![\"JCPOA](\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2018\/07\/JCPOA-Without-the-United-States-Possible-or-Not.jpg\" "\\"JCPOA-Without-the-United-States-Possible-or-Not\\"")
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By Amir Taghati<\/p>\n
Following US withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, aka JCPOA, Hassan Rouhani\u2019s government turned to Europe to find a way for saving the deal by coming up with a European JCPOA.<\/p>\n
To that end, the regime sent its FM \u2018Javad Zarif\u2019 to Brussels to hold talks with his German, French and British counterparts, only to turn back with tail between legs after receiving Europeans\u2019 response and especially after EU Foreign Affairs Representative \u2018Federica Mogherini\u2019 asserted that Europe will give no assurances to the regime in this regard.<\/p>\n
As time goes by, it becomes more and more clear that with the United States out of the deal, it would be too unlikely for the JCPOA to remain in place.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, regime\u2019s current and future concern is the widespread economic sanctions the United States is going to impose on the regime, sanctions that would also target European companies that continue to have trade relations with Iran.<\/p>\n
Inefficiency of a European JCPOA<\/p>\n
Many big European companies have left Iran over the past couple of months, with many more being on the verge of putting an end to their economic activities in the country.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, German and French officials have repeatedly announced that they cannot prevent European companies from leaving Iran, as French President Emmanuel Macron once said \u201cI\u2019m not the president of Total!\u201d<\/p>\n
Also German Chancellor Angela Merkel has recently said \u201cit\u2019s up to the companies to decide whether they want to continue their trade relations with Iran and risk being faced with US punitive measures.\u201d (State-run Tasnim news agency, July 9, 2018)<\/p>\n
It\u2019s clear that this is basically not the European governments that are supposed to have trade relations with the Iranian regime or to invest in Iran, but it is Europe\u2019s private sector and companies that should be willing to do so.
Considering the departure of European companies from Iran and the European shipping companies cutting ties with the regime for fear of future US sanctions, there\u2019s no such willingness.<\/p>\n
So, a European JCPOA won\u2019t be able to protect the regime against future US sanctions the way the regime expects it to.<\/p>\n
Pointing to elongated talks with Europe and the fact that they\u2019re supposed to end with the beginning of US sanctions, Rouhani-linked political analyst \u2018Hassan Beheshtipoor\u2019 expresses his skepticism while referring to EU\u2019s recent statement as disappointing. \u201cIt\u2019s not clear when and by which authorities the promises included in EU\u2019s recent statement are going to be fulfilled. Besides, the details of Europe\u2019s suggested package are unclear,\u201d asserts Beheshtipoor. (Rahe-Dana website, July 10, 2018)<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, head of regime Parliament\u2019s Security Committee \u2018Heshmatollah Falahatpishe\u2019 says \u201cthe EU\u2019s recent statement is, as Mr. Rouhani also pointed out, too disappointing. By issuing such a generalized statement, the Europeans are actually seeking to buy time so they can take advantage of the current situation.\u201d (State-run IRNA news agency, July 10, 2018)<\/p>\n
Also in this regard, Iranian diplomacy (irdiplomacy) website on July 10, 2018, expresses skepticism about the future of the JCPOA. Asking \u2018JCPOA without the United States: possible or not?\u2019 the website writes \u201cIran is seeking European\u2019s assistance to solve the problem and keep the JCPOA alive. But it\u2019s not clear how capable the Europeans really are to keep the deal alive and help Iran benefit from the deal\u2019s economic advantages. If the P4+1 countries fail to stand against the United States or find a diplomatic way out of the current situation or convince the United States into taking part in multilateral talks, then there\u2019ll definitely be difficult conditions ahead for Iran.\u201d<\/p>\n
While the sword of secondary sanctions is waving above European companies\u2019 heads and European officials have repeatedly pointed out that the European governments are unable to convince their big banks and companies to stay in Iran, Iranian regime officials and media doubt the future of the JCPOA without the United States involved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
By Amir Taghati Following US withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, aka JCPOA, Hassan Rouhani’s government turned to Europe to find a way for saving the deal by coming […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":51737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[178],"class_list":["post-25040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-nuclear","tag-save"],"yoast_head":"\n