{"id":337881,"date":"2025-10-05T15:42:31","date_gmt":"2025-10-05T14:42:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=337881"},"modified":"2025-10-05T15:42:31","modified_gmt":"2025-10-05T14:42:31","slug":"irans-command-economics-corruption-and-the-costs-of-isolation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-command-economics-corruption-and-the-costs-of-isolation\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Command Economics, Corruption and the Costs of Isolation"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_310042\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-310042\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-310042 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iran-economic-bankrupcy-crowd-bank-1.jpg\" alt=\"File photo: A crowd gathers outside a local money exchange shop amid mounting currency instability and the collapse of the Iranian rial\" width=\"1000\" height=\"567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iran-economic-bankrupcy-crowd-bank-1.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iran-economic-bankrupcy-crowd-bank-1-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iran-economic-bankrupcy-crowd-bank-1-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iran-economic-bankrupcy-crowd-bank-1-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/iran-economic-bankrupcy-crowd-bank-1-696x395.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-310042\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">File photo: A crowd gathers outside a local money exchange shop amid mounting currency instability and the collapse of the Iranian rial<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Four-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Iran\u2019s economy is not just slowing; it is being de-tooled by decree. As international isolation deepens after UN snapback, the state is answering market signals with administrative commands\u2014price caps, currency suppression, forced \u201cunity,\u201d and politically convenient showpieces like zero-removal from the currency. The result is a feedback loop of scarcity, rent-seeking, and public distrust that weakens both firms and households.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">When orders replace prices<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A <a href=\"https:\/\/tejaratnews.com\/%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B9-%D8%A8%D9%86%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%9B-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%A2%D8%AB%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%82\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">business forum<\/a> in late September 2025 (\u201cBarriers to Enterprise in Iran\u2019s Economy\u201d) put a name to what firms have lived for years: the \u201cprice-control trap.\u201d Economist Mousa Ghaninejad argued the policy rests on a basic misunderstanding: \u201cIf policymakers understood how a market works, they would never make this mistake; and if they do understand and still continue, that is demagoguery.\u201d He warned that state dictates have even blocked producers from lowering prices, turning a tool claimed to fight inflation into a mechanism that destroys production and breeds rent. Prices, he noted, are information; when the government replaces them with orders, it breaks the economy\u2019s compass.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">From the technology sector, Hesam Armandehi (founder of Divar\u2014an Iran-wide online classifieds platform similar to Craiglist) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoomit.ir\/tech-iran\/448968-price-control-policy-iran-economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">described how start-ups<\/a> lost a decade to security-state rulemaking: \u201cWhile the world lets markets set prices, in Iran even online advertising gets a directive that your profit must not exceed 15 percent.\u201d The contrast he drew was stark: peers in the United Arab Emirates became billion-dollar firms, while Iranian founders moved capital and talent abroad to escape a \u201csecurity-minded, illogical state.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Another state-affiliated economist, <a href=\"https:\/\/hammihanonline.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-5\/51088-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D9%BE%D8%B1%D9%88%DA%98%D9%87-%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%A8-%DB%8C%D8%A7-%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%AB-%D8%AC%D9%87%D9%84-%DA%AF%D9%81%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B3%DB%8C-%D8%BA%D9%86%DB%8C-%D9%86%DA%98%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C-%D9%85%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A2%D8%B1%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%AA-%DA%AF%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ali Mirzakhani widened<\/a> the lens to currency policy: \u201cWhen the state suppresses the exchange rate to hold down import prices, it hits domestic production and sets up the next inflation jump.\u201d Echoing mainstream monetary theory, he underlined that Iran\u2019s inflation is fundamentally monetary, yet money printing and ad-hoc controls continue\u2014delivering chronic stagflation, not relief.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A Nation on the Brink: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Economy Nears Total Breakdown<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vGWSKMuzub\">https:\/\/t.co\/vGWSKMuzub<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1931982986250973468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Data points the system cannot explain away<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The macro picture is deteriorating, and officials close to power are saying so. On October 4, 2025, policy veteran <a href=\"https:\/\/tejaratnews.com\/%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B5%DB%8C%D9%87%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%85%D9%87%D9%85-%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%85%D9%88%D9%85%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%AC%D9%87\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Farshad Momeni called<\/a> the draft 2026 budget \u201cregrettable and shameful,\u201d warning it would deepen poverty rather than ease it. He said the poor swelled from under 10 million to more than 25 million in a decade, with over 7 million in severe or near-famine conditions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Trade and industry coverage reached the same conclusion from another angle. On September 21, 2025, the business daily <a href=\"https:\/\/vista.ir\/n\/smtnews-k75bk\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sanat-Maadan-Tejarat (SMT) wrote<\/a> that \u201call the engines of growth\u201d\u2014a sound business environment, credible economic governance, technology access, and finance\u2014\u201care not running.\u201d In its view, the government\u2019s 8 percent growth target is unattainable without structural repairs, from energy balance to banking reform and policy-risk reduction. The Iran Chamber of Commerce added a stress test in late August 2025: in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-regime-is-fueling-foreign-proxies-while-the-people-face-economic-collapse\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">its downside scenario<\/a>, the dollar jumps to 165,000 tomans and inflation surges to 90 percent, with negative growth in all scenarios. Power rationing is already biting: the chamber warned that steel output could fall 33 percent this year due to electricity cuts.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>&#39;s Economy Faces Unprecedented Decline Amid Global Isolation and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Financial?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Financial<\/a> Mismanagement<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5Jaf0w1gsp\">https:\/\/t.co\/5Jaf0w1gsp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1887552838621958373?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 6, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Isolation breeds rent\u2014and scandal<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Where rules replace markets, rents replace productivity. On September 15, 2025, textile industry adviser <a href=\"https:\/\/akharinkhabar.ir\/money\/10655117\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Majid Nami said<\/a> about $1 billion in low-quality fabrics entered Iran over two years using state-subsidized foreign exchange, only to be sold at free-market rates\u2014a pure arbitrage from policy to pocket. The question he posed\u2014who captured the rent?\u2014points back to politically connected networks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the household level, the harm reads like a social-policy autopsy. On September 20, 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1095728\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Asr-e Iran<\/em> detailed<\/a> an approximately 1 trillion toman real-estate fraud in Pardis (Phase 8) near Tehran: hundreds of families\u2014workers, retirees, and those who sold existing homes\u2014paid 800 million to 2 billion tomans each to a firm boasting official seals, only to find no units and no titles. Arrests followed, but lawyers say seized assets won\u2019t cover losses. The case is not an outlier; it is a symptom of weak rule of law, cheap official endorsements, and a culture of impunity that thrives in opaque, state-managed markets.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Regime&#39;s Economic Warfare Creates a Multi-Front Crisis for the People<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KoEgu32dxd\">https:\/\/t.co\/KoEgu32dxd<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1943056248775258616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Cutting zeros, not problems<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On October 5, 2025, parliament again approved a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1100313\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bill to remove four zeros<\/a> from the currency and move toward the toman\u2014a plan first floated in the 1990s, drafted in 2019, passed in 2020, and bounced by the Guardian Council, which now demands nomenclature changes (e.g., \u201cqeran\u201d). Under the latest text, one new rial equals 10,000 current rials (1,000 tomans today). Even if it becomes law, the central bank gets two years to prepare and three years of parallel circulation to swap notes\u2014printing and logistics costs on top of existing cash-handling expenses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Former central bank chief <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1403100805333\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Tahmasb Mazaheri warned<\/a> in December 2024: \u201cWith current high inflation, removing four zeros will not work; at a minimum six should go.\u201d He added that without large-denomination notes, note value collapses toward the cost of printing\u2014a reminder that cosmetic reform without disinflation is a money-burner, not a confidence builder. History agrees: from Argentina and Romania to Yugoslavia and Zimbabwe, zero-removal rarely fixes fundamentals; Turkey\u2019s 2005 reset succeeded only after sustained disinflation and institutional repair.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Economic Crisis Isn\u2019t a Mystery\u2014It\u2019s the Regime\u2019s Legacy<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yTq2D6gXgt\">https:\/\/t.co\/yTq2D6gXgt<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1914300549459063198?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 21, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Snapback\u2019s multiplier effect<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">International isolation magnifies every domestic flaw. After snapback, market barometers lurched: by October 2, 2025, the free-market dollar broke 117,000 tomans, more than 1,000 tomans above the day prior; the Emami gold coin hit about 118 million tomans. In this environment, price controls and FX suppression do not calm expectations; they signal scarcity, inviting hoarding and arbitrage. Fiscal gaps widen, and officials telegraph gasoline-price hikes to claw back cash\u2014politically explosive in a society already squeezed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The state\u2019s answer has been familiar: insist on \u201cunity,\u201d denounce protests as \u201cenemy plans,\u201d and double down on administrative controls. But the week\u2019s facts argue the opposite: the more isolation rises, the more command economics leak power to insiders and middlemen, while ordinary firms and households absorb the shock.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Iran\u2019s crisis is not a mystery of sanctions alone. It is a compound of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-economy-faces-unprecedented-decline-amid-global-isolation-and-financial-mismanagement\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">isolation and interventionism<\/a>: snapback tightens the vise; decree-driven policy breaks the gears. The forum on price controls named the mechanism; poverty and output data quantify the damage; import and housing scandals expose who profits. Stripping zeros, capping profits, and fixing exchange rates are stagecraft, not strategy. Without credible anchors\u2014monetary restraint, legal predictability, market pricing, and real competition\u2014the economy will keep converting external pressure into internal instability, with ever fewer tools left to manage the fallout.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read Iran&rsquo;s economy is not just slowing; it is being de-tooled by decree. As international isolation deepens after UN snapback, the state is answering market signals with administrative commands&mdash;price [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":310042,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":{"0":"post-337881","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-iran-economy"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Command Economics, Corruption and the Costs of Isolation - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Four-minute read Iran\u2019s economy is not just slowing; it is being de-tooled by decree. 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