{"id":330173,"date":"2025-04-06T13:04:40","date_gmt":"2025-04-06T12:04:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=330173"},"modified":"2025-04-06T13:04:40","modified_gmt":"2025-04-06T12:04:40","slug":"iranian-regimes-fractured-state-revealed-amid-fear-of-imminent-overthrow","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iranian-regime-infighting\/iranian-regimes-fractured-state-revealed-amid-fear-of-imminent-overthrow\/","title":{"rendered":"Iranian Regime\u2019s Fractured State Revealed Amid Fear of Imminent Overthrow"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_228163\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-228163\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-228163\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/Iran_infighting_crisis_19102020-1.jpg\" alt=\"Infighting in Iranian regime's Parliament (file photo)\" width=\"1000\" height=\"610\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-228163\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Infighting in the Iranian regime&#8217;s Parliament (file photo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">As tensions grow both domestically and internationally, the Iranian regime finds itself increasingly divided over how to respond to mounting pressure. Senior officials\u2019 remarks, whether made at Friday prayers or through state media, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iranian-regime-infighting\/irans-regime-infighting-escalates-as-rival-factions-clash-over-power-corruption-and-policy-failures\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reveal deepening fractures<\/a> within the ruling establishment. Now, the looming fear of defections from within its own ranks adds to the regime&#8217;s instability.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Widening Divisions Amid Crises<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">While Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), publicly dismissed concerns of war on April 5, his rhetoric appeared aimed more at reassuring regime loyalists than addressing strategic realities. \u201cWe are not worried about war at all. We will not start a war, but we are ready for any war,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/donya-e-eqtesad.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-62\/4167799-%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B3%D8%AA%DB%8C%D9%85\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Salami stated<\/a>, adding that America\u2019s defenses are less robust than those of Israel.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But beneath this outward bravado lies panic and dissent. Iran\u2019s escalating crises\u2014economic collapse, regional isolation, and popular discontent\u2014have given rise to increasingly public disagreements among state officials. During Friday prayers in Qom, <a href=\"https:\/\/qomefarda.ir\/53337\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Alireza Arafi warned<\/a> against negotiations with the United States, framing the idea as a betrayal of national dignity. He cited past diplomatic failures, including the 1953 coup and the JCPOA, as proof that the West seeks only to undermine Iran\u2019s sovereignty.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Intensified Factional Fighting Within <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>&#39;s Clerical Regime Amidst Crises<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rZfrRCgW7v\">https:\/\/t.co\/rZfrRCgW7v<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1908848543084794356?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Tehran, <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/awSw7xUvAko\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Heshmatollah Ghanbari<\/a>, a state-affiliated scholar, echoed these sentiments but with sharper condemnation of those within the regime itself who advocate for talks. \u201cThere have always been cowardly factions in the country. Some people think they can negotiate with someone like Trump and protect Iran\u2019s interests. This is a misguided and strategically flawed calculation,\u201d Ghanbari declared.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Ilam, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6424574\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Allahnour Karimitabar<\/a>, another Friday prayer leader, attempted to rally the regime\u2019s demoralized forces by declaring, \u201cDo not be afraid, do not be intimidated!\u201d\u2014a message seemingly directed at increasingly disillusioned IRGC and Basij forces who are terrified by the prospect of U.S. military action and popular uprisings. His assertion that Trump would never enter a war with Iran due to economic calculations was contradicted by his previous insults branding Trump as a madman and a gambler.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Competing Narratives Within the Regime<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Regime clerics are increasingly framing the country\u2019s economic collapse as an act of external sabotage. In Zanjan, <a href=\"https:\/\/farsnews.ir\/S_mohammdi\/1743762677107287308\/%D8%A2%D9%85%D8%B1%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%AC%D9%86%DA%AF-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D8%B6%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mostafa Hosseini insisted<\/a> that Iran is already engaged in a prolonged war, primarily economic, and that \u201cthe true battlefront lies in countering sanctions and economic sabotage.\u201d His remarks suggest an effort to redirect blame for Iran\u2019s collapsing economy away from domestic mismanagement and corruption.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Fierce Infighting in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Clerical Regime Over Hijab Law and Political Power Struggles<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/16WRvW0UFn\">https:\/\/t.co\/16WRvW0UFn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1900614873543045273?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, the crisis is not confined to economic hardship. The regime\u2019s own media reflects growing desperation and division. The <a href=\"https:\/\/kayhan.ir\/fa\/news\/308059\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Kayhan newspaper<\/a>, serving as Khamenei\u2019s mouthpiece, dismissed the possibility of successful negotiations with the United States, framing talks as a deceptive trap.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Other regime-affiliated outlets have admitted to escalating divisions. The IRGC\u2019s own daily, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.javanonline.ir\/fa\/news\/1289440\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Javan, conceded<\/a> that direct negotiations with the United States are unlikely to yield meaningful results, acknowledging that Trump\u2019s calls for talks are little more than attempts to pressure Tehran into submission.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">Hamshahri, another state-controlled publication, <a href=\"https:\/\/newspaper.hamshahrionline.ir\/id\/251946\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">issued a scathing rebuke<\/a> to those advocating negotiations, stating: &#8220;We must show the terrified faction inclined toward negotiation that speaking of suicide to escape death is neither intelligent, nor honorable, nor rational, and it has nothing to do with one\u2019s political or religious inclination.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-pm-slice=\"1 1 []\">Meanwhile, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armanmeli.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%86-16\/1163958-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B4%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%BE-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D8%B0%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%B1%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%84%D9%88-%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%AA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arman-e-Melli hinted<\/a> at behind-the-scenes talks mediated by third parties, reflecting Tehran\u2019s internal indecision and disunity.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Ruling Factions Descend into Confusion and Infighting Amid Mounting Crises<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Ph4mFLOHK4\">https:\/\/t.co\/Ph4mFLOHK4<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1899843072575279499?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fear and Fractures<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Beyond rhetorical attacks, deeper fractures are emerging as various factions attempt to consolidate their power. Former parliamentarian <a href=\"http:\/\/www.irdiplomacy.ir\/fa\/news\/2032058\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jalal Mirzaei admitted<\/a> that \u201cConstant talk of possible war and conflict only frightens domestic investors. It drives people to hoard gold and foreign currency, ultimately consuming the economy from within.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Now, the regime faces the added fear of defections from within its own ranks. Mohammad Manan-Raisi, a member of the Iranian parliament from Qom, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1048003\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">warned on April 2<\/a> that if the controversial Hijab law is not enforced, the \u201chard core\u201d of the regime will become inactive and refuse to defend the system.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In response, the regime-affiliated website <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/amp\/news\/1048003\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Asre-Iran wrote<\/a>: \u201cIf your budget is cut, if your qualifications for parliament are not approved, if you are seriously held accountable in your position, if one day you see that to preserve the state you must pay instead of receiving favors, then you so-called firebrand revolutionaries will either turn your swords against this very state or vanish as if you never existed.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>&#39;s Regime Infighting Escalates as Rival Factions Clash Over Power, Corruption, and Policy Failures<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tlsz80vGAA\">https:\/\/t.co\/tlsz80vGAA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1898433539894616243?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ticking Clock<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Iranian regime\u2019s internal rifts are increasingly laid bare as foreign and domestic pressures converge. While some officials, like Salami, attempt to project strength and defiance, others openly acknowledge the regime\u2019s inability to address the escalating economic and political crises. The latest warnings of defection from regime loyalists only underline the depth of the crisis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The ongoing infighting and contradictory messages from various factions reveal that the regime is not merely suffering from external pressure; it is disintegrating from within. As regime insiders warn of internal infighting, it becomes increasingly clear that Tehran\u2019s greatest threat comes not from abroad but from within its own fractured establishment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read As tensions grow both domestically and internationally, the Iranian regime finds itself increasingly divided over how to respond to mounting pressure. Senior officials&rsquo; remarks, whether made at Friday [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":228163,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,5450],"tags":[130],"class_list":{"0":"post-330173","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-protests","8":"category-iranian-regime-infighting","9":"tag-iran-protests"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iranian Regime\u2019s Fractured State Revealed Amid Fear of Imminent Overthrow - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read As tensions grow both domestically and internationally, the Iranian regime finds itself increasingly divided over how to respond to\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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