{"id":334754,"date":"2025-07-26T09:52:33","date_gmt":"2025-07-26T08:52:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=334754"},"modified":"2025-07-26T19:54:02","modified_gmt":"2025-07-26T18:54:02","slug":"irans-nuclear-program-can-be-rebuilt-only-regime-change-can-guarantee-peace-says-former-german-intelligence-official","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/nuclear\/irans-nuclear-program-can-be-rebuilt-only-regime-change-can-guarantee-peace-says-former-german-intelligence-official\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Nuclear Program Can Be Rebuilt\u2014Only Regime Change Can Guarantee Peace, Says Former German Intelligence Official"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_334757\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-334757\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-334757 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Dr.-Rudolf-Adam\u2014former-Vice-President-of-Germanys-Federal-Intelligence-Service.jpg\" alt=\"Dr. Rudolf Adam, former Vice President of Germany\u2019s Federal Intelligence Service\" width=\"1000\" height=\"561\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Dr.-Rudolf-Adam\u2014former-Vice-President-of-Germanys-Federal-Intelligence-Service.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Dr.-Rudolf-Adam\u2014former-Vice-President-of-Germanys-Federal-Intelligence-Service-300x168.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Dr.-Rudolf-Adam\u2014former-Vice-President-of-Germanys-Federal-Intelligence-Service-768x431.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Dr.-Rudolf-Adam\u2014former-Vice-President-of-Germanys-Federal-Intelligence-Service-749x420.jpg 749w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Dr.-Rudolf-Adam\u2014former-Vice-President-of-Germanys-Federal-Intelligence-Service-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Dr.-Rudolf-Adam\u2014former-Vice-President-of-Germanys-Federal-Intelligence-Service-696x390.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-334757\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Dr. Rudolf Adam, former Vice President of Germany\u2019s Federal Intelligence Service, speaks at a Berlin conference on July 25, 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"128\" data-end=\"817\">At <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-resistance\/berlin-conference-urges-activation-of-snapback-sanctions-amid-rising-threat-from-tehran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a\u202fconference in Berlin<\/a> on July 24, 2025, Dr. Rudolf Adam \u2014 former Vice President of Germany\u2019s intelligence service and ex-President of the Federal Academy for Security Policy \u2014 warned that despite recent strikes on its nuclear facilities, the regime retains the expertise and determination to rebuild its program within a few short years. He argued that only regime change from within, led by the Iranian people, can bring lasting peace and end Tehran\u2019s support for terrorism.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"604\" data-end=\"1126\">Dr. Adam traced the failure of past sanctions and agreements\u2014like the JCPOA\u2014back to a lack of enforcement and the regime\u2019s strategic duplicity. He emphasized that Tehran\u2019s nuclear ambitions are not driven by national pride but by a desperate need for regime survival. He also warned against external regime-change efforts, insisting that lasting change in Iran must come from within\u2014led by a self-confident, capable Iranian populace.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1128\" data-end=\"1399\">Praising the NCRI and its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.maryam-rajavi.com\/en\/viewpoints\/plan-for-future-of-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ten-Point Plan<\/a>, Adam said it presents a serious political alternative and urged Western policymakers to move beyond symbolic sanctions. \u201cOnly regime change,\u201d he concluded, \u201ccan end Iran\u2019s support for terrorism and restore dignity to its people.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1401\" data-end=\"1446\"><strong><em data-start=\"1401\" data-end=\"1446\">A translated version of the speech follows.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Berlin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Berlin<\/a> Conference: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> \u2019s Nuclear Program \u2013 Snapback, E3 Strategy<br \/>July 24, 11:30 a.m.<br \/>Speakers include Franz J. Jung, former German Minister of Defense, Robert Joseph, former U.S. Under Secretary for Arms Control and International\u00a0Security<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mTkAgbN8OA\">https:\/\/t.co\/mTkAgbN8OA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1947998217582387674?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"453\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"453\">Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends from Iran,<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"453\">It is difficult for me to add much after the powerful statement by Ambassador Joseph, because I fully agree with the two core messages of his presentation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"286\" data-end=\"453\">First, we must strengthen the Iranian people in their confidence and self-determination.<br data-start=\"374\" data-end=\"377\" \/>Second, the threat posed by Iran extends far beyond its nuclear ambitions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"455\" data-end=\"562\">Still, let me offer a few thoughts that may complement and clarify Ambassador Joseph\u2019s impressive appeal.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"564\" data-end=\"865\">The U.S. and Israeli attacks last month inflicted serious damage on Iran\u2019s nuclear program. Several dozen senior figures from the military and political ranks were killed. The centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow were severely damaged. The laboratory at the Isfahan research center is largely destroyed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"867\" data-end=\"1083\">The regime is more weakened than it has been in a long time. Nevertheless, there is no reason to celebrate. What is destroyed can be rebuilt. The killed experts and leaders have already been replaced by successors.\u00a0You cannot bomb knowledge out of people\u2019s heads. Think of our own country 70 or 80 years ago\u2014Germany was in ruins, and within 15 years, everything was rebuilt, and we had the economic miracle.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1281\" data-end=\"1429\">There is no doubt that with the necessary financial means and political will, Iran\u2019s enrichment program could be resumed within two to five years.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1431\" data-end=\"1778\">The difference from 2015, when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was adopted, lies in two major geopolitical changes.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1431\" data-end=\"1778\">First, under Trump in 2018, the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the agreement. And without U.S. engagement\u2014without binding international legal involvement\u2014it makes no sense for Iran to submit to such commitments.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1780\" data-end=\"2103\">The second change is perhaps even more strategic: Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine and its unconditional support from North Korea. North Korea has long maintained close ties with Tehran and now appears willing to support Iran\u2019s program with all its own means. Russia tolerates this. A new geopolitical triangle is emerging:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2105\" data-end=\"2316\">Russia needs the support of North Korea and Iran for its war against Ukraine. In exchange, North Korea is allowed to back Iran\u2019s nuclear efforts and receives desperately needed oil and gas shipments in return.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2318\" data-end=\"2438\">As for the snapback mechanism\u2014it may be necessary, and possibly even effective. But I question its political efficacy.\u00a0So far, political sanctions have not proven truly essential anywhere\u2014neither against Moscow, nor against Pyongyang, nor ultimately against Tehran.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"de\" dir=\"ltr\">Konferenz: Irans Atomprogramm \u2013 Snapback,<br \/>E3-Strategie<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Berlin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Berlin<\/a> &#8211; 24. Jul \u2013 11:30 h<br \/>Am Vortag des E3-Treffens mit Vertretern Irans in Istanbul<br \/>Franz J. Jung, Bundesverteidigungsminister a.D.<br \/>Robert Joseph, ehem. US-Unterstaatssekret\u00e4r f. R\u00fcstungskontrolle<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fbTmuJNtDw\">https:\/\/t.co\/fbTmuJNtDw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Javad Dabiran (@JavadDabiran) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JavadDabiran\/status\/1947962446229942491?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 23, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2440\" data-end=\"2752\">It would be naive to expect that tighter sanctions alone would fundamentally change Tehran\u2019s policy, as long as the leadership and its ambitions remain the same.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2754\" data-end=\"2976\">On the contrary, after the recent attacks, that leadership will do everything it can to acquire deployable nuclear weapons as quickly as possible\u2014because it sees them as the only effective insurance for its own survival.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2978\" data-end=\"3320\">North Korea and Russia show that only nuclear weapons can secure the continuity of such regimes. When Pakistan advanced its nuclear weapons program 50 years ago, then-President Zulfikar Ali Bhutto said\u2014and I quote, in German, as I don&#8217;t know how it sounds in Urdu\u2014\u201cWe will eat grass, we will starve, but we will have our own atomic bomb.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3322\" data-end=\"3672\">I suspect similar rhetoric is being used in Tehran today. Iran stands at a historic crossroads.<br data-start=\"3417\" data-end=\"3420\" \/>The current regime may pretend to give up its nuclear ambitions\u2014which it has always denied\u2014but secretly continue its program. Or it could take a credible, definitive step by replacing the current regime with a new constitution and a new government.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3674\" data-end=\"3944\">Accordingly, the West has three options: It can continue relying on agreements and contractual sanctions\u2014that\u2019s the snapback mechanism in JCPOA articles 11 and 12. But let me remind you: similar sanctions against Moscow and Pyongyang have proven largely ineffective.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3946\" data-end=\"4106\">Moreover, even if the E3 now trigger that mechanism, I strongly doubt that Russia or North Korea will comply with any Security Council resolution or document.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4108\" data-end=\"4362\">Such an approach may increase pressure in the short term\u2014but it cannot guarantee long-term security. The financial means are there. The know-how remains available. The political determination\u2014especially after last month\u2019s attacks\u2014is stronger than ever.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4364\" data-end=\"4542\">The three core requirements for building nuclear weapons remain in place. Ignoring that is naive. All conceivable sanctions might slow or hinder such a program\u2014but not stop it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4544\" data-end=\"4683\">Trusting the current regime in Tehran and expecting it to honor its agreements sincerely contradicts all experience of the past 30 years.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Dr. Rudolf Adam: The West must abandon illusions of reform. Only a new secular, democratic government in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> can bring peace. The Ten-Point Plan by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Maryam_Rajavi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Maryam_Rajavi<\/a> is a blueprint for real change.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7IKiDF9l4I\">https:\/\/t.co\/7IKiDF9l4I<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1948361855673458744?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4685\" data-end=\"4831\">That leaves the final path. It is the riskiest\u2014yet the only one that could have lasting impact: A new regime and a new constitution in Tehran.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4833\" data-end=\"5048\">Such an approach cannot mean a return to the past. It can\u2019t be a Shah or monarchy. It can\u2019t be a new mullah regime or a new oligarchy. It must be a form of government supported by a clear majority of the people.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5050\" data-end=\"5260\">And for that, as I said at the beginning, the Iranian people must develop self-confidence and trust in their own abilities. They must no longer allow themselves to be dictated to by an authoritarian regime.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5262\" data-end=\"5438\">Such a regime change cannot come from outside. Our experiences in Iraq, Libya, and even Kosovo should serve as a warning. The change must come from within to be legitimate.\u00a0An Islamic theocracy could be replaced by a liberal, secular constitution\u2014one based on tolerance and freedom, though possibly still inspired in key ways by Islam.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5606\" data-end=\"5776\">Iran, a country so richly blessed in culture and intellect, deserves living conditions in which its creative talent and cultural wealth can flourish freely and proudly.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5778\" data-end=\"6005\">Only a regime change can guarantee that Iran will end its support for terrorist groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. Only a new government can put an end to the daily oppression and killing of political opponents.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6007\" data-end=\"6224\">The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) presents itself as a political alternative to the current situation in Iran. This means that a force is ready to fill the power vacuum if the current regime falls.\u00a0The NCRI\u2019s Ten-Point Plan lays out a compelling alternative to the existing regime\u2014and it is time to turn those words into action.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6360\" data-end=\"6370\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Thank you.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At a&#8239;conference in Berlin on July 24, 2025, Dr. Rudolf Adam &mdash; former Vice President of Germany&rsquo;s intelligence service and ex-President of the Federal Academy for Security Policy &mdash; warned [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":334757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[17],"tags":[1175],"class_list":{"0":"post-334754","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nuclear","8":"tag-iran-nuclear"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Nuclear Program Can Be Rebuilt\u2014Only Regime Change Can Guarantee Peace, Says Former German Intelligence Official - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"At a\u202fconference in Berlin on July 24, 2025, Dr. Rudolf Adam \u2014 former Vice President of Germany\u2019s intelligence service and ex-President of the Federal\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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