{"id":330280,"date":"2025-04-08T19:58:04","date_gmt":"2025-04-08T18:58:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=330280"},"modified":"2025-04-08T20:03:28","modified_gmt":"2025-04-08T19:03:28","slug":"internal-defections-cripple-irans-regime-ahead-of-high-stakes-u-s-negotiations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/nuclear\/internal-defections-cripple-irans-regime-ahead-of-high-stakes-u-s-negotiations\/","title":{"rendered":"Internal Defections Cripple Iran\u2019s Regime Ahead of High-Stakes U.S. Negotiations"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_330285\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-330285\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-330285\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Hassan-Abedian-Friday-Prayer-leader-in-Ardabil.jpg\" alt=\"Hassan Abedian, Friday Prayer leader of Ardabil, delivers a sermon on April 4, 2025\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Hassan-Abedian-Friday-Prayer-leader-in-Ardabil.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Hassan-Abedian-Friday-Prayer-leader-in-Ardabil-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Hassan-Abedian-Friday-Prayer-leader-in-Ardabil-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Hassan-Abedian-Friday-Prayer-leader-in-Ardabil-746x420.jpg 746w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Hassan-Abedian-Friday-Prayer-leader-in-Ardabil-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Hassan-Abedian-Friday-Prayer-leader-in-Ardabil-696x392.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-330285\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Hassan Abedian, Friday Prayer leader of Ardabil, delivers a sermon on April 4, 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Three-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The Iranian regime is ensnared in a crisis of legitimacy, caught between a paralyzing fear of domestic rebellion and the looming threat of foreign pressure. While the question of whether to engage in direct or indirect talks with the United States continues to plague Tehran\u2019s highest circles, officials are struggling to justify their positions to their own disillusioned base. The mere suggestion of compromise has stirred anger, suspicion, and resentment among its loyalists, revealing a crisis of confidence that threatens to shatter the regime from within.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">A Fractured Message from the Pulpit<span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In recent Friday prayers, representatives of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought to reassure the regime\u2019s rapidly demoralizing forces through feverish rhetoric. But their attempts to rally the troops have only exposed a deeper sense of insecurity and decay.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Hassan Abedian, the Friday Prayer leader in Ardabil, <a href=\"https:\/\/defapress.ir\/fa\/news\/736059\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">delivered a speech<\/a> on April 4, 2025, riddled with contradictions and admissions of fear. His words revealed a growing desperation among officials trying to keep their base from crumbling.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cWe are more worried about the bullets that hit our minds than the bombs that fall on our heads. Now, they do not shoot bullets at our hearts, but rather at our minds,\u201d Abedian admitted. His language reflected the crumbling ideological cohesion of the regime.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Real Goal of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Negotiations: Surviving, Not Settling\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/TaSPUkGx6K\">https:\/\/t.co\/TaSPUkGx6K<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1884542488632795357?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cIf American destroyers move or bombers arrive, it\u2019s very unlikely to be a direct attack. These are merely tools to bombard our minds and take away our dignity.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Abedian\u2019s most revealing comment: \u201cIf they force us to negotiate, it will be under the threat of death. And if we negotiate but refuse their demands, they will still threaten us with death.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Desperate Mobilization<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Ahmadreza Radan, commander of the regime\u2019s State Security Forces, boasted in a televised interview about <a href=\"https:\/\/snn.ir\/fa\/news\/1246331\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deploying 250,000 security personnel<\/a> during the Nowruz holiday. The staggering scale of the operation was meant to signal control, but only underscored the regime\u2019s panic.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cFrom the borders to the cities, from the cities to the villages, and from the villages to the roads, we are determined to increase security. The goal is to make sure no criminals feel they have a safe space,\u201d Radan said. His description of total lockdowns, border patrols, and constant surveillance shows a regime so terrified of unrest that it views even minor gatherings as existential threats.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Khamenei&#39;s <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/EidAlFitr?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#EidAlFitr<\/a> Speech Reveals Fear of Popular Uprising Over Foreign Threats<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/dODyuhYMCU\">https:\/\/t.co\/dODyuhYMCU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1906654027342811145?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 31, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Radan\u2019s claim of ensuring \u201cthe safety of our dear citizens\u201d is a thin cover for what he really means: protecting the regime\u2019s own survival. His militarization of daily life is less about crime prevention and more about preemptively quashing dissent.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Infighting and Fear of Defections<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The regime\u2019s existential fear is not only felt by domestic or foreign enemies but also by\u00a0fractures within its own ranks. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rouydad24.ir\/fa\/news\/406348\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mohammad Manan-Raisi<\/a>, a member of parliament from Qom, recently warned that failing to enforce mandatory hijab laws would cause the regime\u2019s \u201chard core\u201d to lose motivation to defend the system.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">A scathing response from the state-run <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1048003\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Asr Iran<\/span><\/i><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> laid bare the regime\u2019s internal dread: \u201cIf you don\u2019t receive your funding, if your qualifications to run for parliament are not approved, if you are held accountable for your positions, then the same revolutionary firebrands will either draw swords against this very system or vanish as if they never existed.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Even officials loyal to the regime now fear mass defections and the collapse of their support base. When insiders warn that \u201chard core\u201d elements could desert the system, it signals a far deeper crisis.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Exposes Its Weakness Amid Internal Rifts on U.S. Negotiations<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NgwmaRnIqG\">https:\/\/t.co\/NgwmaRnIqG<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1881401305962303686?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Facing the Worst of Both Worlds<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The regime\u2019s problem is not merely about deciding whether to negotiate or not. Khamenei understands that appeasing the U.S. by compromising on core issues like its nuclear program, missile arsenal, and regional proxies would risk breaking the spine of the regime\u2019s power structure. Such concessions would devastate the regime\u2019s credibility and cause massive defections from the hardcore that has been its only real base of support.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">But defiance is just as perilous. As officials try to rally their own forces with slogans about \u201csecurity\u201d and \u201cresistance,\u201d it\u2019s clear that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/khameneis-eid-al-fitr-speech-reveals-fear-of-popular-uprising-over-foreign-threats\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">their worst fear<\/a> is not American bombers but another nationwide uprising. Their real worry is that the disillusioned masses, battered by years of poverty, injustice, and state violence, will seize upon the regime\u2019s vulnerabilities and bring it down from within.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">By any concessions to the U.S., the regime will lose its very survival mechanisms. The fear is that if it compromises, it will see mass defections and a complete collapse of the hard core that it desperately needs to defend against an overwhelmingly resentful society. As a result, Khamenei is paralyzed, unable to move forward or back, and his regime is left to rot, cornered and petrified by its own internal contradictions.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134233117&quot;:true,&quot;134233118&quot;:true,&quot;201341983&quot;:0,&quot;335559740&quot;:240}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read&nbsp; The Iranian regime is ensnared in a crisis of legitimacy, caught between a paralyzing fear of domestic rebellion and the looming threat of foreign pressure. While the question [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":330285,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,5450],"tags":[1175],"class_list":{"0":"post-330280","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nuclear","8":"category-iranian-regime-infighting","9":"tag-iran-nuclear"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Internal Defections Cripple Iran\u2019s Regime Ahead of High-Stakes U.S. Negotiations - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read\u00a0 The Iranian regime is ensnared in a crisis of legitimacy, caught between a paralyzing fear of domestic rebellion and the looming threat\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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