{"id":306414,"date":"2023-04-25T14:29:00","date_gmt":"2023-04-25T13:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=306414"},"modified":"2023-04-25T14:37:41","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T13:37:41","slug":"the-future-of-irans-revolution-hope-or-despair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/the-future-of-irans-revolution-hope-or-despair\/","title":{"rendered":"The Future of Iran&#8217;s Revolution: Hope or Despair?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/Iran-Protests-February-17-2023-696x395-1.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"568\" \/><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Iranian authorities\u2019 heavy quash hasn\u2019t stopped the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iran-protests-2022-nationwide-uprising\/\" rel=\"noopener\">nationwide wave of dissent<\/a> that began in September. As the uprising persists, one might ask about its prospects. Will it lead to the regime\u2019s downfall, or will the mullahs eventually regain control? What measures will lead to the regime\u2019s downfall? What are the possible outcomes? And how can the international community help the Iranian people?<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Protests erupted in Iran following the tragic murder of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in police custody. Within hours, protesters started chanting slogans against the entire regime while clashing with security forces.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">While the uprising laid bare the regime\u2019s fragility and looming demise, some still argue the state will crush the protests, as it did during the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-iran-protests-specialreport-idUSKBN1YR0QR\" rel=\"noopener\">November 2019 uprising<\/a> by killing 1,500 protesters in a few days, or use methods such as the recent chemical attacks against schools to prevent people from rising. \u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Others claim that the clerical regime can stay in power by making some reforms, and the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, can maintain the system by giving more space to the so-called \u201creformist\u201d faction, as he did before. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Another popular hypothesis speaks of a possible \u201ctransition of power,\u201d a \u201ccontrolled collapse,\u201d or a coup by the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC). Some even argue that the regime can suddenly stop its organized oppression and collapse as Shah\u2019s regime did. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"MEK Resistance Units continue activities across Iran despite security measures\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_00BBS-Kpw5E\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F00BBS-Kpw5E%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/00BBS-Kpw5E\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT6M11S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2023-04-11T12:21:09Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_00BBS-Kpw5E\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F00BBS-Kpw5E%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">MEK Resistance Units continue activities across Iran despite security measures<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/00BBS-Kpw5E\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F00BBS-Kpw5E%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"MEK Resistance Units continue activities across Iran despite security measures\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"*** Content on the PMOI\/MEK&#039;s official YouTube channel is not subject to copyright if the source is mentioned ***\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">But how real are these suggestions and possibilities?\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The regime has so far killed 750 protesters and arrested tens of thousands, but protests persist. This persistence in a country where the entire security apparatus is designed to crack down on demonstrations suggests that the uprising is organized in nature. This continuation is proof of the regime\u2019s inability to control society. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Moreover, the mass killing of protesters, as security forces did in November 2019, can rapidly backfire. Desperate actions such as chemical attacks on girls\u2019 schools might work momentarily but can have severe consequences, as they have led to popular protests with people chanting \u201cDeath to Khamenei.\u201d <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Furthermore, Iran\u2019s society has indicated that it is done with the regime\u2019s pretense of moderation. The myth of reformism ended in the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2018\/08\/04\/world\/middleeast\/iran-protests.html\" rel=\"noopener\">2018 uprising<\/a> when people chanted, \u201cReformists, hardliners, the game is over.\u201d Besides, Khamenei cannot accept the slightest rift in his regime, which would rapidly lead to its downfall. Therefore, he purged the rival factions\u2019 candidate during the parliamentary elections in 2020 and appointed Ebrahim Raisi, an unscrupulous mass murderer, as president in 2021 to make clear he won\u2019t take anything short of absolute loyalty to his policies.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In a Tuesday meeting with some of the close-knit follower base, Khamenei rejected the rival faction\u2019s calls for a \u201creferendum.\u201d <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cHow can we put the country\u2019s different issues on a referendum? Do all participants qualify to analyze those issues? What is this nonsense? How could there be a referendum? They speak about holding a referendum for six months to polarize society. No, this is not going to happen,\u201d<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iran-politics-khamenei-protests-cb861be29bf5bdf1c2aa341edb27cfa1\" rel=\"noopener\">\u202f<\/a><\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">he sai<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">d.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Expectations that the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/irans-armed-forces-and-irgc-beacons-of-hope-or-global-threats\/\" rel=\"noopener\">regime\u2019s Revolutionary Guards<\/a> might be an instrument of change are even less realistic.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The IRGC, directly overseen by Khamenei, dominates Iran&#8217;s economy and is the primary instrument of oppression, controlling every aspect of life in the country. Its grip on critical industries like oil, banking, and construction allows the regime to enrich itself at the expense of the people. Those who claim that IRGC members can turn their back on power and wealth to defect and abandon their structure, uniform, and arms are wrong. The survival of the theocracy is linked to the IRGC, and its dissolution would lead to the downfall of the regime.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Therefore, the possibility of a coup or \u201ctransition of power,\u201d cherished and promoted by some so-called opposition figures, is absurd.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The clerical regime will continue oppression until the oppressed overcome the oppressors. It grasps at any straw to prolong its life, and suppression of dissent is its main tool.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>So what is the solution?\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The solution lies on the Iranian streets, where people fearlessly demand regime change and target its symbols. The organized resistance movement and its endeavors to keep the flame of uprising alit while rejecting any form of dictatorship is indeed the solution. The campaigns by the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/english.mojahedin.org\/iranian-resistance-units\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Resistance Units<\/a> network affiliated with the principal opposition, Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK), despite heavy surveillance by the regime\u2019s covert and overt agents, are cracking the wall of oppression and spreading courage in society, paving the way for further protests. <\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Victor Hugo once said: \u201cWhen dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right.\u201d This is what Western countries should realize about the revolution in the making in Iran.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The global community can lend support to the resilient people of Iran and their organized Resistance movement by designating the IRGC as a terrorist organization and acknowledging the Iranian people&#8217;s inherent right to self-defense and to overthrow the regime.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335551550&quot;:6,&quot;335551620&quot;:6,&quot;335559739&quot;:160,&quot;335559740&quot;:259}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; Iranian authorities&rsquo; heavy quash hasn&rsquo;t stopped the nationwide wave of dissent that began in September. As the uprising persists, one might ask about its prospects. Will it lead to [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":302124,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,9],"tags":[130],"class_list":{"0":"post-306414","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-resistance","8":"category-iran-protests","9":"tag-iran-protests"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Future of Iran&#039;s Revolution: Hope or Despair? - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"&nbsp; Iranian authorities\u2019 heavy quash hasn\u2019t stopped the nationwide wave of dissent that began in September. 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