{"id":333439,"date":"2025-06-26T21:57:55","date_gmt":"2025-06-26T20:57:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=333439"},"modified":"2025-07-01T20:28:38","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T19:28:38","slug":"irans-regime-scrambles-to-mask-defeat-control-fallout-after-ceasefire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/irans-regime-scrambles-to-mask-defeat-control-fallout-after-ceasefire\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Regime Scrambles to Mask Defeat, Control Fallout After Ceasefire"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_333440\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-333440\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-333440 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iran-isfahan-aledged-israeli-spy-arrested.jpg\" alt=\"On June 26, 2025, Iranian state media reported the arrest of alleged Israeli spies in Isfahan, central Iran\" width=\"1000\" height=\"566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iran-isfahan-aledged-israeli-spy-arrested.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iran-isfahan-aledged-israeli-spy-arrested-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iran-isfahan-aledged-israeli-spy-arrested-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iran-isfahan-aledged-israeli-spy-arrested-742x420.jpg 742w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iran-isfahan-aledged-israeli-spy-arrested-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/iran-isfahan-aledged-israeli-spy-arrested-696x394.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-333440\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">On June 26, 2025, Iranian state media reported the arrest of alleged Israeli spies in Isfahan, central Iran<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Four-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the wake of a fragile ceasefire with Israel following a destructive 12-day war, the Iranian regime has launched a full-scale effort to project strength and suppress internal cracks\u2014political, military, and societal\u2014that threaten to widen. The regime\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top officials have flooded the airwaves with triumphant rhetoric, while insiders warn of strategic failure, and the security apparatus intensifies repression to prevent a collapse in morale.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Khamenei\u2019s Bluster and the War Narrative<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In his first public remarks after the ceasefire, Khamenei sought to portray the conflict as a historic victory. \u201cThe Zionist regime, with all its noise and claims, was practically crushed under the blows of the Islamic Republic,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.leader.ir\/fa\/content\/28277\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he declared<\/a>, adding: \u201cThis regime had never imagined such blows were even possible.\u201d He boasted that his regime had dealt a \u201chard slap to the face of America\u201d by striking the U.S. Al Udeid base in Qatar\u2014a strike which U.S. President Trump later revealed was pre-announced and deconflicted, with no casualties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Khamenei dismissed the notion of Iran capitulating to U.S. demands. \u201cIt is no longer about nuclear enrichment or nuclear industry. The issue is that Iran must surrender,\u201d he said, before scoffing: \u201cThis talk is far too big for the mouth of the American president.\u201d He framed any suggestion of de-escalation as weakness, warning that Iran has the capability to strike again if needed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This aggressive posture, however, belies deep fractures inside the regime\u2014and mounting evidence of a costly and avoidable war that has left the population disillusioned and the security forces shaken.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Responds to Military Losses with Repression and Belligerence<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xZNoIoYUWi\">https:\/\/t.co\/xZNoIoYUWi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1937949435465510995?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Systemic conformity<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, former president <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/878329\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hassan Rouhani warned<\/a> that the ceasefire could be a deceptive pause rather than an end to threats, admitting the war came at a \u201cheavy cost\u201d while crediting Khamenei\u2019s leadership for turning retreat into resistance. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher <a href=\"https:\/\/snn.ir\/fa\/news\/1277950\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ghalibaf framed<\/a> the conflict as a divine trial rather than a military failure. Their remarks reveal a regime scrambling to justify the war\u2019s devastation and reframe it as a show of strength, even as the consequences point to strategic miscalculation and deep vulnerability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">President <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/news\/2082139\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Masoud Pezeshkian tried<\/a> to balance the regime\u2019s narrative of strength with cautious acknowledgments of the toll. \u201cThe loss of compatriots, scientists, and commanders, and the damage to infrastructure, represents a significant blow,\u201d he said. But he simultaneously claimed that \u201cthe enemy accepted a ceasefire only after suffering harsh punishment.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udd34 Breaking<br \/>The Iranian regime has launched 6 missiles toward a U.S. base in Qatar.<br \/>In response, U.S. bases in Bahrain, Iraq, and Kuwait are on high alert for further missile threats.<br \/>Tensions escalate in the region.<br \/>Reports indicate explosions were heard in Doha <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Qatar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Qatar<\/a>\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ylac7fe2bU\">pic.twitter.com\/ylac7fe2bU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; SIMAY AZADI TV (@en_simayazadi) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/en_simayazadi\/status\/1937200893281087696?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ceasefire as \u201cStrategic Mistake\u201d<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Beneath the surface, regime insiders are bitterly divided. Abolfazl Zohrehvand, a senior member of parliament\u2019s Security Commission, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.etemadonline.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-9\/720898-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%DB%8C%D9%84-%D8%A2%D8%AA%D8%B4-%D8%A8%D8%B3-%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B6%D9%84-%D8%B8%D9%87%D8%B1%D9%87-%D9%88%D9%86%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">blasted the ceasefire<\/a> as a \u201cstrategic mistake,\u201d insisting that \u201cIsrael never respects any ceasefire\u2014just look at their record with Hezbollah.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A Qom Seminary-affiliated media described the truce as a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hawzahnews.com\/news\/1271550\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tactical breathing space<\/a>\u201d rather than a concession. Extremist figures like Meysam Nili, a key figure in the ultraconservative Paydari Front, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabarfoori.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%AE%D9%84%DB%8C-46\/3150009-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%AA-%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%AB%D9%85-%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%A6%DB%8C%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B0%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%B1%D9%87-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%B6%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%B2%D8%B4%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%A7-%D9%88%DB%8C%D8%AF%D8%A6%D9%88\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">warned<\/a> that the call for negotiations during active conflict reflected serious &#8220;security breaches&#8221; and infiltration of decision-making bodies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Others, like regime insider Abdoljavad <a href=\"https:\/\/armandaily.ir\/%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D9%81%D8%B1%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AD%DA%A9%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%9B-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AA%D8%BA%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%B1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mousavi, advocated<\/a> for a more pragmatic reassessment, warning against self-delusion and \u201croaring speeches\u201d detached from the regime&#8217;s actual standing. Still, these more rational voices remain marginal.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">War at Home: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Prisons in Crisis Amid Regional Conflict<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/TATMVpvKFn\">https:\/\/t.co\/TATMVpvKFn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1937750740925075817?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Crackdown, Desertion, and Fear of Collapse<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As the regime declares \u201cvictory,\u201d its security organs are scrambling to contain widespread internal fallout. Reports from multiple provinces indicate <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/irans-regime-responds-to-military-losses-with-repression-and-belligerence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">hundreds of arrests<\/a>\u2014including at least 700 people accused of espionage for Israel, and over 10,000 drones reportedly seized in Tehran alone.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Military and paramilitary disobedience has surged. According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fardanews.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-73\/1365522-%D9%87%D8%B4%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%85%DB%8C-%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D8%AF%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%87-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%B4%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Farda News<\/a> (later removed), there is a growing wave of desertions, refusal to carry out orders, and disappearance of personnel in the military and security branches. In response, the regime\u2019s General Staff authorized local commanders to use \u201cthe harshest possible measures\u201d against noncompliant forces.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In cities like Kermanshah, Shiraz, and Gilan, mass arrests have followed anti-regime activity or alleged \u201cdisruption of security.\u201d The crackdown is intended not just to punish dissent but to intimidate wavering personnel\u2014an attempt to stop the erosion from within.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Faces Internal Reckoning as Ceasefire Begins<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cC94qGKplK\">https:\/\/t.co\/cC94qGKplK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1937900058193563710?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nuclear Defiance: Doubling Down, Not Backing Down<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Rather than seeking de-escalation, officials have escalated nuclear rhetoric. Deputy Foreign Minister <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/878552\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Abbas Araghchi declared<\/a> that the Israeli and American strikes had only \u201cstrengthened Iran\u2019s determination\u201d to pursue its nuclear program. \u201cNo one in Iran will abandon this technology,\u201d he said, warning that \u201cthe future trajectory of Iran\u2019s nuclear policy and its relationship to the nonproliferation regime will inevitably change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Araghchi accused the IAEA of politically motivated reporting and explicitly rejected a return to negotiations with the U.S. unless military attacks ceased. \u201cEurope is not a real player,\u201d he added dismissively, \u201creal decisions are made elsewhere.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Breaking?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Breaking<\/a> reports from Iran indicate that the entrance gate of Iran&#39;s notorious Evin Prison has been targeted in the latest attacks by Israel. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jgFN6Ccxxk\">pic.twitter.com\/jgFN6Ccxxk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; SIMAY AZADI TV (@en_simayazadi) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/en_simayazadi\/status\/1937099280071659681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Propaganda Machine in Overdrive<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regime has activated its state media and Basij mobilization network in full force to contain the psychological impact of the war. Choreographed rallies, glorification of the Supreme Leader, and staged public celebrations are flooding airwaves to counter growing public anger and doubt.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In Tehran, IRGC-aligned MP Mojtaba Zarei ridiculed the idea of a formal ceasefire. \u201cThis is a misuse of words,\u201d he said. \u201cThere is no peace, no agreement\u2014only a pause.\u201d He promised the regime\u2019s parliament would ban IAEA chief Rafael Grossi from entering Iran and revive legislation for punishing any citizen cooperating with \u201chostile governments.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At these rallies, slogans like <em>\u201cDeath to America\u201d<\/em> and <em>\u201cIf Khamenei gives the order, we will wage jihad\u201d<\/em> were chanted to signal resilience\u2014but to many Iranians, they ring hollow after a war that exposed the regime\u2019s military vulnerability and brought devastation home.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why State Officials Boast About <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Role in the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/MiddleEastConflict?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#MiddleEastConflict<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/r837fO4NEz\">https:\/\/t.co\/r837fO4NEz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1748843993855590776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 20, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">A Regime on the Edge<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Despite official triumphalism, the clerical dictatorship emerges from this conflict weakened, divided, and increasingly dependent on repression to maintain control. It has shown no sign of moderating its policies, even as internal defection, economic strain, and political dissent continue to mount.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For a regime built on the projection of power, even the appearance of retreat risks a chain reaction of collapse. As such, Tehran\u2019s post-ceasefire posture\u2014aggressive, repressive, and ideologically rigid\u2014reveals less about strength and more about fear of unraveling from within.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read In the wake of a fragile ceasefire with Israel following a destructive 12-day war, the Iranian regime has launched a full-scale effort to project strength and suppress internal [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":69,"featured_media":333440,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[277],"class_list":{"0":"post-333439","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-iran-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Regime Scrambles to Mask 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