<\/p>\n
NCRI Staff<\/p>\n
NCRI –\u00a0The quality of relations with European countries, including opening an EU office in Tehran, has turned into a controversy and subject of a new conflict between Iranian regime\u2019s two rival bands.<\/p>\n
This is while the US president explicitly states that he does not approve the nuclear deal (JCPOA) unless it goes under revision, and if the US Congress and the EU fail to do that, he willpull the United States out of the agreement.<\/p>\n
The Iranian regime on the other hand maintains that the nuclear deal couldn\u2019t be subject to any change and that it won\u2019t accede to any kind of re-negotiation over the deal.<\/p>\n
Although it seems there\u2019s no room left for Europe to intervene, but the European countries, particularly France as the frontrunner in this regard, are still pursuing the matter, all while a heated controversy over the issue, and opening the EU office in Tehran in particular, is going on within the regime itself.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s obvious that Europe is seeking its own economic interests out of this conflict. It goes without saying that economy can only breathe and live in a secure environment, but when the war monster has cast its shadow over the region and the parties involved address each other with the \u2018threat and missile\u2019 language, there would be no room for trade, investment, and economic interests. So, Europe is seeking to first return peace to this turbulent region; a peace that, as French President Emmanuel Macron has put it, is threatened by Iranian regime\u2019s \u201cextremely worrying missile program\u201d, and \u201cits interventions in the region.\u201d (Reuters, October 15, 2017).<\/p>\n
Macron then added that \u201cFrance is going to adopt an approach that will serve to complement the nuclear deal.\u201d (Regime\u2019s state TV, November 9, 2017).<\/p>\n
So, the EU, France in particular, is sending a two-sided message to the US and the Iranian regime. The US side of the message says \u201cdon\u2019t rip up the nuclear deal as it facilitates trade relations with the Iranian regime. In exchange, we, the EU, will fulfill your (US) demands by complementing the deal and adding new clauses that will involve limiting Iranian regime\u2019s missile program and its interventions in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n
The message to the Iranian regime on the other hand is that \u201cif you want the nuclear deal to stay, Sanctions lifted, and foreign investment made, you must accede to nuclear deal\u2019s complements, aka second and third nuclear-deal- like agreements; you must quit your missile program, stop intervention in countries in the region, and pull out your forces from Syria and Iraq.\u2019<\/p>\n
Regime\u2019s reaction to the message, however, is twofold. The group close to regime leader Ali Khamenei strongly rejects any kind of negotiation over regime\u2019s so-called \u2018elements of power\u2019, severely attacking the side close to regime president Hassan Rouhani and even referring to them as traitors. \u201cNow that the West believes they\u2019ve succeeded to harness Iran\u2019s nuclear program through the nuclear deal, they are now turning their attention to another aspect of Iran\u2019s power, namely its missile program. Now, if anyone in the country encourages missile talks, it could no longer be regarded as a miscalculation\u201d, says state-run Arya news agency on November 12, 2017.<\/p>\n
Yet the other one warns the other side, saying \u201copening the EU office in Tehran is a political ransom as the office\u2019s main concern would be dealing with human rights issues.\u201d (State-run Raja news website, November 12, 2017)<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, a newspaper close to Rouhani explicitly asserts that \u201cthe EU has the ability to stop current threats against Iran, provided that Iran cooperates with the Europeans on some issues. We should not lose the EU, even if we\u2019ll be forced to pay a ransom.\u201d (State-run Arman newspaper, November 11, 2017)<\/p>\n
But the reason why the group close to Khmanei reacts hysterically with regard to opening the EU office in Tehran, is because the EU has declared that opening an office in Tehran would be conditional on regime\u2019s acceding to second and third nuclear-deal- like accords, requiring the regime to stop its missile program and interventions in the region. So, opening the EU office in Tehran has turned into a symbol of regime\u2019s acceding to second and third deals. As a result, the conflicts between regime\u2019s two rival bands over opening the EU office in Teharn could imply that secret talks between the regime and the EU are underway.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, there\u2019s yet another factor adding to regime\u2019s fear of losing its missile program and the lever to export terrorism, and that is the role the EU office could play to trouble the regime for its human rights violations. The same factor to which regime\u2019s deputy for chief justice \u2018Mohammad-Javad Larijani\u2019 has referred. (Regime judiciary\u2019s Mizan news agency, November 12, 2017)<\/p>\n
But since Khamenei is the one who calls all the shots and he\u2019s so far remained silent in this regard, it\u2019s not still clear whether the regime will accede to opening the EU office in Tehran, or actually to second and third nuclear-deal- like agreements, or not.<\/p>\n
But Khamenei\u2019s remaining silent could signal that at least he\u2019s given the green light to behind- the-scenes talks. So, it would be quite probable that he once again acts like he did during the nuclear talks by adopting a dual approach. Apparently and while addressing regime forces, Khamenei frowns at Europe and declares any kind of negotiations over missile program and export of terrorism as regime\u2019s red line, but actually he has authorized Rouhani to secretly initiate negotiations and is even closely supervising the talks.<\/p>\n
It\u2019s still possible that Khamenei resorts to such desperate moves like firing missile to Riyadh, thus to gain a better position in the balance of power and pressure the other side to make concessions; an attempt which proved to totally work to regime\u2019s disadvantage, raising the necessity to harness regime\u2019s missile program as the first priority. In any case, Khamenei has no option but to choose between being handed the second and third poisoned chalices, or standing against the international community; a choice between regime\u2019s suicide and death.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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