{"id":323456,"date":"2024-08-23T17:08:25","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T16:08:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=323456"},"modified":"2024-08-23T17:08:25","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T16:08:25","slug":"grim-forecast-of-irans-economic-prospects-under-pezeshkian","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/grim-forecast-of-irans-economic-prospects-under-pezeshkian\/","title":{"rendered":"Grim Forecast of Iran\u2019s Economic Prospects Under Pezeshkian"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-244815\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK-e1724428923799.jpg\" alt=\"Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK\" width=\"1000\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK-e1724428923799.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK-e1724428923799-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK-e1724428923799-768x431.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK-e1724428923799-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK-e1724428923799-696x390.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/Iran-economy-NCRI-MEK-e1724428923799-749x420.jpg 749w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Two-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Iran\u2019s economy, already in deep crisis after years of mismanagement, corruption, and external pressures, faces an even bleaker future under the new administration of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/who-is-masoud-pezeshkian\/\">Massoud Pezeshkian<\/a>. Despite the regime&#8217;s rhetoric, the country\u2019s economic reality is one of stagnation and decline. With Pezeshkian at the helm, lacking both a clear economic plan and a competent team, the outlook remains dire.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Massoud Pezeshkian inherits an economy on the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/03\/06\/world\/middleeast\/iran-economy-currency-rial.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">brink of collapse<\/a>. Under his predecessor, Ebrahim Raisi, Iran&#8217;s economic <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-state-media-fact-checking-in-raisis-two-years-term-lies-outpaced-actions\/\">performance plummeted<\/a>, leaving a legacy of high inflation, rampant poverty, and a depreciating currency. Now, Pezeshkian faces the enormous challenge of reversing this trend without any concrete strategy or experienced leadership in his cabinet.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pezeshkian\u2019s proposed Minister of Economy, Abdol-Nasser Hemmati, is emblematic of this lack of direction. Hemmati, during his previous tenure as head of the Central Bank, oversaw a period of economic deterioration marked by soaring inflation and a dramatic devaluation of the rial. The disastrous implementation of the <a href=\"https:\/\/iranfocus.com\/economy\/34199-iran-multi-tiered-exchange-corruption-results\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dual exchange rate system<\/a> under Hemmati\u2019s watch not only depleted national reserves but also fueled corruption and widened economic disparities.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Economic Woes Expose Raisi\u2019s Failed Promises<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cSA5Ji3AUS\">https:\/\/t.co\/cSA5Ji3AUS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1779821971989012773?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 15, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Other key appointments in Pezeshkian\u2019s cabinet, such as the ministers responsible for industry, trade, and finance, also lack clear economic strategies. Reports suggest that these ministers are still uncertain about the policies they must present to parliament, a troubling sign of the regime\u2019s inability to address the country\u2019s economic challenges effectively.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Iran&#8217;s industrial sector, once a cornerstone of the economy, is now mired in recession. According to official statistics, the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.otaghiranonline.ir\/topic\/10343\/0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Purchasing Managers&#8217; Index<\/a> (PMI) for the sector has shown contraction for two consecutive months, signaling deepening industrial stagnation. Issues such as frequent power outages, shortages of capital, and an exodus of skilled workers have exacerbated the situation. The latest (official) figures indicate that industrial activity has fallen to a PMI of 47.2, well below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The labor market is similarly distressed, with the employment index falling to 48.5, marking the steepest decline in three years. This drop in employment reflects both the lack of opportunities and the growing disillusionment among workers, many of whom are leaving the sector due to uncompetitive wages and rising living costs.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Delving into <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Corruption Chronicles \u2013 Part 3<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Vb50Xx9eVg\">https:\/\/t.co\/Vb50Xx9eVg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1738303731165245896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 22, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Pezeshkian has pinned some of his hopes on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/is-iran-regimes-seventh-development-plan-a-mirage\/\">the Seventh Development Plan<\/a>, which calls for ambitious economic goals, including placing Iran among the top 10 global economies and achieving a GDP of $2 trillion. However, with only 20 months left to implement this plan, none of these targets have been met. The country\u2019s GDP remains at approximately $450 billion, inflation is stuck at 40%, and a third of the population continues to live in absolute poverty. The plan\u2019s objectives are increasingly seen as unattainable under the current administration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Tehran Stock Exchange has become a mirror of the regime&#8217;s failure. Recent weeks have seen over <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tehrantimes.com\/news\/461920\/TEDPIX-falls-3-600-points-on-Sunday\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">3,600 billion tomans<\/a> withdrawn from the market by increasingly skeptical investors. The stock market index has dropped to its lowest levels in two years, reflecting the deepening crisis and the regime\u2019s inability to restore investor confidence.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As Iran\u2019s economic situation deteriorates, the social fabric of the country continues to fray. Persistent protests across various sectors\u2014workers, teachers, and even retired government employees\u2014underscore the growing discontent. The inability of Pezeshkian\u2019s administration to address these economic grievances suggests that the situation is unlikely to improve. Instead, the country is on a path toward greater social unrest, fueled by an economy that shows no signs of recovery. Only a fundamental political and economic overhaul can alter this trajectory, but under the current regime, such change remains a distant hope.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two-minute read Iran&rsquo;s economy, already in deep crisis after years of mismanagement, corruption, and external pressures, faces an even bleaker future under the new administration of Massoud Pezeshkian. Despite the [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":244815,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":{"0":"post-323456","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-iran-economy"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Grim Forecast of Iran\u2019s Economic Prospects Under Pezeshkian - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Two-minute read Iran\u2019s economy, already in deep crisis after years of mismanagement, corruption, and external pressures, faces an even bleaker future\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/grim-forecast-of-irans-economic-prospects-under-pezeshkian\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Grim Forecast of Iran\u2019s Economic Prospects Under Pezeshkian - 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