{"id":336292,"date":"2025-09-01T19:29:20","date_gmt":"2025-09-01T18:29:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=336292"},"modified":"2025-09-01T19:29:20","modified_gmt":"2025-09-01T18:29:20","slug":"irans-regime-in-crisis-escalating-repression-internal-rifts-and-signs-of-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/irans-regime-in-crisis-escalating-repression-internal-rifts-and-signs-of-collapse\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Regime in Crisis: Escalating Repression, Internal Rifts, and Signs of Collapse"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_333664\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-333664\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-333664\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/iran-semnan-basij-parade-25112020.jpg\" alt=\"Paramilitary Basij forces parade through the streets of Semnan, central Iran, in a public show of force aimed at intimidation \u2014 November 2020\" width=\"1000\" height=\"562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/iran-semnan-basij-parade-25112020.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/iran-semnan-basij-parade-25112020-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/iran-semnan-basij-parade-25112020-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/iran-semnan-basij-parade-25112020-747x420.jpg 747w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/iran-semnan-basij-parade-25112020-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/iran-semnan-basij-parade-25112020-696x391.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-333664\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Paramilitary Basij forces parade through the streets of Semnan, central Iran, in a public show of force aimed at intimidation \u2014 November 2020<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In recent months, the instability of Iran\u2019s clerical regime has become increasingly obvious, especially in the aftermath of the 12-Day War. Officials who once projected strength now betray fear through their words and actions. In the post-war period, they speak of \u201csolidarity with the people,\u201d yet in practice they have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/en\/international\/article\/2025\/07\/02\/weakened-by-war-with-israel-the-iranian-regime-ramps-up-repression_6742937_4.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">intensified repression<\/a> and executions, fearing renewed protests.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Although regime media constantly repeat the theme of \u201csolidarity,\u201d internal rivalries are worsening. Some factions have gone as far as calling for the impeachment of regime president Masoud Pezeshkian. On August 28, the regime\u2019s news network reported that parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hamshahrionline.ir\/news\/974429\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ghalibaf declared<\/a>: <em>\u201c<\/em>The economy, security, and politics must be handed over to the people!\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">He continued: \u201cWe must run the country with the help of the people. We have removed the people from running the country. This is our problem. Our economy is 80 percent government-run, and the other part is semi-private, and in short, we waste tens of billions of dollars a year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Such remarks\u2014directly contradicting the regime\u2019s entire structure\u2014reflect the deep threat that has forced Ghalibaf to voice them. Behind his words lies the growing pressure from the very people he claims to speak for.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Faces Mounting Crisis: Snapback Mechanism Threats, Nationwide Military Alert, and Fear of Uprising<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RM2d5Gbltz\">https:\/\/t.co\/RM2d5Gbltz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1960451502885232991?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Executions as a Tool of Survival<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regime\u2019s fear is further exposed in its mass executions. On August 29, 2025, Reuters <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/large-rise-number-people-executed-iran-says-un-2025-08-29\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reported<\/a>: \u201cIranian authorities have executed at least 841 people so far this year, marking a major increase, the United Nations human rights office said on Friday. One hundred people were executed in July, more than double the number of people executed in July of last year, according to the Office for the High Commissioner of Human Rights.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">UN spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani told reporters in Geneva: \u201cThe high number of executions indicates a systematic pattern of using death penalty as a tool of state intimidation and repression of any dissent.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">She added: \u201cOHCHR had observed a disproportionate targeting of ethnic minorities and migrants on death row. Iran has ignored multiple calls to join the worldwide movement towards the abolition of the death penalty.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Officials Warn of \u201cLibya Scenario\u201d Amid Deepening Fear of Uprising and Escalating Crackdowns<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vLWWYwIlap\">https:\/\/t.co\/vLWWYwIlap<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1929243548940968208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to OHCHR, \u201cEleven people are currently facing imminent execution, six of whom are charged with \u2018armed rebellion,\u2019 and five others face the death penalty in relation to their participation in the 2022 protests.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk has urged Tehran to suspend the death penalty, saying it should be seen as \u201ca step towards completely abolishing the use of capital punishment.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On August 29, the UN Human Rights <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ohchr.org\/en\/press-briefing-notes\/2025\/08\/iran-call-halt-increasing-executions-and-impose-moratorium-death\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">website<\/a> again quoted Shamdasani: \u201cIn July alone, Iranian authorities executed 110 individuals. This represents more than double the number of people executed in July of last year and follows a major increase in executions during the first half of 2025. The high number of executions indicates a systematic pattern of using death penalty as a tool of State intimidation, with disproportionate targeting of ethnic minorities and migrants. Currently facing imminent execution are 11 individuals; six of them charged with \u2018armed rebellion\u2019 due to their alleged membership of the Mojahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) group, and five in relation to their participation in the 2022 protests. On 16 August 2025, the Supreme Court confirmed the death sentence against workers&#8217; rights activist Sharifeh Mohammadi.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Officials Voice Deep Fear Over Growing Social Tensions and Possibility of Uprising<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NYjgVFrYGf\">https:\/\/t.co\/NYjgVFrYGf<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1914014566801187153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Parallels with the Final Days of the Shah<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">History is repeating itself. In late August and early September 1978, debates in the Shah regime\u2019s parliament over the oppression of the people had reached such a point that people like Mohsen &#8220;Pendar&#8221; Pezeshkpour and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/archive\/politics\/1978\/09\/14\/opposition-legislator-accuses-shah-of-hiding-true-tehran-violence-toll\/c3798aee-329e-48af-9dae-67322607348c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ahmad Bani Ahmad appeared<\/a> to be in opposition to the monarchical system. However, the reality was that the monarchy had reached its final stage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The same pattern is unfolding today. Just as some of the Shah\u2019s loyalists pretended to oppose his system in its last months, regime insiders like Ghalibaf now voice empty criticisms of the clerical establishment. These remarks do not reflect reform\u2014they are confessions of a regime nearing its collapse.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Admissions of Impending Uprising<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Majid Ansari, the legal deputy of the regime\u2019s president, recently admitted the depth of the threat, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iranian-regime-infighting\/irans-leadership-faces-growing-fears-of-unrest-amid-snapback-sanctions-and-internal-divisions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">warning<\/a>: \u201cThe governors should be prepared for a major uprising.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Such statements are not routine; they are admissions of fear. They underscore the regime\u2019s awareness that unrest is looming and that repression can no longer contain it.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran&#39;s regime responded to protests for water in Sabzevar with brutal force. Iran&#39;s rebellious youth responded by targeting regime centers tasked with repression and looting the people&#39;s wealth.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranProtests?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranProtests<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UMDyeKVtLZ\">pic.twitter.com\/UMDyeKVtLZ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; People&#39;s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI\/MEK) (@Mojahedineng) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mojahedineng\/status\/1948443726793019458?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">International Pressure and the People\u2019s Role<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, European countries have activated the \u201csnapback mechanism\u201d of the 2015 nuclear deal, intensifying the regime\u2019s international isolation. This adds to Tehran\u2019s woes, but the decisive factor remains the Iranian people.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The clerical rulers are losing every tool of survival. Their increasing executions, hollow speeches, and warnings of uprisings are not signs of strength but unmistakable signals of weakness. Just as in 1978, when the Shah\u2019s regime collapsed despite its brutality, the mullahs\u2019 regime has entered its final phase.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The fate of Iran will not be determined by factional maneuvers or international negotiations, but by the people\u2019s uprising and their organized resistance.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read In recent months, the instability of Iran&rsquo;s clerical regime has become increasingly obvious, especially in the aftermath of the 12-Day War. Officials who once projected strength now betray [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":333664,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45],"tags":[5418],"class_list":{"0":"post-336292","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-iran-news-now"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Regime in Crisis: Escalating Repression, Internal Rifts, and Signs of Collapse - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read In recent months, the instability of Iran\u2019s clerical regime has become increasingly obvious, especially in the aftermath of the 12-Day Iran\u2019s regime faces its most unstable phase since the 12-Day War. 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