{"id":325349,"date":"2024-10-28T10:06:35","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T09:06:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=325349"},"modified":"2025-11-04T19:45:12","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:45:12","slug":"khameneis-post-strike-address-exposes-fears-of-regional-setbacks-and-regime-insecurity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/khameneis-post-strike-address-exposes-fears-of-regional-setbacks-and-regime-insecurity\/","title":{"rendered":"Khamenei\u2019s Post-Strike Address Exposes Fears of Regional Setbacks and Regime Insecurity"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-325351\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/iran-ali-khamenei-speech-27102024.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"568\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/iran-ali-khamenei-speech-27102024.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/iran-ali-khamenei-speech-27102024-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/iran-ali-khamenei-speech-27102024-768x436.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/iran-ali-khamenei-speech-27102024-739x420.jpg 739w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/iran-ali-khamenei-speech-27102024-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/iran-ali-khamenei-speech-27102024-696x395.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Four-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On October 27, a day after Israel launched airstrikes on military targets inside Iran, the regime&#8217;s Supreme Leader Ali <a href=\"https:\/\/www.leader.ir\/fa\/content\/27741\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Khamenei took to the stage<\/a> in a highly orchestrated public address, meeting with families of security forces killed in recent confrontations. This unusual display signaled what many interpret as mounting anxiety over his regime\u2019s regional strategy and internal stability. Facing significant morale issues among his domestic and regional allies, Khamenei\u2019s message reflected not only his concern over the societal anger directed at his regime but also a desperate attempt to underscore security, hoping to discourage his allies from drifting away.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Warning against insecurity<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In a rare acknowledgment of domestic opposition, Khamenei implicitly addressed the \u201cintense societal resistance\u201d against his rule, saying, \u201cWhen we understood the importance of security for the country, we realized that security must be protected\u2014whether by the police, the Basij forces, or intelligence agencies\u2026wherever there is no security, there is chaos. [In such an environment] one person causes trouble at the border, another causes trouble in the streets, and yet another causes trouble by spreading rumors.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">By painting this broad picture of \u201cchaos,\u201d Khamenei aimed to justify continued repression, even as millions of Iranians, particularly on social media, have expressed their disdain for the government, and local attacks on security forces have become increasingly common.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Supreme Leader\u2019s Speech Was A Desperate Attempt to Mask Weakness, Justify Crimes, and Warn of Infiltration<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pZIhpwcg3f\">https:\/\/t.co\/pZIhpwcg3f<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1839321907491115426?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 26, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Khamenei also attempted to counter voices within his ranks calling for a pullback from regional engagements, emphasizing, \u201cSome analysts suggest that for the sake of security, we should avoid measures that provoke powerful nations. They say we don\u2019t need long-range missiles, thinking this will keep the country safe. Their idea is that if you want safety, you must appear weak.\u201d Khamenei added a historical warning, claiming, \u201cWhenever our leaders in the past turned away from power-building, enemies dominated us.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">On the back of this rhetoric, Khamenei\u2019s message seemed to greenlight a harsher approach to censoring and repressing dissent. He warned against \u201ccausing anxiety in the people,\u201d blaming social media for \u201cinducing fear, doubt, and unrest\u201d through what he described as misguided analyses and false interpretations of events. According to Khamenei, the spread of unchecked information online could lead to widespread anxiety and mistrust\u2014a scenario he seems intent on suppressing at any cost.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cThose connected to social media should pay attention to these matters. Not everything should be posted online,\u201d he warned, adding that people should \u201cconsider the impact on the minds, thoughts, and morale of society.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Responding by not responding<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In response to Israel\u2019s recent strike, Khamenei refrained from calling for vengeance or a direct counterstrike. He rather sought to project confidence in his regime\u2019s ability to rally popular support, masking his deeper fears of social unrest that could threaten his hold on power. Referring to the attack, he said, \u201cThis latest act of hostility was a misstep on their part. They, of course, exaggerate its significance, which is a mistake, but underestimating it is equally wrong. Saying it was nothing and didn\u2019t matter\u2014this, too, is a mistake. The Zionist regime\u2019s miscalculations need to be corrected. They don\u2019t know Iran, its youth, or the strength, ingenuity, and resolve of the Iranian people. This is what we need to make clear to them.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Khamenei?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Khamenei<\/a>\u2019s Friday Prayer Sermon Exposes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Regime\u2019s Fears of Regional Strategy Collapse<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/N4iMAAbqXp\">https:\/\/t.co\/N4iMAAbqXp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1842248319260901826?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 4, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Khamenei\u2019s remarks also seemed carefully crafted to satisfy different political factions within his regime. By balancing his warning not to exaggerate or underestimate the Israeli attack, he effectively responded to both prevailing views within his regime. To those calling for immediate retaliation, Khamenei\u2019s words signaled that their voices were being acknowledged, though he seemed keen to temper their rhetoric to avoid escalating media pressure. At the same time, he issued a subtle caution to factions urging restraint, signaling that any notion of retreat was off the table.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:false,&quot;134233118&quot;:false,&quot;335559738&quot;:240,&quot;335559739&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Yet, Khamenei deftly shifted responsibility for any future response to his officials, stating, \u201cThe specifics of what should be done must be determined by our leaders, who will decide what is in the best interest of the country and the people.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">By deflecting the burden of decision-making onto other officials, Khamenei avoided taking direct responsibility for a response. This tactic, often employed when he anticipates potential costs or repercussions, allows him to sidestep accountability while preserving his own image.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This approach reflects an apparent reluctance to escalate, as officials appear more inclined to manage the conflict through backdoor diplomacy or bold threats of producing a nuclear bomb. Recently, Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hinted at a measured response, saying Iran\u2019s answer would be \u201cdecisive, with due consideration.\u201d At the same time, the regime&#8217;s President Massoud Pezeshkian added, \u201cWe do not seek war but will defend our rights,\u201d signaling a desire to keep options open without commitment to immediate action.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Grapples with Internal Crisis as Regional Tensions Mount<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Js19PiRiJ0\">https:\/\/t.co\/Js19PiRiJ0<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1848038971793936437?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 20, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Desperate pledge<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In another part of his speech, aimed at a broader audience, Khamenei shifted tones, calling for a global coalition against Israel. Once committed to eliminating what he termed an \u201cillegitimate entity\u201d from the earth, he now appeals for an international alliance. Khamenei declared, \u201cA global coalition must be formed\u2014a political, economic, and, if necessary, military coalition\u2014against the malevolent Zionist regime, which today commits the most savage war crimes&#8230; Our demand of the world, especially the Islamic world, is to form a global alliance against the Zionist regime.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is clear from this rhetoric that Khamenei\u2019s weakened stance reflects the troubled state of the Basij forces, the IRGC, and proxy militias who, funded by Iranian resources, now appear strained and diminished.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Having maintained his regime for three decades through domestic repression and international militancy, Khamenei has repeatedly warned that any retreat could lead to a chain of concessions ultimately resulting in his regime\u2019s downfall. His speech underscored that, despite his evident concern over the diminishing effectiveness of these pillars of power, he remains unwilling to relinquish his survival mechanisms. Instead, he appears committed to finding new strategies to sustain his shrinking base and retain control.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Hence, as demonstrated over the past 45 years, the region will see neither peace nor stability as long as the clerical regime remains in power.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read&nbsp; On October 27, a day after Israel launched airstrikes on military targets inside Iran, the regime&rsquo;s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei took to the stage in a highly orchestrated [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":325351,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[287,5480],"class_list":{"0":"post-325349","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-terrorism-a-fundamentalism","8":"tag-iran-terrorism","9":"tag-ali-khamenei"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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