{"id":325772,"date":"2024-11-14T13:46:35","date_gmt":"2024-11-14T12:46:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=325772"},"modified":"2024-11-14T13:46:35","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T12:46:35","slug":"as-november-2019-uprising-anniversary-nears-irans-regime-lacks-regional-escape-route-amid-brewing-unrest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/as-november-2019-uprising-anniversary-nears-irans-regime-lacks-regional-escape-route-amid-brewing-unrest\/","title":{"rendered":"As November 2019 Uprising Anniversary Nears, Iran\u2019s Regime Lacks Regional Escape Route Amid Brewing Unrest"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_237414\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-237414\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-237414\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned.jpg\" alt=\"iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned\" width=\"1000\" height=\"545\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned-300x164.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned-768x419.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned-150x82.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-protests-2019-motorbike-burned-696x379.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-237414\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A motorcycle is burned down during 2019 uprisings in Iran<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As Iran approaches the fifth anniversary of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iran-protests-2019\/\">November 2019 protests<\/a>, the country finds itself gripped by a severe socio-economic crisis, intensified by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei\u2019s risky regional strategy. Following the 2022 nationwide uprising, Khamenei reportedly initiated a regional war, aiming to deflect rising domestic grievances. Yet, a year later, facing high casualties among his proxy forces and a declining economy, Khamenei\u2019s approach has left the regime vulnerable, its defenses strained both at home and abroad.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The current economic challenges have reignited concerns about protests similar to those in 2019 and 2022. Hossein Raghfar, an economist at Al-Zahra University, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jamaran.news\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-13\/1649296-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%BA%D9%81%D8%B1-%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%B4%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B6%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A2%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B6%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%B9%DB%8C%D8%B6-%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%87%DB%8C%DA%86-%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B4-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%AF-%D9%87%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%A7%DA%86%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%87-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%BE%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recently told Jamaran News<\/a>, \u201cWe face the risk of protests like November 2019 and Fall 2022. The events of November 2019 were a cumulative eruption of grievances and humiliations across Iran&#8217;s youth.\u201d These remarks underscore the escalating frustrations amid severe economic strain, including rising prices, cuts to essential services, and widespread dissatisfaction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a significant move on November 12, Masoud <a href=\"https:\/\/donya-e-eqtesad.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D8%AF%DB%8C%D9%BE%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-64\/4122627-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%BE%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B4%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pezeshkian\u2019s government announced<\/a> that licensed entities could import high-grade gasoline at unsubsidized prices, a decision that analysts believe may soon drive further hikes in fuel costs. While government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani claimed the imports were \u201cseparate from the subsidized fuel distribution infrastructure,\u201d she acknowledged severe mismatches in energy supply. \u201cThe administration is committed to public health, reducing fuel oil consumption despite power outages, and addressing this imbalance,\u201d Mohajerani said. Observers note that the government\u2019s piecemeal announcements reflect an attempt to avoid a repeat of the 2019 uprising, sparked by a sudden gasoline price increase that spurred mass protests across the country.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">4)<br \/>Iran: 2019 Uprising, FACT SHEET: Officials Involved in Suppression of 2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Protests<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/WeStand4FreeIran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#WeStand4FreeIran<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ewq33ajoUf\">https:\/\/t.co\/Ewq33ajoUf<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/p2XmZn6s6O\">pic.twitter.com\/p2XmZn6s6O<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1322931483703738368?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 1, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In another recent statement, the Iranian regime&#8217;s president <a href=\"https:\/\/iranlabor.news\/irans-new-president-criticized-for-simplistic-approach-to-gasoline-pricing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Massoud Pezeshkian commented<\/a> on the untenable nature of subsidizing fuel. \u201cIt is unreasonable for the government to import gasoline at the free-market dollar rate and sell it at subsidized prices,\u201d Pezeshkian stated, adding that the policy goes against expert recommendations. \u201cA government unable to fund medicine, wheat, and pensions cannot afford to buy gasoline at 50,000 rials and sell it for 10,000.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Iran\u2019s growing list of crises now encompasses systematic corruption, political repression, environmental degradation, rampant inflation, and the dominance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in nearly all sectors of the economy. Additional grievances include a brain drain, a plummeting currency, devastating air and water pollution, deforestation, and widespread food and medical shortages. For many Iranians, the list has grown long, with many referring to these grievances as \u201c80 million reasons\u201d for change.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On the international front, tensions continue to rise following Germany\u2019s recent decision to close all Iranian consulates in response to Iran\u2019s execution of Jamshid Sharmahd, a German-Iranian dual national. Foreign Minister Annalena <a href=\"https:\/\/www.auswaertiges-amt.de\/en\/newsroom\/news\/-\/2682710\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Baerbock announced<\/a> that while the Iranian embassy would remain open, diplomatic relations had deteriorated sharply, and she urged the EU to add the IRGC to its list of terrorist organizations. This move comes as Iran&#8217;s internal repression and human rights abuses draw greater scrutiny worldwide, with Germany\u2019s move seen as an indicator of mounting European disapproval.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">10)<br \/>The November 2019 uprising is clear evidence of this progress, especially considering that it sprang up on a national scale less than two years after a previous uprising that brought public support for regime change out into the open.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/A03I4c6mrW\">https:\/\/t.co\/A03I4c6mrW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1275859208106315776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 24, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Adding to the regime\u2019s woes, Iran\u2019s currency hit a record low following the recent U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump. The IRGC\u2019s Telegram channel quickly posted a video threatening Trump\u2019s life, reigniting fears of U.S. backlash. The threat reflects a deep-seated resentment stemming from Trump\u2019s authorization of the 2019 killing of IRGC <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/who-was-the-vicious-criminal-qassem-soleimani\/\">General Qassem Soleimani.<\/a> The clerical regime is reportedly terrified of the potential reinstatement of the new U.S. administration\u2019s \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d policy, which could significantly worsen Iran\u2019s economic turmoil and pave the way for more unrest.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Internally, Iranian officials have reportedly intensified efforts to prepare for Khamenei\u2019s eventual succession, fearing that his death could trigger nationwide efforts to overthrow the regime. Speculation has intensified around Khamenei\u2019s son, Mojtaba, as the likely successor, a move seen as a consolidation of power within the supreme leader\u2019s inner circle. Mojtaba Khamenei\u2019s increased visibility suggests that the regime is moving to secure his position, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iranian-regime-infighting\/khameneis-succession-strategy-using-palizdars-corruption-revelations-to-legitimize-mojtabas-rise-in-iran\/\">with Abbas Palizdar<\/a>, an influential figure, describing him as \u201cwell-equipped to implement necessary reforms.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite such efforts, Khamenei and his administration appear aware of the fragility of their position. The regime\u2019s attempts to soften the blow of economic policies through rumor and staged announcements, such as with fuel pricing, reveal lessons learned from the backlash in 2019. The government has continually tested the public\u2019s response before implementing price hikes or cuts to avoid widespread unrest. But as Raghfar and other analysts have warned, these measures may no longer be enough.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">With escalating pressures on both the international and domestic fronts, Khamenei now faces limited options and a restless population. The sentiment in the streets echoes a growing defiance, with chants of \u201cFight and we will fight back\u201d reverberating across the nation. Viewing its investment in Western appeasement policy slipping away, and with its proxy forces and regional strategy severely weakened, Khamenei finds himself confronting a younger generation\u2014angrier, more resilient, and led by the <a href=\"https:\/\/english.mojahedin.org\/iranian-resistance-units\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PMOI-led Resistance Units<\/a>\u2014poised to make this a defining moment for Iran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read As Iran approaches the fifth anniversary of the November 2019 protests, the country finds itself gripped by a severe socio-economic crisis, intensified by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei&rsquo;s risky [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":69,"featured_media":237414,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[130],"class_list":{"0":"post-325772","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-protests","8":"tag-iran-protests"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>As November 2019 Uprising Anniversary Nears, Iran\u2019s Regime Lacks Regional Escape Route Amid Brewing Unrest - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read As Iran approaches the fifth anniversary of the November 2019 protests, the country finds itself gripped by a severe socio-economic\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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