<\/em>The Islamic Republic of Iran has maintained a defiant tone in the face of the \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign pursued by Donald Trump\u2019s White House. The campaign reached new heights last week when it was announced that the US would no longer be granting waivers to eight leading purchasers of Iranian oil after the current ones expire on May 2. The announcement came just two weeks after it was revealed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) would be sanctioned and designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the US government.<\/p>\nThe Iranian regime\u2019s anti-Western rhetoric also reached unprecedented levels in the immediate aftermath of these dual announcements. Theocratic and military authorities have sought to portray themselves as unaffected by the pressure, but experts on Iranian affairs understand that their defiance is mere bluster. The IRGC controls the vast majority of Iran\u2019s gross domestic product, and oil exports remain central to the nation\u2019s economy. By blacklisting the hardline paramilitary and cutting off most of the world\u2019s markets from Iranian exports, the US is sure to precipitate an even greater crisis than the one the Islamic Republic has already been facing.<\/p>\n
The seriousness of the pre-existing crisis was already well established at the beginning of last year, at which time residents of every major Iranian city and town were participating in nationwide protests that reflected the people\u2019s frustration with rampant economic mismanagement and nearly 40 years of violent repression by a non-representative government. Although the initial unrest was suppressed within weeks, largely by the action of the IRGC, it was the start of a much larger movement that continues to inspire public demonstrations to this day.<\/p>\n
In fact, the entire year 2018 was deemed a \u201cyear full of uprisings\u201d by Maryam Rajavi, the leader of Iran\u2019s democratic opposition. In a testament to the social strength and high-level organization of the opposition movement, the People\u2019s Mujahedeen Organization of Iran (MEK) was widely credited with facilitating the rapid spread of the nationwide protests, and with helping to popularize its most provocative slogans like \u201cDeath to the Dictator.\u201d Such slogans left little doubt about the ultimate goal of the movement \u2014 namely regime change at the hands of the Iranian people.<\/p>\n
The United States and its allies can help the Iranian people to realize that goal, and indeed they have already begun to do so. Coming as it did in the wake of the American withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the nationwide unrest served to demonstrate that the civilian population has had enough of the economic hardship the clerical regime failed to alleviate following the signing of the Iran nuclear deal. In other words, it undermined familiar criticisms of assertive Western policy, which tend to suggest that such pressure could drive the Iranian people to rally behind their hardline government while blaming the Western world for their misfortunes.<\/p>\n
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other Iranian officials have eagerly sought to encourage that very response, but to no avail. Their failure is made all the more remarkable by the fact that much of the regime\u2019s anti-Western propaganda doubles as a veiled threat against those members of the domestic population who would dare to openly voice their dissent, or to promote supposedly \u201cWestern\u201d values of democratic governance and secular morality.<\/p>\n
Roughly two weeks after the Trump administration announced the terrorist designation for the IRGC, Ayatollah Khamenei announced a sudden change of leadership for the organization. Cutting short the previous IRGC head\u2019s appointed term of office, the supreme leader installed Hossein Salami, the organization\u2019s former deputy head, as his replacement. The Iran-Iraq War veteran\u2019s appointment has been described as a shift to the very hardest of an already hardline leadership. The appointment followed close on the heels of Salami publicly declaring that the IRGC was \u201cproud\u201d of its new terrorist designation. Khamenei himself echoed that sentiment in remarks to other military leaders, declaring that any action that makes Western \u201cenemies\u201d angry is \u201cappropriate and correct\u201d for the Islamic Republic. Such statements are no doubt designed to portray the Iranian regime as impervious to foreign pressure, but no sensible person can take them seriously.<\/p>\n
There is hope among the Iranian opposition that the regime will continue to suffer under Western sanctions. This message was partially conveyed by the 2018 protests, and the subsequent expressions of support by groups like the MEK for the continued escalation of that pressure. Iranians overwhelmingly recognize that their hardships stem from Tehran\u2019s self-serving rule and not from Washington\u2019s appropriately principled foreign policy. As such, the most salient feature of Salami\u2019s appointment to the head of the IRGC is the implicit threat of even greater hardline repression.<\/p>\n
Fortunately, that threat is somewhat sanitized by the terrorist designation, which will quickly diminish the resources of the Revolutionary Guards. Their repressive power was already stretched to breaking point amidst the protests, and there is no telling how much more quickly that point will be reached when a new domestic activist movement springs up in Iran, against the backdrop of \u201cmaximum pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n
With that in mind, the Trump administration must remain committed to seeing that strategy through. At the same time, all policymakers and partners of the United States who are torn between this newfound assertiveness and the status quo of Iranian relations should pick a side. Tehran\u2019s defiant attitude suggests that assertiveness raises the potential for war. But in reality, it is only part of a desperate strategy to compel the international community to stand down.<\/p>\n
As long as the adversaries of the Iranian dictatorship are willing to call the regime\u2019s bluff, continued international pressure will lead not to open conflict, but to the internal change of Iran\u2019s government. A nation so transformed will no longer be a threat to world peace, nor to its own long-suffering people.<\/p>\n
Alejo Vidal-Quadras is the former vice-president of the European Parliament, serving from 1999 to 2014. A Spanish professor of atomic and nuclear physics, he is currently president of the Brussels-based International Committee in Search of Justice (ISJ).<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The following is an article by former European lawmaker Alejo Vidal-Quadras published by Fair Observer on April 29, 2019: Iran’s Defiance of International Pressure Should Not Be Taken Seriously Tehran’s […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":25,"featured_media":53068,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[178],"class_list":{"0":"post-26134","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-save"},"yoast_head":"\n
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