{"id":263609,"date":"2022-09-10T14:35:54","date_gmt":"2022-09-10T12:35:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=263609"},"modified":"2023-02-06T19:09:11","modified_gmt":"2023-02-06T18:09:11","slug":"are-western-powers-finally-reaching-the-limit-of-patience-with-irans-nuclear-strategy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/blog\/op-ed\/are-western-powers-finally-reaching-the-limit-of-patience-with-irans-nuclear-strategy\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Western Powers Finally Reaching the Limit of Patience With Iran\u2019s Nuclear Strategy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_263620\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-263620\" style=\"width: 1199px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility\" class=\"size-full wp-image-263620\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility.jpg\" alt=\"Arak Heavy Water Reactor \" width=\"1199\" height=\"469\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility.jpg 1199w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility-300x117.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility-1024x401.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility-768x300.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility-150x59.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility-696x272.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/Arak-Heavy-Water-Reactor-Facility-1068x418.jpg 1068w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1199px) 100vw, 1199px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-263620\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Arak Heavy Water Reactor Facility<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Last month, the Iranian regime offered its response to what the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/blog\/op-ed\/at-iran-nuclear-talks-european-negotiators-optimism-is-baseless-2\/\" rel=\"noopener\">European Union<\/a> had described as the \u201cfinal text\u201d of an agreement to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and it immediately became clear that the negotiating process was nowhere near the breakthrough anticipated by the EU, the US and the three European signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Tehran\u2019s public comments on the matter explicitly revealed a desire for further changes, despite EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell having previously stated that all opportunities for compromise had been exhausted by the previous 17 months of negotiations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Iran\u2019s Foreign Ministry even went so far as to predict that negotiations would open back up in Vienna and then stretch on through much of September, if not beyond. This is deeply ironic in light of the fact that the Vienna talks were previously paused for months at a time because of Tehran\u2019s own refusal to send its representatives to the Austrian capital.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Once they did, Tehran once again seized an opportunity to prolong the gap, reiterated each of its <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/diplomats-iran-making-new-demands-in-nuclear-talks-\/6640154.html\" rel=\"noopener\">outstanding demands,<\/a> and publicly declared that Iranian negotiators would only return to Vienna in order to conclude a final agreement that reflected those demands.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Of course, no such agreement was forthcoming. And although Western policymakers have been rightly criticized in the past for appeasing the Iranian regime, no such agreement is likely to ever be achieved. Members of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2022\/05\/05\/congress-warning-biden-iran-deal-00030448\" rel=\"noopener\">both political parties<\/a> in the US have made it abundantly clear throughout the process that they will block any White House efforts to implement a deal that removes the IRGC\u2019s terrorist designation. The executives in Britain, France, and Germany have faced similar pressure to at least some degree, so full-scale capitulation to Iran\u2019s ultimatum was never a viable option, even if negotiators were willing to go that far.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Unfortunately, no one can say with certainty the Western leaders in charge of the negotiating process would not do so. The very fact that that process is still ongoing after 18 months is a testament to their excessive commitment and their excessive credulity when it comes to the Iranian regime\u2019s intentions. Tehran continues to be treated as a good faith actor, despite a constant accumulation of evidence to the contrary.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The latest such evidence comes in the form of a new report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which finds that Iran\u2019s stockpile of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/News\/middle-east\/2022\/08\/29\/Iran-starts-enriching-uranium-with-advanced-IR-6-machines-underground-at-Natanz\" rel=\"noopener\">60-percent enriched<\/a> uranium has increased at least 29 percent since May, giving the country more than enough to produce a quantity of weapons-grade uranium that is sufficient for one nuclear weapon. This only confirms what several Iranian officials, including the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, said last month: that the regime already has the technical capability it would need to become a nuclear-armed state.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"Fitting a Square Peg into a Round Hole with Iran Negotiations - April 2021\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_mzxOyfArflw\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FmzxOyfArflw%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/mzxOyfArflw\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT3M18S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2021-04-26T18:58:25Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_mzxOyfArflw\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FmzxOyfArflw%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">Fitting a Square Peg into a Round Hole with Iran Negotiations - April 2021<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/mzxOyfArflw\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FmzxOyfArflw%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"Fitting a Square Peg into a Round Hole with Iran Negotiations - April 2021\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"There will be nothing to write home about once the current round of talks with the Iranian regime concludes. What\u2019s past is prologue; no degree of political or economic incentives will induce behavior change in the regime ruling Iran. As such, investing in any negotiations with Tehran on any significant issue is a fool&#039;s errand. Regardless of one\u2019s views on the JCPOA in 2015, facts on the ground and the geopolitics of the region six years later make that deal untenable. Europe and the US are seeking a broader and stronger deal than the one in 2015, which would address the regime&#039;s terrorism and ballistic missile program. However, Tehran&#039;s mullahs have rejected both points of reference, casting considerable doubt on the seriousness of the talks. Besides, the very act of talking in good faith with the type of state that organizes its power around denial, duplicity, and deceit is a priori futile. Diplomacy and negotiations are vital instruments of statecraft. But by using negotiations to address the regime&#039;s assortment of threats, the Europeans are trying to fit a square peg into a round hole. When Chamberlain negotiated the Munich Agreement, he was blind to the fact that Hitler never intended to honor the deal in the first place, rendering negotiations futile. The distinction between behavior and essence is instructive here. The Europeans seek to persuade Tehran to change its behavior based on the assumption that the pursuit of nuclear weapons is a behavioral anomaly for the regime. Human rights abuses, terrorism, and nuclear weapons are not jouissance or mere predilections that transgress its essence. They are constitutive of the regime&#039;s DNA. The regime&#039;s core vulnerability, which animates its strategic orientations, stems from its historical, political, religious, and social illegitimacy at home. Deprived of a popular base domestically, the regime is sailing too close to the wind. Therefore, it needs a power source other than the will of constituents. Tehran does not abuse human rights, occasionally throw in terrorism, and pursue nuclear weapons for good measure. For it, these are as vital as oxygen. Therefore, even if the regime wanted to, it simply cannot trade in its heart and vital organs during negotiations. So, instead, it uses the opportunity afforded to it to essentially press its own agenda of securing sanctions relief without committing or intending to honor any matter of real import for its interlocutors. The mullahs will retreat only when faced with a truly vexing strategic choice that impacts the regime&#039;s survival, but not when they are given a platform to deceive and outwit. Read More: https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/IranNCR\/ https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy Subscribe to NCRI weekly newsletter t.ly\/MybJ #iran #JCPOA #nuclear\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Of course, Tehran has always denied that that is its intention, but Western intelligence agencies know the country\u2019s nuclear weapons program was active at least through 2003. Nevertheless, in the context of JCPOA negotiations, Western leaders seem to take the regime at its word, even as groups like the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/english.mojahedin.org\/about-iranian-opposition-pmoi-mek\" rel=\"noopener\">People\u2019s Mojahedin Organization<\/a> of Iran periodically present evidence to suggest that the regime never abandoned its push for nuclear weapons, but merely moved the program underground.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">The PMOI\u2019s conclusion is strongly supported by the fact that Tehran still refuses to cooperate with a probe into the past military dimensions of its nuclear program \u2013 a probe that found nuclear traces at three undeclared sites after the JCPOA was implemented, which Tehran has ever been able to credibly explain. Now, while pushing for changes to the \u201cfinal text\u201d, Raisi is actively insisting that there is \u201cno way forward\u201d for the nuclear agreement unless that probe is closed in advance, arbitrarily.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Although it should not have taken so long, there are tentative signs that this latest ultimatum is finally beginning to test the limits of Western patience with Tehran\u2019s obstructionism. Last week, the US State Department said that Iranian authorities\u2019 latest communications regarding the \u201cfinal text\u201d were <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2022\/09\/02\/us-says-latest-iran-nuclear-response-is-not-constructive\/\" rel=\"noopener\">\u201cnot constructive\u201d,<\/a> and this week even Josep Borrell lamented that the two sides of the negotiating process are \u201cdiverging\u201d instead of converging, thus leaving him \u201cless confident\u201d than before the final text was introduced.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">Now that the Western overseers are beginning to recognize the \u201cwhat\u201d of Tehran\u2019s behavior, it is imperative that they move on to recognizing the \u201cwhy\u201d. Far from anticipating that September negotiations would lead to a long sought-after breakthrough, it is clear that the regime is only anticipating those talks to stretch out the process even further, thereby allowing it to continue accelerating its nuclear activity without additional penalties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify\">This behavior cannot be allowed to continue. If it does, it will only result in the Iranian regime taking a long series of tiny steps forward until one day it takes the international community by surprise to reveal it has quietly become a nuclear-armed state. It is long past time for the US, Britain, France, and Germany to answer Iran\u2019s ultimatums with their own. They must state the collapse of the JCPOA and impose all prior sanctions snapping back into place.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_218196\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-218196\" style=\"width: 150px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras\" class=\"wp-image-218196 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras-60x60.jpg 60w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/Dr.-Alejo-Vidal-Quadras.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-218196\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dr. Alejo Vidal-Quadras<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><em>Alejo Vidal-Quadras, a Spanish professor of atomic and nuclear physics, was vice-president of the European Parliament from 1999 to 2014. He is currently president of the Brussels-based\u00a0<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/isjcommittee.com\/\" rel=\"noopener\">International Committee in Search of Justice<\/a>\u00a0(ISJ)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last month, the Iranian regime offered its response to what the European Union had described as the &ldquo;final text&rdquo; of an agreement to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":263620,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,188],"tags":[1175],"class_list":{"0":"post-263609","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nuclear","8":"category-op-ed","9":"tag-iran-nuclear"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Are Western Powers Finally Reaching the Limit of Patience With Iran\u2019s Nuclear Strategy? 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