{"id":331122,"date":"2025-05-02T17:27:12","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T16:27:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=331122"},"modified":"2025-05-02T17:27:12","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T16:27:12","slug":"irans-colossal-budget-deficit-how-regime-mismanagement-drives-economic-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-colossal-budget-deficit-how-regime-mismanagement-drives-economic-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran’s Colossal Budget Deficit: How Regime Mismanagement Drives Economic Collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Iran’s economy is staggering under the weight of a chronic and deepening budget deficit, a festering wound inflicted by decades of the clerical regime’s mismanagement and corruption. Far from being a mere accounting problem, the deficit acts as a clear indicator of systemic failure, fueling rampant inflation, deepening inequality, and pushing the nation’s financial structures towards the brink. Official reports paint a grim picture, projecting an unprecedented deficit nearing 1,800 trillion tomans<\/a> for the Iranian year 1404 (March 2025-March 2026), signaling a crisis rooted in past policy failures that the regime shows no inclination to address.<\/p>\n

Facing this enormous shortfall, the regime resorts to desperate and destructive measures. One primary tactic is massive borrowing through the sale of debt bonds. In 2024, bond sales hit a record high of over 380 trillion tomans<\/a>. However, this merely kicks the can down the road, as a staggering 300 trillion tomans of these bonds, plus interest, mature in the current year, forcing the government into a vicious cycle of borrowing more just to repay past debts. This strategy, according to Massoud Roghani Zanjani, former head of the Planning and Budget Organization, inevitably leads to imbalances<\/a> in the banking system, surges in liquidity, and the twin evils of inflation and economic stagnation.<\/p>\n

Printing Money: Accelerant for Inflation<\/h3>\n

When borrowing isn’t enough, the regime turns to the printing press. Budget expert Mohammad Hossein Memarian anticipates that even if the 2025 deficit is somehow contained to 500 trillion tomans, it will largely be covered through “monetization”\u2014effectively printing money. The direct consequence, as confirmed<\/a> by former Central Bank governor Akbar Komijani, is further inflation (already projected by the IMF to hit 43.3% in 2025) and a collapse in the national currency’s value, undermining any potential for economic stability.<\/p>\n

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#Iran<\/a>\u2019s 1404 Budget: Crushing the Population to Fund Regime Survivalhttps:\/\/t.co\/WyAw7LLjk7<\/a><\/p>\n

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n