{"id":245820,"date":"2021-08-31T02:04:55","date_gmt":"2021-08-31T07:04:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=245820"},"modified":"2023-01-31T10:29:19","modified_gmt":"2023-01-31T09:29:19","slug":"irans-problematical-electricity-shortage-under-the-clerical-regime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/blog\/op-ed\/irans-problematical-electricity-shortage-under-the-clerical-regime\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Problematical Electricity Shortage Under the Clerical Regime"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"IRGC-Power-Plant-NCRI\"By Aladdin Touran<\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran is the victim of successive blackouts and power outages of the national grid. While the country\u00a0<\/span>ranked 12th in the world<\/span><\/a>\u00a0last year in terms of electricity generation, people struggle with frequent<\/a> and unannounced blackouts in the heat of summer. The situation has shocked even the ruling regime with cries of “Death to Khamenei” in the east of Tehran following the power outage on July 3rd<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The outgoing\u00a0Minister of\u00a0<\/span>Energy\u00a0Ardakanian<\/span><\/a>\u00a0of Hassan Rouhani\u2019s government\u00a0said that the power outage was due to the premature warming of the air and the decrease in rainfall<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohammad Hassan\u00a0<\/span>Motavilizadeh, CEO of\u00a0Tavanir<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0on April 23 said\u00a0that\u00a0\u00a0the\u00a0reduction in the volume of water in dam reservoirs, which reduces the production of hydropower by\u00a040%, as an essential factor in electricity shortages<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the\u00a0former\u00a0<\/span>Minister of Energy<\/span><\/a>, who had gone to the Parliamentary Energy Commission to\u00a0present\u00a0explanations, blamed the currency cryptocurrency extraction (bitcoin) for the lack of electricity. He complained that 3,600 unauthorized cryptocurrency extraction centers were identified that consume 570 megawatts of electricity<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While\u00a0cunningly\u00a0apologizing to the people\u00a0for the shortage, the mullahs\u2019\u00a0now outgoing\u00a0president\u00a0<\/span>Hassan Rouhani<\/span><\/a>\u00a0at the same time, mockingly stated that “China and America” \u200b\u200bhave electricity problems too.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Amid Rouhani\u2019s baseless allegations and lies, a commission of ministers of energy, interior, mining, trade, and oil, with the government’s legal authority to fight electricity shortages, said the shortages would continue for the time being. Hossain <\/span>Hosseinzadeh<\/span><\/a>, a member of the parliament’s energy commission, also noted that the crisis could not be resolved in the short term<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There is an imbalance between electricity generation\u00a0and\u00a0consumption in the country, which is not easily solved and, like all the problems of the country, is due to the four decades of the mullahs’ rule. To shed more light on this confusing mess,\u00a0one should try to separate facts from\u00a0regime\u00a0lies<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran’s peak\u00a0power consumption is estimated at 55 GW (55,000 MW)<\/span>.<\/span> \u00a0<\/span>According to the Ministry of Energy’s electricity generation statistics, the country’s\u00a0peak\u00a0electricity generation capacity is over 85 GW. Thus, there should be no problem of electricity shortage in the\u00a0country<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The first lie<\/span><\/i>\u00a0of the clerical\u00a0regime\u00a0is the actual production capacity, which in practice is a maximum of about 60 gigawatts: \u200c Many thermal power plants,\u00a0which supply about 80% of the country’s electricity\u00a0and their production capacity form\u00a0the basis of government calculation,\u00a0do not have the relevant theoretical efficiency, but often\u00a0run at\u00a0partial production capacity\u00a0due to erosion and technical defects or shutdowns. This year, hydropower plants will not reach half of their nominal production due to reduced rainfall and lack of investment. As a result, the actual\u00a0peak\u00a0electricity\u00a0generation capacity, estimated at 60 gigawatts at best, will not exceed 50 gigawatts, considering the drop in\u00a0hydropower\u00a0production<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The\u00a0mullahs\u2019\u00a0second<\/span><\/i>\u00a0<\/span>lie<\/span><\/i>\u00a0is\u00a0about the\u00a0consumption\u00a0increase\u00a0due to the\u00a0seasonal\u00a0heat. According to the\u00a0outgoing\u00a0Minister of Energy, the rise in temperature in May was 3 degrees compared to the previous year’s average. The\u00a0<\/span>CEO of Ahwaz Power Distribution<\/span><\/a>\u00a0says that\u00a0one\u00a0degree of temperature increase will\u00a0lead to an additional 300 MW of extra load at the peak point. In this way, increasing the load due to three degrees of temperature increase creates less than one gigawatt of overload.\u00a0And then\u00a0this year, despite the\u00a0heat, \u200c 55-gigawatt power consumption has been reported, which is 3 gigawatts less than at the same time last year<\/span>.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The mullahs’ third lie<\/span><\/i>\u00a0is the high average household consumption. According to global statistics, Iran has an average\u00a0<\/span>per capita global consumption<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(about\u00a03 kWh), which is lower than similar consumption in similar countries. In fact, in the growth of annual electricity consumption, the share of household consumption is the lowest compared to other sectors, i.e., the public sector, industry, etc. Thus, attributing the problem of electricity shortage to people’s household consumption is\u00a0but\u00a0a\u00a0\u00a0demagoguery.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The next lie<\/span><\/i>\u00a0is the\u00a0outsized\u00a0role of lack of rainfall. The amount of\u00a0hydroelectric power generation\u00a0is between 10 and 12 gigawatts, and the largest figure given by the regime, which is also likely to be exaggerated, is 14.5 gigawatts. So even if we take at face value the 40% drop\u00a0in electricity production due to lack of rain\u00a0affirmed by the government,\u00a0the amount of power deducted is less than 6 gigawatts, which is one-tenth of the total output of the country.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Thus, neither rising temperatures, lack of rainfall,\u00a0<\/span>nor\u00a0<\/span>excessive household consumption alone is the cause of the current catastrophic situation.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So, what is the reason for the current situation of the country’s electricity, which does not have the prospect of a\u00a0quick solution?<\/span> \u00a0<\/span>This situation is not the result of one or more natural and unnatural events, as the officials claim,\u00a0but the impact of the regime’s treacherous policies in complete disregard for the country’s infrastructure. For example:<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n