{"id":335546,"date":"2025-08-13T12:04:00","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T11:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=335546"},"modified":"2025-08-13T12:04:00","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T11:04:00","slug":"tehrans-strategic-setback-in-the-caucasus-deepens-internal-rifts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/tehrans-strategic-setback-in-the-caucasus-deepens-internal-rifts\/","title":{"rendered":"Tehran\u2019s Strategic Setback in the Caucasus Deepens Internal Rifts"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_335547\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-335547\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-335547 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Nourduz-Border-Terminal-Irans-main-crossing-with-Armenia-28082021.jpg\" alt=\"Nourduz border terminal, Iran\u2019s main crossing with Armenia, August 28, 2021\" width=\"1000\" height=\"564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Nourduz-Border-Terminal-Irans-main-crossing-with-Armenia-28082021.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Nourduz-Border-Terminal-Irans-main-crossing-with-Armenia-28082021-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Nourduz-Border-Terminal-Irans-main-crossing-with-Armenia-28082021-768x433.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Nourduz-Border-Terminal-Irans-main-crossing-with-Armenia-28082021-745x420.jpg 745w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Nourduz-Border-Terminal-Irans-main-crossing-with-Armenia-28082021-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Nourduz-Border-Terminal-Irans-main-crossing-with-Armenia-28082021-696x393.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-335547\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Nourduz border terminal, Iran\u2019s main crossing with Armenia, August 28, 2021<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Two-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The peace agreement signed in Washington on August 8, 2025, between Armenia and Azerbaijan\u2014establishing the so-called Zangezur Corridor\u2014has triggered an unusually sharp and divided response in Tehran. The reactions reveal a regime already weakened by a string of strategic setbacks in recent months, from the erosion of Hezbollah\u2019s deterrence in Lebanon to shrinking influence in Syria and mounting pressure on its militias in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The agreement, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2025\/08\/07\/us-deal-armenia-azerbaijan-00499285\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mediated by the United States<\/a> but driven by Yerevan and Baku\u2019s own calculations, includes a 99-year lease of a strategic transit route through southern Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave and Turkey. For Iran, the consequences are immediate and severe: the corridor would cut its 44-kilometer border with Armenia, deprive Tehran of a vital transit link to Europe independent of Ankara and Baku, and cement a geopolitical alignment in the South Caucasus that sidelines the clerical dictatorship.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regime\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1084254\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Foreign Ministry issued<\/a> a guarded statement, superficially welcoming peace in principle but warning that any foreign involvement \u201cin the vicinity of shared borders\u201d could undermine regional stability. It stressed that new transport routes must respect \u201cmutual interests, national sovereignty, and territorial integrity\u201d and proceed \u201cwithout external interference.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> News: Resignation of Cleric Highlights Regime\u2019s Weakness Amid Tensions with <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Azerbaijan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Azerbaijan<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mT2H1ksXVe\">https:\/\/t.co\/mT2H1ksXVe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1884289082853056877?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 28, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">However, figures close to the regime\u2019s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei adopted a far more alarmed tone. Ali Akbar Velayati, his senior foreign policy adviser, <a href=\"https:\/\/negaheiraniannews.ir\/%D8%A7%D8%B8%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DA%A9%D8%A8%D8%B1-%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B7%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%DA%A9%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B2%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%88-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%B0%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%86\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">declared<\/a>: \u201cIs the South Caucasus an unclaimed region for Trump to rent? This passage will not become a Trump-owned corridor, but a graveyard for his mercenaries.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The daily Kayhan, directly controlled by Khamenei\u2019s office, warned that the Zangezur route \u201ccould become a highway for military and intelligence penetration\u201d if allowed to proceed. In an unusually blunt message to Moscow, <a href=\"https:\/\/kayhan.ir\/fa\/news\/316185\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">it wrote<\/a>: \u201cWhether with Russia or without it, the Islamic Republic will deliver a decisive, deterrent response\u2026 Any complacency or delay in the Caucasus will result in a geopolitical crisis for Russia even more severe than NATO\u2019s presence in Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is a rare public rebuke of Russia, underscoring Tehran\u2019s unease as Moscow signals acceptance of the deal. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has called the draft agreement \u201cpositive,\u201d highlighting another gap between Tehran\u2019s expectations and its partners\u2019 priorities.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> News: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Azerbaijan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Azerbaijan<\/a>&#39;s President Calls for Accountability Following Iranian Eulogist\u2019s Insult<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8Bz0otpT5E\">https:\/\/t.co\/8Bz0otpT5E<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1876897612734791803?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Ali Bagheri Kani, a senior member of Iran\u2019s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tabnak.ir\/fa\/news\/1321937\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stated<\/a>: \u201cThe Islamic Republic will not easily let go of the Zangezur issue.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regime\u2019s president Masoud Pezeshkian, however, <a href=\"https:\/\/avash.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-72\/33775-%D8%A7%DA%AF%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%AA%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%81-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B4%DB%8C%D9%85-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%87%DB%8C%DA%86-%DA%A9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%A7-%D8%B1%D8%AD%D9%85-%D9%86%D9%85%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">appeared more concerned<\/a> with managing internal divisions than confronting external threats, telling political rivals: \u201cWe must be united so they cannot bring us down. If we are divided, they will spare none of us.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The divergence between these contradicting approaches reflects a leadership fractured on both policy and priorities. The Zangezur issue has become a proxy for deeper anxieties over the regime\u2019s waning regional leverage.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> News in Brief<br \/>The official IRNA news agency quoted an informed source that the regime&#39;s cultural attach\u00e9 in Baku was expelled from <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Azerbaijan?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Azerbaijan<\/a> and its mission was closed down.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rc22s4ytfz\">https:\/\/t.co\/rc22s4ytfz<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XavxRMXrat\">pic.twitter.com\/XavxRMXrat<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1664596953370443777?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 2, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Losing the Armenia border would not only weaken Tehran\u2019s economic connectivity but also erode its strategic depth. With influence already diminished in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, Tehran faces the prospect of a new geopolitical reality in which its northern flank is effectively sealed off by U.S.-aligned infrastructure. The corridor would tighten the arc of states cooperating to contain Iran\u2019s reach, further <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/iranian-regime-escalates-regional-posturing-and-crackdowns-to-mask-strategic-weakness\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">demoralizing its regional networks<\/a> and emboldening domestic opposition.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As Kayhan warned, \u201cthis betrayal must not go unanswered.\u201d Yet Tehran\u2019s conflicting signals\u2014diplomatic restraint from one faction, rhetorical escalation from another\u2014suggest that the regime has no unified plan to reverse its losses. The Zangezur corridor, once operational, may stand as the latest and visible marker of a regime in strategic retreat.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two-minute read The peace agreement signed in Washington on August 8, 2025, between Armenia and Azerbaijan&mdash;establishing the so-called Zangezur Corridor&mdash;has triggered an unusually sharp and divided response in Tehran. The [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":335547,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[5479],"class_list":{"0":"post-335546","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-iran-policy"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Tehran\u2019s Strategic Setback in the Caucasus Deepens Internal Rifts - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Two-minute read The peace agreement signed in Washington on August 8, 2025, between Armenia and Azerbaijan\u2014establishing the so-called Zangezur\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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