{"id":319757,"date":"2024-05-23T13:41:03","date_gmt":"2024-05-23T12:41:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=319757"},"modified":"2025-11-04T19:46:50","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:46:50","slug":"khameneis-blueprint-for-iranian-regimes-next-government","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-election\/khameneis-blueprint-for-iranian-regimes-next-government\/","title":{"rendered":"Khamenei\u2019s Blueprint for Iranian Regime\u2019s Next Government"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-319761\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-khamenei-regime-officials.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-khamenei-regime-officials.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-khamenei-regime-officials-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-khamenei-regime-officials-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-khamenei-regime-officials-741x420.jpg 741w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-khamenei-regime-officials-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/iran-khamenei-regime-officials-696x395.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Four-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In the political upheaval following the helicopter crash that claimed the lives of senior Iranian officials, all indicators reveal that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei\u2019s top priority is to demonstrate stability and ease growing concerns among internal forces and foreign allies. A day before Tehran announced the deaths of its president Ebrahim Raisi and several high-ranking officials, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tasnimnews.com\/fa\/news\/1403\/02\/30\/3088854\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Khamenei<\/a>, even before Raisi\u2019s body was found, assured the nation, saying, \u201cThe Iranian people should not worry; there will be no disruption in the country&#8217;s affairs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Despite the derailment of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/ebrahim-raisi\/raisis-death-cripples-khameneis-decade-long-project-to-maintain-rule-over-iran\/\">his decade-long project<\/a>, Khamenei refrained from mourning at the caskets of the high-ranking officials. His <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/1pnKcgE_xfY?t=19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">weeping for Qassem Soleimani<\/a> on state TV in 2020 resulted in his ridicule and a projection of weakness. This time, he tried to keep his composure and ordered swift preparation for the next presidential election.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Appointing Iran\u2019s Next President<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to Article 131 of the regime\u2019s constitution, &#8220;In the event of the death, dismissal, resignation, absence, or illness lasting more than two months of the President, or if the President&#8217;s term ends and a new President has not been elected, the First Vice President, with the Leader&#8217;s approval, shall assume the President&#8217;s duties and responsibilities.&#8221;\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On Monday, May 20, Khamenei announced in a message that Raisi\u2019s VP Mohammad Mokhber would take over the executive branch under Article 131 and ordered that the presidential election be held within 50 days.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While governments and think tanks around the world are already speculating and drawing up charts about Iran\u2019s next president, Khamenei has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/khameneis-admission-of-failure-irans-power-consolidation-plan-in-shambles\/\">laid out his roadmap<\/a>. Over the years, the Supreme Leader has gradually discredited all &#8220;undesirable elements&#8221; through state-affiliated media or influencers exposing corruption documents, initiating legal cases against them or their relatives, and ultimately disqualifying them through the Guardian Council or the Ministry of Interior.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">On May 21, 2024, the state <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/737114\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">media reported that<\/a> Hadi Tahan Nazif, the Guardian Council spokesman, stated that the new president would serve a full four-year term, not merely the remainder of Raisi\u2019s term.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Raisi?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Raisi<\/a>\u2019s Death Cripples Khamenei\u2019s Decade-Long Project to Maintain Rule over <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ibcs5oMwbB\">https:\/\/t.co\/ibcs5oMwbB<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1793254230997766179?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 22, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Potential Candidates for Iran\u2019s Next President<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Media close to Khamenei named potential candidates like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iran-1988-massacre-of-political-prisoners\/who-is-mohammad-mokhber-iranian-regimes-acting-president-and-khameneis-man-who-stood-in-raisis-shadows\/\">Mohammad Mokhber<\/a>, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, and Saeed Jalili, a member of the Supreme National Security Council. Despite <a href=\"https:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2023\/02\/28\/iran-protests-corruption-khamenei-wealth-ghalibaf-soleimani\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">numerous corruption cases<\/a> against Ghalibaf and Zakani in media close to marginalized regime factions, these figures have never faced legal or political obstacles to holding high positions within the regime.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The experience of consolidating power seen in the 2019 parliamentary and 2021 presidential elections is the strongest indication that the next president will come from Khamenei\u2019s inner circle. In past elections, so-called \u201creformist candidates\u201d have always been disqualified by the Guardian Council or eliminated at the ballot box.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The so-called \u201cmoderates,\u201d including notable figures like former President Hasan Rouhani, former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, former Tehran City Council Chairman Mohsen Hashemi Rafsanjani, and former Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, also stand little chance. Rouhani was disqualified from entering the Assembly of Experts in the March 1 sham election and his open letter protesting the Guardian Council likely reduced his chances further. Zarif, after the leak of a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/zarif-leaked-audio-confirm-iran-regimes-terrorism-and-diplomacy-go-hand-in-hand\/\">confidential audio tape<\/a> by Khamenei\u2019s allies before the 2021 election, was too shrewd to risk political disgrace by running for election.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Those who fielded prominent candidates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/ebrahim-raisi\/the-extremist-regime-in-iran-doesnt-eat-its-children-it-devours-itself\/\">like Ali Larijani<\/a> in the last election, also saw their candidates disqualified. Although Larijani has served the regime in various key positions, he was sidelined due to Khamenei\u2019s push for Raisi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">State-run websites note that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/gilanbehtarnovin.ir\/%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%B4%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B3-%D9%86%D8%AE%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B4%DB%8C%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3%DB%8C\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad<\/a>, given his past and his uncontrollable personality, is unlikely to be approved.\u201d The judiciary has imprisoned many of Ahmadinejad\u2019s advisors and close associates, yet his continual threats to \u201creveal the system\u2019s secrets\u201d have become a meme in Iran, seemingly granting him a degree of immunity.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> regime&#39;s power consolidation plan crumbles under the weight of its own shortcomings.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ErwiobZpJO\">https:\/\/t.co\/ErwiobZpJO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1662369074284732416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 27, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Ali Shamkhani, who has held key positions such as Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, Commander of the IRGC Ground Forces, Minister of Defense, and Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is another potential candidate. However, in recent years, he has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/anews\/iran-news-internal-strife-heightens-as-iranian-regime-arrests-nephew-of-former-official-on-corruption-charges\/\">sidelined and disgraced<\/a> by multiple corruption scandals in state media.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mohammad Mokhber Dezfouli, who has served as Raisi\u2019s VP since 2021, will act as interim president for 50 days until the presidential election is held.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Mohsen Rezaei Mirqaed, former IRGC commander and economic vice president in Raisi\u2019s administration, has had ongoing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/iran-mohsen-rezaeis-dismissal-first-cracks-in-khameneis-strategy-to-consolidate-power\/\">conflicts with Mokhber<\/a> and has consistently failed in previous presidential elections.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Saeed Jalili, who has proven his loyalty to Khamenei&#8217;s foreign policy line, is considered a likely candidate. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabarfoori.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-59\/3073967-%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%DA%86%D9%87-%DA%A9%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B4%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B4%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%82%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%81-%DB%8C%D8%A7-%DB%8C%DA%A9-%DA%86%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%AC%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D9%85%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D9%86%DA%98%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%81%DB%8C%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%86%DA%AF%D9%87%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%85%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Regime media speculate<\/a> that a figure like Saeed Jalili might compete with Ghalibaf and that someone with close ties to Raisi&#8217;s administration has the best chance to take over the presidential helm.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">During the race for the new speakership, close allies of Khamenei, such as Hamid Rasaee and Ali Akbar Raefi Pour, have harshly criticized the incumbent parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. However, Ghalibaf has proven himself not to be on the blacklist due to his alignment with Khamenei\u2019s policies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Whether Khamenei will surprise everyone with an unknown figure as he did in 2005, or choose one of the usual suspects, remains uncertain. However, what seems certain is his unwavering strategy for maintaining power.<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The extremist regime in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> doesn\u2019t eat its children\u2014it devours itself<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XZu1kg73A1\">https:\/\/t.co\/XZu1kg73A1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1691800727713444154?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 16, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Khamenei\u2019s Next Strategy<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The ten-year project with Raisi has shown that Khamenei sees only one way forward amidst endless internal and external crises: consolidating power. The regime faces significant internal challenges following the uprisings of 2017, 2019, and 2022, along with ongoing labor strikes by teachers, retirees, and workers, coupled with soaring inflation and currency devaluation. Internationally, the regime grapples with delicate issues like the nuclear crisis, and tensions in the Middle East, requiring a strategy to manage and control tensions with the U.S., especially with the upcoming elections in Washington.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Moreover, Tehran views its support for Russia in the Ukraine war, aid to Middle Eastern militias, and backing international terrorism as survival mechanisms. Losing any of these would mean a defensive war and confronting its inherent weaknesses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Additionally, the regime faces an organized resistance movement and the <a href=\"https:\/\/english.mojahedin.org\/iranian-resistance-units\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">MEK Resistance Units<\/a>, which challenge the regime&#8217;s apparatus of repression daily and keep the hope of uprising and overthrow alive in society. This Resistance also works internationally to isolate the regime and targets the IRGC as Tehran&#8217;s primary arm of repression and terrorism.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the main parameter Khamenei considers is the state of his own forces. With each step toward consolidating power, his regime has become smaller and his domestic base weaker. Every killed commander and every additional sanction demoralizes his forces. Thus, any concession or retreat is lethal for Khamenei\u2019s forces, making the path he embarked on with Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian the only viable option for survival. This, inevitably, has set the regime on a collision course with both the Iranian people and the international community, with a downfall seemingly inevitable at the end of this trajectory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read In the political upheaval following the helicopter crash that claimed the lives of senior Iranian officials, all indicators reveal that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei&rsquo;s top priority is to [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":69,"featured_media":319761,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[496,499],"tags":[509,5480],"class_list":{"0":"post-319757","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-election","8":"category-elections-candidates-biography","9":"tag-iran-election","10":"tag-ali-khamenei"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO 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