the regime\u2019s approach in the agreement was suspicious after years of violating its obligations. Alavi acknowledges that the regime is producing an atomic bomb despite regime officials denying the military aspects of its nuclear program since the Iranian Resistance exposed the Natanz enrichment and Arak heavy water sites in August 2002. Years later, regime officials leaked facts about their JCPOA violations. Head of Iran\u2019s Atomic Energy Organization Ali Akbar Salehi revealed in January 2019 how the regime lied to the P5+1 about filling the Arak reactor pipes with cement. Later in November 2019 Salehi acknowledged that while the regime accepted JCPOA articles, it had countermeasures to continue uranium enrichment. On May 8, 2019, the mullahs officially took their first step in violation of the JCPOA\u2019s low-enriched uranium stockpile limitation. The regime increased its low-enriched uranium stockpile to over 300 Kgs. In his interview with CNN on February 1st, Iranian regime foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif confirmed that the regime has reproduced 8,000 pounds, or 3,600 Kg, of low-enriched uranium. This is nearly half of the amount that the regime had before the JCPOA and enough for three bombs, according to the Arms Control Association (ACA). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has also confirmed that Iran had installed and begun operating advanced centrifuges in an underground section at the Natanz site. At the same time, the regime has also speeded up its ballistic missile program. On February 8, the Bloomberg news agency quoted the United Nations saying that the clerical regime had received \u201csensitive parts\u201d from North Korea for \u201cits long-range missiles production project\u201d and that \u201cits last shipment dates back to 2020.\u201d On February 5, the Wall Street Journal wrote that IAEA inspectors had found traces of enriched uranium at two sites that the Iranian regime had long prevented from being inspected, which \u201ccould indicate Iran has undertaken work on nuclear weapons, based on where it was found.\u201d On February 10, the IAEA issued a report saying Iran has produced uranium metal at a facility in Isfahan, in further violation of the 2015 nuclear deal. Uranium metal can be used as a component in nuclear weapons. Iran had signed under the JCPOA up to a 15-year ban on \u201cproducing or acquiring plutonium or uranium metals or their alloys\u201d. In a word, the regime has publicly accelerated its paces to obtain nuclear weapons. All the parts of this puzzle clearly indicate that the JCPOA has failed to deny either Iran\u2019s capability or means of obtaining nuclear weapons. The regime\u2019s nuclear infrastructure had remained intact. Thus, everything was left at the regime\u2019s mercy. Second, it shows that even after the JCPOA, Iran had continued its clandestine nuclear program, such that it was able to resume 20% uranium enrichment immediately and other related activities. Given Iran\u2019s past failures to uphold its promises, no one can confidently trust the Iranian regime. Through such posturing, Tehran is engaged in nuclear blackmail and seeks to extract more concessions from the new US administration. Read More: https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/IranNCR\/ https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy Subscribe to NCRI weekly newsletter t.ly\/MybJ #Iran #JCPOA #nuclearprogram\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Famously, some of the most prominent of those critics insisted that the JCPOA as written would not block the path to an Iranian nuclear weapon but would pave it. That sentiment was based in part on concerns over what the agreement had left out and in part on an understanding of how the Iranian regime was likely to behave in the face of weak enforcement of its provisions and limited consequences for violating them. The worry was that if international inspections focused only on declared sites and activities, then Tehran would continue to advance secret elements of its nuclear program, then resume public measures once the JCPOA\u2019s sunset clauses kicked in.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">This was a well-founded concern, considering that secrecy had always been a top-line feature of the Iranian nuclear program. The very existence of its military dimensions was unknown to the world until the Fordo and Arak nuclear facilities <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2005\/08\/08\/international\/chronology-of-irans-nuclear-program.html\" rel=\"noopener\">were revealed in 2002<\/a> by the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Since then, the Iranian regime and the Western world have been engaged in a game of tug-of-war, with Tehran repeatedly pretending to loosen its grip in order to catch its adversaries off guard when it moves to elevate the public profile of its nuclear activities once again.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">This strategy was described by none other than the Iranian regime\u2019s outgoing President Hassan Rouhani in a speech he delivered earlier in his career after serving as Iran\u2019s chief nuclear negotiator. Rouhani boasted that by maintaining a \u201ccalm environment,\u201d the regime was able to extend the timeframe of discussions and earn itself a degree of freedom from international scrutiny, thereby allowing the nuclear program to make further advances before publicly agreeing to certain restrictions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The history of this deception should have prompted Western powers to take a harder line ahead of the JCPOA\u2019s signing, or at least to be more responsive to signs that Iran was flouting the spirit of the agreement. But this proved not to be the case with any of the Western signatories until the US pulled out. And even then, the Europeans remained equally if not more willing to overlook Iran\u2019s provocative behaviors in the interest of preserving the agreement.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Iran nuclear deal crisis: Who is to blame?\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_qoO_O4lrLJk\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FqoO_O4lrLJk%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/qoO_O4lrLJk\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT7M18S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2021-04-17T09:24:46Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_qoO_O4lrLJk\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FqoO_O4lrLJk%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Iran nuclear deal crisis: Who is to blame?<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/qoO_O4lrLJk\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FqoO_O4lrLJk%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"Iran nuclear deal crisis: Who is to blame?\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"April 17, 2021\u2014World powers have been discussing the Iran nuclear deal, a possible U.S. return to the 2015 agreement and Tehran\u2019s compliance with the terms. Following the first round of talks regime Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted the following: Iran proposes logical path to full JCPOA compliance: -US\u2014which caused this crisis\u2014should return to full compliance first; -Iran will reciprocate following rapid verification; -All Trump sanctions were anti-JCPOA &amp; must be removed\u2014w\/o distinction between arbitrary designations. Insistence on the U.S. taking the first step by returning into compliance first and lifting all sanctions is Tehran\u2019s main demand. This talking point is constantly pushed by the regime and relayed by its network of apologists\/lobbyists in the West. Now, is what the Iranian regime claiming even true? Did the U.S. actually cause this crisis? Let\u2019s take a look at the facts. The 2015 nuclear deal, known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was reached in July 2015. While Tehran and pro-appeasement voices across the U.S. and Europe may claim that the previous U.S. administration first violated the JCPOA by exiting the deal in May 2018, facts prove otherwise. On December 8, 2015, the Institute for Science and International Studies published an analysis of a report issued by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on the Possible Military Dimensions of Iran\u2019s Nuclear Program. It is specifically stated that Tehran violated the JCPOA by refusing to fully cooperate with the IAEA investigating the Possible Military Dimensions of its nuclear program. On July 7, 2016, Fox News reported citing the German domestic intelligence agency\u2019s annual report specifically highlighting that Iran pursued a \u201cclandestine\u201d path toward obtaining illicit nuclear technology and equipment from German companies \u201cat what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level.\u201d On June 6, 2017, Reuters reported that the Iranians had produced excess heavy water, illegally, at least twice, which they sold for profit. A quarterly IAEA report on Iran said Tehran\u2019s stock of heavy water had reached 128.2 tonnes, which a senior diplomat described as \u201cvery high\u201d. Ever since the JCPOA was implemented Iran refused to allow inspections into its military sites. This in itself is a violation of the nuclear deal based on the JCPOA\u2019s relevant language. On September 20, 2017, the Iranians exceeded the limits on advanced centrifuge research and development, by assembling more than half a dozen IR-8 rotor assemblies and operating 13-15 IR-6 centrifuges in a single cascade, according to reports. Less than two weeks later, on October 1, 2017, a Fox News report revealed that Iran is likely violating Section T of the JCPOA, banning \u201cactivities which could contribute to the development of a nuclear explosive device,\u201d for example using computer models simulating a nuclear bomb, or designing multi-point, explosive detonation systems. On October 9, 2017, German intelligence reported yet again that in 2015 and 2016, when the U.S. was still part of the JCPOA and in the final years of the Obama administration, Iran attempted more than one hundred times to obtain illicit nuclear technology, as reported by Fox News. The next day, on October 10, 2017, Fox News reported that the Iranian opposition coalition NCRI released critical information showing that Iran\u2019s research and development, as well as nuclear activities, were continuing at the Parchin military site, out of reach of IAEA inspectors. On January 22, 2019, Ali Akbar Salehi, head of the regime\u2019s Atomic Energy Organization, explained in a state TV interview how the regime used deceptive measures to mislead the international community while claiming to have abided by the JCPOA. Iran did not dismantle the core of the plutonium reactor at its Arak site, as required by the deal. https:\/\/youtu.be\/ZMvqkmWFWsY As we see, Iran\u2019s regime has been in violation of the JCPOA from day one, meaning during the Obama years and far before the next administration exited the deal in May 2018. Therefore, this argument by Zarif, parroted by his network of apologists and lobbyists in the West in order to garner support from pro-appeasement circles, is easily debunked. Iran\u2019s regime has been in violation of the highly flawed and obviously failed 2015 nuclear deal. Furthermore, there is no indication that this regime can be trusted in any future agreements. Music: I Am a Man Who Will Fight for Your Honor by Chris Zabriskie is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/ Source: http:\/\/chriszabriskie.com\/honor\/ Artist: http:\/\/chriszabriskie.com\/ https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/IranNCR\/ https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy Subscribe to NCRI weekly newsletter t.ly\/MybJ\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The latest developments represent a significant challenge to that posture, insofar as they demonstrate not only that Tehran remains committed to advancing its nuclear development but also that it is doing so with the end-goal of nuclear weapons capability in mind. Nuclear experts generally agree that the 20 percent enrichment already being performed at Iranian nuclear facilities is quite enough to satisfy the peaceful objectives that Tehran has always insisted are behind its nuclear program. There is virtually no practical benefit to be gained from the costly process of further escalation, other than using it in an effort to intimidate the West into providing further concessions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The same can be said of the regime\u2019s previous announcement that it would be producing uranium metal, a key component in the core of a nuclear warhead. Some Western policymakers are no doubt eager to downplay the significance of such measures and to dismiss them as having been brought on by the previous US administration\u2019s prior withdrawal. But those policymakers cannot in good faith ignore the fact that uranium metal and 60 percent enrichment only make sense as retaliation if they are undertaken in service of the goal of nuclear weapons capability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The reality of that goal was <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/ncri-statements\/statement-nuclear\/iran-intelligence-minister-make-the-unprecedented-admission-that-the-regime-is-after-building-a-nuclear-bomb\/\" rel=\"noopener\">confirmed<\/a> in February by Iran\u2019s Intelligence Minister, Mahmoud Alavi. In remarks carried by state media, he called attention to the fatwa from the regime\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which supposedly proves Iran\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/inside-source-reports\/iran-s-nuclear-weapons-program\/\" rel=\"noopener\">nuclear program<\/a> is peaceful in nature, but then he promptly undercut that longstanding talking point by declaring, \u201cIf they [the West] push Iran in those directions, it is not Iran\u2019s fault. Those who pushed Iran in that direction will be to blame.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">This statement has received far too little attention in the midst of renewed nuclear negotiations, and it is not at all clear whether more attention will be offered now that Iran is threatening to take a major intermediary step toward manufacturing a nuclear warhead. If it isn\u2019t, then Western powers will be sending a clear message that they are more committed to preserving the nuclear deal as written than they are to actually prevent Iran from obtaining weapons of mass destruction over the long term.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">What the US and Europe ought to do instead is further intensify pressure on the Iranian regime and thereby demonstrate that negotiations aside, the more Iran pushes in provocative directions, the more consequences it will face for its actions. This should have been the Western position when Rouhani was deceiving the world with a \u201ccalm environment,\u201d and it should have remained the Western position when Iran\u2019s major opponents were insisting upon something stronger than the JCPOA. Now, the international community has an unprecedented opportunity to make up for past mistakes. If it does not act appropriately, the regime <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/blog\/op-ed\/iran-ignores-its-own-violations-to-present-one-sided-narrative-on-nuclear-deal\/\" rel=\"noopener\">will use the<\/a> resources released from sanction relief to enhance its nuclear program. Then the prospect of a nuclear Iran may become virtually inevitable.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/stats.sender.net\/forms\/dGYVLa\/view\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly-Signe-up-logo-300x100\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-219239 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Weekly-Signe-up-logo-300x100.png\" alt=\"Weekly-Signe-up-logo-300x100\" width=\"300\" height=\"100\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This past week, the Iranian regime announced that it was beginning work on the enrichment of uranium to 60 percent fissile purity. In service of that goal, said Deputy Foreign [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":232868,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[129,198,217],"class_list":{"0":"post-238198","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nuclear","8":"tag-iran","9":"tag-ncri","10":"tag-irans-nuclear-program"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran: The Cause Of Iranian Regime\u2019s Increasingly Explicit Nuclear Threats - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"This past week, the Iranian regime announced that it was beginning work on the enrichment of uranium to 60 percent fissile purity. 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