{"id":336213,"date":"2025-08-30T14:39:58","date_gmt":"2025-08-30T13:39:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=336213"},"modified":"2025-09-21T21:23:30","modified_gmt":"2025-09-21T20:23:30","slug":"irans-leadership-faces-growing-fears-of-unrest-amid-snapback-sanctions-and-internal-divisions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iranian-regime-infighting\/irans-leadership-faces-growing-fears-of-unrest-amid-snapback-sanctions-and-internal-divisions\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Leadership Faces Growing Fears of Unrest Amid Snapback Sanctions and Internal Divisions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-237239\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-social-unrest.jpg\" alt=\"iran-social-unrest\" width=\"1000\" height=\"550\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-social-unrest.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-social-unrest-300x165.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-social-unrest-768x422.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-social-unrest-150x83.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/iran-social-unrest-696x383.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Following the activation of the UN snapback mechanism by France, Germany, and the UK, Iran\u2019s ruling establishment is confronting one of its most precarious moments in recent years. Officials are grappling simultaneously with severe economic threats, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/khamenei-pulls-strings-in-coordinated-crackdown-as-irans-revisionist-faction-refuses-to-yield\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deepening factional rifts<\/a>, and growing concerns over organized opposition activity inside and outside the country \u2014 particularly linked to the People\u2019s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI\/MEK).<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Economic Fallout Driving Regime Anxiety<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The reactivation of UN sanctions threatens to intensify Iran\u2019s economic crisis, which officials themselves warn could spiral beyond control:<\/p>\n<p>Hossein Salahvarzi, former head of the regime\u2019s Chamber of Commerce, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HSelahvarzi\/status\/1960447633815749098\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">estimated<\/a> on August 26 that snapback measures could cut petrochemical exports by 5\u20138 million ton, wipe out $3\u20135 billion in foreign currency revenue, and Impact banking, transport, agriculture, and foreign investment across the board.<\/p>\n<p>A leaked Chamber of Commerce report warned that the return of sanctions could push inflation above 90% and drive the rial towards unprecedented lows.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The report caused such alarm that IRGC intelligence forces <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/tehran-in-damage-control-mode-after-snapback-sanctions-triggered-economic-fears-soar\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">interrogated members<\/a> of the Chamber\u2019s International Affairs unit and pressured the organization to retract its findings. Analysts view this intervention as a sign the authorities are in damage-control mode, aiming to prevent public panic over the looming economic shock.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Tehran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Tehran<\/a> in Damage-Control Mode After Snapback Sanctions Triggered, Economic Fears Soar<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tet1fJqorJ\">https:\/\/t.co\/tet1fJqorJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1961711709501923440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 30, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Internal Fractures and Public Infighting<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The sanctions crisis has exposed sharp divisions within the clerical establishment and between rival power centers:<\/p>\n<p>Lawmakers aligned with extremist factions are demanding <a href=\"https:\/\/www.entekhab.ir\/fa\/news\/882232\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">aggressive retaliation<\/a>, including a three-pronged parliamentary bill proposing, withdrawal from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and halting cooperation with the IAEA, ending all negotiations with Western powers, and accelerating Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n<p>Inside the government, officials linked to the regime&#8217;s President Masoud Pezeshkian are quietly implementing security measures \u2014 including empowering provincial governors and reviving mosque-driven <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404060402319\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&#8220;neighborhood management&#8221;<\/a> systems \u2014 to prepare for potential unrest. Meanwhile, hardliners in parliament warn that any public debate over negotiations or sanctions could &#8220;send signals of weakness&#8221; to Western powers.<\/p>\n<p>Former intelligence officials, including <a href=\"https:\/\/www.entekhab.ir\/fa\/news\/882122\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hesamoddin Ashna, admit<\/a> that no faction wants responsibility for the sanctions crisis \u2014 while openly blaming each other for strategic miscalculations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The growing \u201cwar of statements\u201d reflects a breakdown of cohesion at the top, raising doubts about the regime\u2019s ability to manage simultaneous diplomatic, economic, and domestic challenges.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Senior <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Regime Insider Faces Prosecution After Comments Seen as Undermining Morale Amid Escalating Crises<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jVfljdqUSN\">https:\/\/t.co\/jVfljdqUSN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1961426645102780881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Shadow of the PMOI<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Amid these pressures, Iranian officials continue to highlight the PMOI as a critical security concern, linking potential unrest to the group\u2019s influence:<\/p>\n<p>Mansour Haghighatpour, a former senior MP and member of the Supreme National Security Council, <a href=\"https:\/\/hammihanonline.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-18\/47186-%D8%AD%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%82%D8%AA-%D9%BE%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%A2%D9%86%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D9%87-%D8%B4%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D9%87%D9%86%D8%AF-%D9%85%D8%B4%DA%A9%D9%88%DA%A9-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">admitted that despite<\/a> four decades of crackdowns, the PMOI\u2019s underground network remains largely intact, saying: \u201cThe PMOI only lost three or four operatives; the rest stayed safe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Friday Prayer Leader Reza Nouri in Bojnourd warned critics and so-called reformists against \u201chelping the enemy,\u201d stating: \u201cDo not fill the enemy\u2019s magazine. Do not pour water into the PMOI\u2019s mill.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Alireza Salimi, a member of parliament\u2019s presidium, made a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.imam-khomeini.ir\/fa\/n165045\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rare acknowledgment<\/a> that in the early years of the revolution, children of senior clerics joined the PMOI \u2014 and that prominent figures like Mohammad Ghilani and Ahmad Jannati even signed their own sons\u2019 execution orders to demonstrate loyalty.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These statements indicate persistent concerns over the PMOI\u2019s ideological reach and its potential to mobilize disaffected segments of society, particularly amid worsening economic conditions.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Sophisticated Playbook to Circumvent Global Sanctions<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/s3mKfqR3kj\">https:\/\/t.co\/s3mKfqR3kj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1961410278018416881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tightening Security and Preemptive Crackdowns<\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"428\" data-end=\"662\">Authorities are responding with escalating security measures, reviving neighborhood-based surveillance programs and mosque-driven mobilization plans reminiscent of the tactics used during the 1980s uprisings.<\/p>\n<p>A controversial ruling by the Supreme Court <a href=\"https:\/\/dadafarin.com\/news\/article\/yV_maAtLam8-yASq2odr2T..yO11RVX7NVtgSAX-RG9bRG21aLyASGaB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">grants security forces legal immunity<\/a> for \u201caccidental\u201d shootings, effectively shielding them from prosecution even if civilians are killed.<\/p>\n<p>Provinces have been ordered to prepare for \u201csignificant unrest,\u201d with expanded powers granted to local governors to manage crisis response.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These steps suggest that the regime expects heightened protests and is preparing for a scenario where economic hardship and political discontent converge.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Inside the government, officials linked to the regime&#8217;s President Masoud Pezeshkian are taking quiet but deliberate steps to prepare for potential unrest. Majid Ansari, Pezeshkian\u2019s deputy for legal affairs, confirmed that provincial governors have been granted expanded powers and urged them to &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404060603274\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prepare for a major uprising<\/a>.&#8221; He revealed that this process began two months ago and that additional emergency measures would soon be implemented. The move signals growing concern within the administration that the economic shock of renewed UN sanctions could trigger widespread instability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the words of one senior adviser to the regime, \u201cIran is entering uncharted territory.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read Following the activation of the UN snapback mechanism by France, Germany, and the UK, Iran&rsquo;s ruling establishment is confronting one of its most precarious moments in recent years. [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":237239,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,45,5450],"tags":[197,5482],"class_list":{"0":"post-336213","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-resistance","8":"category-news","9":"category-iranian-regime-infighting","10":"tag-mek-iran","11":"tag-iranian-regime-infighting"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Leadership Faces Growing Fears of Unrest Amid Snapback Sanctions and Internal Divisions - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read Following the activation of the UN snapback mechanism by France, Germany, and the UK, Iran\u2019s ruling establishment is confronting one of\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" 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