{"id":333675,"date":"2025-07-01T20:22:51","date_gmt":"2025-07-01T19:22:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=333675"},"modified":"2025-07-01T20:26:49","modified_gmt":"2025-07-01T19:26:49","slug":"tehrans-war-fallout-exposes-a-cornered-regime-gripped-by-fear-crackdown-and-global-isolation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/tehrans-war-fallout-exposes-a-cornered-regime-gripped-by-fear-crackdown-and-global-isolation\/","title":{"rendered":"Tehran\u2019s War Fallout Exposes a Cornered Regime Gripped by Fear, Crackdown, and Global Isolation"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_323396\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-323396\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-323396 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-majlis-parliament-tense.jpg\" alt=\"File photo: Iranian parliament (Majlis) descends into shouting and uproar\" width=\"1000\" height=\"571\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-majlis-parliament-tense.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-majlis-parliament-tense-300x171.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-majlis-parliament-tense-768x439.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-majlis-parliament-tense-736x420.jpg 736w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-majlis-parliament-tense-150x86.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-majlis-parliament-tense-696x397.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-323396\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">File photo: Iranian parliament (Majlis) descends into shouting and uproar<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Four-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In the fragile aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel, the clerical dictatorship ruling Iran is lashing out in multiple directions\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/iran-regime-shaken-by-ceasefire-fallout-fear-of-unrest-mounts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">internally and externally<\/a>\u2014with a strategy that combines mass repression, orchestrated paranoia, and aggressive rhetoric aimed at reshaping regional dynamics on its own terms. Beneath the defiance lies a deeply unstable regime, burdened by military losses, internal dissent, economic collapse, and diplomatic isolation.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">At the heart of the regime\u2019s survival strategy is the invocation of \u201cespionage\u201d as a catch-all charge\u2014used to justify swift executions, mass arrests, and the detention of foreign nationals, in what critics describe as a calculated campaign of \u201chostage diplomacy.\u201d According to regime\u2019s judiciary spokesperson, Asghar Jahangir, foreign nationals\u2014identified only as \u201cEuropean citizens\u201d allegedly linked to Israel\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sharghdaily.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%87-220\/1025907-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AE%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%85-%D9%87%D9%85%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D9%84\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">have been arrested<\/a> in several provinces, accused of &#8220;collaborating with the enemy.&#8221; He added, \u201cWe will deal with traitors and sellouts without leniency,\u201d and emphasized that judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei had ordered \u201cextraordinary\u201d trials for crimes such as treason, espionage, and betrayal.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>&#39;s Regime Tightens Grip with Harsh New Espionage Law <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EPfTqGQrbS\">https:\/\/t.co\/EPfTqGQrbS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1940057947754897422?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">The enemy inside<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This crusade on so-called spies has already claimed multiple lives. As reported by multiple sources, three Iranian Kurdish laborers were executed within 48 hours of the ceasefire, accused of spying for Israel\u2019s Mossad. Human rights defenders vehemently disputed these claims. One activist told <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">ABC<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">, \u201cThis is a very corrupt regime and there is no legal process in Iran. These men had no access to classified information, and they were denied fair trials.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The judiciary\u2019s sudden acceleration of death sentences is widely seen as an attempt to preempt unrest. The human rights organization<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">s<\/span> <span data-contrast=\"auto\">have<\/span> <span data-contrast=\"auto\">reported<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> that ov<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">er 1,600<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> individuals have been arrested since the war began, with over 98 foreign nationals detained under charges ranging from illegal entry to espionage. Social media accounts and activists point to brutal treatment in custody, including threats of collective executions. One source described over 200 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yjc.ir\/fa\/news\/8969361\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iranians arrested<\/a> for acts as minor as &#8216;celebrating&#8217; or &#8216;walking near military sites.\u2019<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">According to Amnesty International, these trials and executions are part of a broader state policy to use capital punishment \u201cas a tool of control and intimidation.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The regime\u2019s obsession with infiltration has extended to digital space. Jahangir said courts will also target \u201caccounts that collaborated with the enemy,\u201d and praised what he called \u201cpublic informants who reported dissidents.\u201d Simultaneously, parliament is fast-tracking laws that would classify \u201cmedia cooperation\u201d with Western outlets as <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201ccorruption on Earth,\u201d<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> a charge punishable by death.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Regime Shaken by Ceasefire Fallout, Fear of Unrest Mounts<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iL8tM2lRNd\">https:\/\/t.co\/iL8tM2lRNd<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1939763080805728284?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Meltdown<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Yet even as it clamps down, the regime\u2019s messaging reveals an unsteady hand\u2014desperate to shift blame outward, while showing signs of internal rupture. Key officials have acknowledged how close the war came to breaking the system.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404040805254\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ali Larijani<\/a>, senior adviser to the Supreme Leader, admitted on state television: \u201cTheir plan was to eliminate the heads of the state, and then come for the leadership.\u201d He said 18 senior IRGC commanders were killed in the opening strikes. Larijani himself claimed to have received a death threat: <\/span>\u201cA man called and said I had 12 hours to leave Tehran, or I\u2019d meet the same fate as [General] Shahid Baqeri.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaee took aim at the West, accusing the IAEA of complicity and France of \u201cproviding Israel a pretext for aggression.\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6516133\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">He warned<\/a>: \u201cNegotiation with such an approach is meaningless\u2026 They must answer for their role in this war.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In a letter to the UN, Iranian officials demanded the Security Council label Israel and the United States as initiators of war and hold them financially liable for reparations.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Struggles to Mask Post-War Weakness with Rhetoric and Repression<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ITcBED4e0M\">https:\/\/t.co\/ITcBED4e0M<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1939040021484376490?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 28, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Aggression to hide desperation<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Meanwhile, other regime figures cast blame inward. Deputy Parliament Speaker Abbas Araghchi bluntly stated: \u201cWe must assume a war footing in all sectors\u2014defense, economy, culture. There is no trust in the enemy.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Esmaeil Kowsari, a senior IRGC officer and MP, <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/879745\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told a pro-regime outlet: <\/a><\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cWe are not in a ceasefire. This is a temporary halt. The war could resume at any moment.\u201d<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> He went so far as to boast that Iran pre-warned the U.S. through Qatar before attacking their airbase\u2014a sign of political calculation and an eagerness to retain plausible deniability on the international stage.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">But beneath these theatrics lies a terrified power elite, acutely aware of its vulnerability. As the former intelligence interrogator turned media activist Abbas Abdi\u2014writing in the regime-linked <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.etemadonline.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-9\/721514-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B3-%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D8%AA%D8%B4-%D8%A8%D8%B3-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A6%DB%8C%D9%84\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Etemad<\/span><\/i><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> newspaper\u2014put it: \u201cWhat is different from before the war is our perception of the future. Even state agencies can no longer plan beyond daily survival.\u201d He questioned the logic behind the regime\u2019s actions: \u201cWhy was a ceasefire accepted if war would resume? What ideas are on the table to prevent this? The people have a right to know.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Scrambles to Mask Defeat, Control Fallout After Ceasefire<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qC7wxMACAf\">https:\/\/t.co\/qC7wxMACAf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1938341139125338588?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Multidimensional worries<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The fears are not just political. The Iranian rial has collapsed, breaching 90,000 to the dollar, while the<a href=\"https:\/\/iranfocus.com\/economy\/54630-bloody-day-for-tehran-stock-exchange-after-12-day-war-billions-of-rials-exit-market\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> stock market hemorrhaged<\/a> nearly 200,000 points in three days. This financial meltdown, coupled with military losses and growing unrest, has left the regime clutching for control by any means.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This is why, observers note, repression has become not just a tactic\u2014but the regime\u2019s primary instrument of survival. Mass executions, mass arrests, threats of collective punishment, internet crackdowns, and xenophobic rhetoric all form a wall against an explosion that officials clearly see coming.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The most telling indication of this came from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6515670\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ali Agha-Mohammadi<\/a>, a member of the regime\u2019s Expediency Council, during the funeral of an IRGC commander: \u201cToday, we are caught between two games\u2014one of conspiracy, and the other of negotiation. The enemy trained 50,000 spies over ten years. If anyone feels fear, do not let it in. We must show mercy to one another.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is an unusual appeal to unity in a fractured system that, for decades, ruled by fear, not solidarity.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Responds to Military Losses with Repression and Belligerence<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xZNoIoYUWi\">https:\/\/t.co\/xZNoIoYUWi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1937949435465510995?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Fractures resurface<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">While regime propaganda, cyber-army trolls, and foreign-based lobby groups push the narrative that \u201cIranians have rallied around the flag,\u201d the regime\u2019s brutal crackdown in the post-war period tells a very different story.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Every arrest, every execution, and every new grievance deepens the rift between a clerical dictatorship that has betrayed its own people\u2014siphoning national wealth into foreign adventurism\u2014and a society increasingly suffocated and outraged. Rather than fostering internal cohesion, the war has accelerated the regime\u2019s isolation both at home and abroad.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Figures like Mahmoud Sadeghi and Masoud <a href=\"https:\/\/armandaily.ir\/%D9%BE%D8%B2%D8%B4%DA%A9%DB%8C%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%85%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AE%DB%8C-%DA%AF%D9%84%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%87%D9%87%D8%A7\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pezeshkian have called<\/a> for \u201cnational unity\u201d and \u201crebuilding social capital,\u201d but critics see this as opportunism. These same individuals were complicit\u2014or silent\u2014during the crackdowns of 2019 and 2022. Many Iranians refer to them as \u201cphony reformists\u201d seeking a lifeline as the foundations of the regime erode.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This post-war moment has revealed not resilience, but systemic fragility. What remains of state power is upheld by executions, propaganda, and the silencing of dissent. In attempting to cover its military and political failures, the regime has turned inward\u2014on its citizens, on its own commanders, and on the illusions it once used to project strength.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As one activist wrote on social media: \u201cThe regime thinks it can scare the people into silence again. But this time, it\u2019s not the same Iran. The war may have ended, but the fire inside society has just begun.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read&nbsp; In the fragile aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel, the clerical dictatorship ruling Iran is lashing out in multiple directions&mdash;internally and externally&mdash;with a strategy that combines mass [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":323396,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[277],"class_list":{"0":"post-333675","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-iran-news"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tehran\u2019s War Fallout Exposes a Cornered Regime Gripped by Fear, Crackdown, and Global Isolation - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Four-minute read\u00a0 In the fragile aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel, the clerical dictatorship ruling Iran is lashing out in multiple\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/tehrans-war-fallout-exposes-a-cornered-regime-gripped-by-fear-crackdown-and-global-isolation\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Tehran\u2019s War Fallout Exposes a Cornered Regime Gripped by Fear, Crackdown, and Global Isolation - 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