{"id":241539,"date":"2021-06-15T07:07:09","date_gmt":"2021-06-15T12:07:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=241539"},"modified":"2023-01-30T09:09:14","modified_gmt":"2023-01-30T08:09:14","slug":"e3-rightly-condemns-irans-nuclear-activities-but-should-also-outline-consequences","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/blog\/op-ed\/e3-rightly-condemns-irans-nuclear-activities-but-should-also-outline-consequences\/","title":{"rendered":"E3 Rightly Condemns Iran\u2019s Nuclear Activities, but Should Also Outline Consequences"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Iranvienna-talks\"<\/p>\n

By: Alejo Vidal-Quadras <\/strong><\/p>\n

The United Kingdom, France, and Germany presented a joint statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday expressing deep concern over the advancement of Iran\u2019s nuclear program and the effects of its systematic violations of the 2015 agreement<\/a> known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Although critics of Iran\u2019s conduct should welcome any such statement from the parties most responsible for keeping the JCPOA<\/a> on life support, they should also recognize that with this particular position the E3 is essentially preaching to the choir. The statement served mainly to repeat back to the IAEA the very same observations that that UN body had made in its own report earlier in the week.<\/p>\n

The E3\u2019s condemnation of Iran\u2019s \u201cescalatory steps\u201d and \u201cirreversible consequences for Iran\u2019s nuclear capabilities\u201d seems to at least indicate that European authorities are paying attention to the warnings offered by the IAEA. However, that condemnation will remain toothless for as long as the three countries refuse to specify any retaliatory measures they might undertake in order to hold the Iranian regime accountable. The language of the E3 statement is weak to the point of being non-committal, except when it comes to the question of whether the JCPOA<\/a> will remain in place despite Iran\u2019s more than two-year-long violations of its terms.<\/p>\n

After thanking the IAEA and its Director-General Rafael Grossi for the report, Wednesday\u2019s statement immediately declared that the UK, France, and Germany \u201cremain fully committed\u201d to restoring the existing agreement. But this runs contrary to the advice that Grossi offered in advance of the report\u2019s release when he publicly criticized Tehran for a lack of credibility and declared that \u201cit is not possible\u201d to simply return to the JCPOA as written, now that \u201cIran has accumulated knowledge, has accumulated centrifuges and has accumulated material.\u201d<\/p>\n

Grossi recommended, instead, that ongoing talks in Vienna by JCPOA signatories should aim to address Iran\u2019s more recent advancements via \u201can agreement within an agreement.\u201d Such statements only reinforce the challenges already posed by Iran\u2019s intransigence in the Vienna talks and in diplomatic discussions more generally.<\/p>\n

Since before the relevant meetings began in early May, Iranian officials have been insisting that the only outcome they would accept was the immediate and comprehensive suspension of all economic sanctions that were re-imposed or newly imposed by the United States after then-President Donald Trump pulled out of the JCPOA in May 2018. Through six rounds of negotiations, there has been no sign of Iran\u2019s position softening, even as the new American administration floated proposals for a compromise agreement.<\/p>\n

The E3 evidently remain unwilling to take such assertive action, even as they demonstrate some awareness of the regime\u2019s intransigence.<\/p>\n

Thus, the demands in Wednesday\u2019s statement fail to reflect the situation described in the IAEA report. Its authors continued to urge a simple return to the status quo despite the fact that the very same statement highlighted issues that have made that goal untenable. The E3 criticize Tehran for continuing its escalatory behavior \u201cat a time when all JCPOA participants and the United States are engaged in substantive discussions.\u201d But they emphasize that the goal of those discussions is merely to \u201crestore the JCPOA\u201d and they describe Tehran\u2019s actions only as \u201cregrettable.\u201d<\/p>\n

These relatively gentle phrases appear in the same paragraph as the reference to \u201cirreversible consequences\u201d and a paragraph before the E3 specify that those consequences specifically include \u201cnuclear weapons-related knowledge gains.\u201d By pairing such a dramatic description of Tehran\u2019s malign activity with feckless language regarding the Western response, the E3 risk strengthening a sense of impunity that has developed among Iranian regime authorities over more than four decades of mostly permissive Western policies.<\/p>\n

This permissiveness was arguably underscored by the fact that the E3\u2019s response to the damning content of the IAEA report was directed back at the UN nuclear agency instead of at the Iranian regime. Although Wednesday\u2019s statement did \u201curge Iran to stop and to reverse any action contrary to the JCPOA,\u201d its conclusion implied that the main purpose was to encourage Director General Grossi and the IAEA to continue with monitoring activities that they are clearly already committed to, but that have become steadily more difficult to maintain in recent months as a result of Iranian regime obstructionism.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, it is still very likely that the response from the E3 will be to focus its efforts on convincing the US to lift economic sanctions and thus secure Iran\u2019s commitment to re-implementing the JCPOA. What European officials should be doing, however, is developing contingency plans for when Iranian regime\u2019s negotiating position remains entrenched late into this month and beyond. Instead of pressuring the US to overlook \u201cirreversible nuclear weapons-related knowledge gains\u201d by the Iranian regime and cease exerting pressure on it, the E3 should resolve to add to that pressure through their own sanctions and diplomatic measures.<\/p>\n

\"Weekly-Signe-up-logo-1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

In absence of this coordination, there are only two feasible options from the Vienna talks: either the US capitulates to Iranian intimidation and Tehran reclaims all the economic benefits of the JPOCA without facing any consequences for its \u201cescalatory steps\u201d or else the existing, unilateral pressure remains in place and Tehran adds to those steps in a way that further shrinks its nuclear breakout period.<\/p>\n

It is difficult to overestimate how much that window has already shrunk during the past two years and especially during the past several weeks. According to the IAEA report, Iran has produced more than two kilograms of uranium metal since March and about 2.4 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium just since the start of May. The former substance is a key component for the core of a nuclear weapon and the latter is just a small step away from being further enriched into weapons-grade uranium. Furthermore, the IAEA report underscores Tehran\u2019s ongoing refusal to explain the presence of nuclear material in at least three undisclosed sites, which raises the possibility that its stockpiles are even larger than available data suggests.<\/p>\n

Of this latter issue, the E3 statement says that the regime has made it \u201charder for the international community to assure themselves that Iran\u2019s activities remain exclusively peaceful.\u201d This is an understatement, but a potentially significant statement nonetheless, provided that the policymakers behind it actually prepare a plan for what to do when it becomes impossible to deny that Iran\u2019s nuclear weapons aspirations are still alive and fully active.<\/p>\n

\"Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras\"<\/a>
Dr. Alejo Vidal-Quadras<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Alejo Vidal-Quadras, a professor of atomic and nuclear physics, was vice-president of the European Parliament from 1999 to 2014. He is President of the\u00a0International Committee In Search of Justice (ISJ)<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By: Alejo Vidal-Quadras The United Kingdom, France, and Germany presented a joint statement to the International Atomic Energy Agency on Wednesday expressing deep concern over the advancement of Iran’s nuclear […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":241540,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[188],"tags":[129,191,198,217,418],"class_list":{"0":"post-241539","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-op-ed","8":"tag-iran","9":"tag-alejo-vidal-quadras","10":"tag-ncri","11":"tag-irans-nuclear-program","12":"tag-jcpoa"},"yoast_head":"\nE3 Condemns Iran\u2019s Nuclear Activities, but Should Outline Consequences<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The E3 presented a joint statement to the IAEA on Wednesday expressing deep concern over the advancement of Iran\u2019s nuclear program\" \/>\n<meta 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