{"id":338143,"date":"2025-10-12T18:07:58","date_gmt":"2025-10-12T17:07:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=338143"},"modified":"2025-10-12T18:07:58","modified_gmt":"2025-10-12T17:07:58","slug":"irans-power-struggle-escalates-as-state-media-admits-setbacks-snapback-tightens-and-the-street-simmers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iranian-regime-infighting\/irans-power-struggle-escalates-as-state-media-admits-setbacks-snapback-tightens-and-the-street-simmers\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Power Struggle Escalates as State Media Admits Setbacks, Snapback Tightens, and the Street Simmers"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_330496\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-330496\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-330496 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/iran-majlis-infighting-mehdi-kuchakzadeh-december-2024-e1744574592336.jpg\" alt=\"MP Mehdi Kouchakzadeh confronts Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during a heated public session of the regime\u2019s Majlis\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/iran-majlis-infighting-mehdi-kuchakzadeh-december-2024-e1744574592336.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/iran-majlis-infighting-mehdi-kuchakzadeh-december-2024-e1744574592336-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/iran-majlis-infighting-mehdi-kuchakzadeh-december-2024-e1744574592336-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/iran-majlis-infighting-mehdi-kuchakzadeh-december-2024-e1744574592336-746x420.jpg 746w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/iran-majlis-infighting-mehdi-kuchakzadeh-december-2024-e1744574592336-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/iran-majlis-infighting-mehdi-kuchakzadeh-december-2024-e1744574592336-696x392.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-330496\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">MP Mehdi Kouchakzadeh confronts Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during a heated public session of the regime\u2019s Majlis<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"110\" data-end=\"126\"><strong><em>Four-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"264\" data-end=\"919\">As international snapback tightens, Tehran\u2019s narrative is splitting in two. One camp soothes\u2014insisting sanctions won\u2019t bite and urging calm\u2014while another, from regime media to industry insiders, now concedes strategic and economic failure. The government has quietly approved gradual gasoline price hikes\u2014a direct hit to household budgets that contradicts pre-election pledges\u2014just as state-linked figures admit food prices far above global norms and regulators formally raise chicken prices. The through-line is not policy confidence but message management: downplay to defuse panic, admit enough to shift blame, and pass costs to the street.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"957\" data-end=\"981\">Admission from within<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"983\" data-end=\"1554\">The most striking fissure came in print. <a href=\"https:\/\/jepress.ir\/13203\/1\/2551\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"1024\" data-end=\"1041\">Jomhouri Eslami<\/em> wrote<\/a> on October 12, \u201cIn reality\u2026 Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was a mistake,\u201d before acknowledging \u201cthe destruction of Gaza\u201480 percent of buildings and all infrastructure.\u201d The paper went further, arguing that \u201cSyria [has been] taken out and swallowed by the U.S. and Israel,\u201d that Israel has \u201cpenetrated south Lebanon,\u201d and that a U.S.-aligned government has emerged in Beirut. For a house organ that typically amplifies the system\u2019s line, these are not semantic quibbles; they are a public audit of strategic loss.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1556\" data-end=\"1920\">That admission matters for two reasons. First, it punctures a year of triumphalist rhetoric about \u201cresistance wins\u201d by conceding that the costs\u2014material, political, and reputational\u2014have outpaced returns. Second, it arrives precisely as snapback measures tighten, reinforcing a perception among elites that escalation has reduced options rather than expanded them.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Bravado Masks Strategic Paralysis and a Volatile Society<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3l5a20KWbV\">https:\/\/t.co\/3l5a20KWbV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1976752495734276339?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1922\" data-end=\"1951\">Friday pulpits double down<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1953\" data-end=\"2439\">If the daily sketched limits, the pulpits tried to erase them. In Karaj on October 10, Friday prayer leader Mohammad-Mehdi <a href=\"https:\/\/alborz.iqna.ir\/fa\/news\/4309867\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hamedani dismissed<\/a> Western demands outright: \u201cIran will not bargain or negotiate about its deterrent and defensive power,\u201d he said, ridiculing calls to curb missile range\u2014\u201cas short as a bow and arrow.\u201d He downplayed UN snapback\u2019s bite relative to U.S. sanctions, citing oil sales \u201cabove two million barrels a day\u201d during Ebrahim Raisi\u2019s tenure to argue resilience.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2441\" data-end=\"2893\">In Tehran the same day, Mohammad-Javad Haj-Ali <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404071811550\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Akbari mocked<\/a> the idea of returning to IAEA cooperation: \u201cIt is laughable they tell us to cooperate with the IAEA\u2026 The missile program has nothing to do with you. We are strong and will be stronger.\u201d From Qom, Hashem Hosseini-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404071811542\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bushehri warned<\/a> citizens not to panic in currency and gold markets, framing snapback as psychological warfare designed to \u201cseparate the people from the system.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2895\" data-end=\"3288\">Taken together, the sermons serve a political function beyond foreign signaling. They seek to stiffen a demoralized base, discourage market jitters from turning into street agitation, and reframe isolation as proof of principle rather than policy failure.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Cuts Subsidies for 3 Million Families, Pushing a Volatile Society Closer to Eruption<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CUxZhOOiuq\">https:\/\/t.co\/CUxZhOOiuq<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1959664500308881738?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3290\" data-end=\"3329\">The money trail that won\u2019t come home<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3331\" data-end=\"3812\">On October 11, the economic picture collided with the pulpit messaging. Hossein Samsami, a member of parliament\u2019s Economic Committee, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mashreghnews.ir\/amp\/1755511\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">rebutted the president\u2019s complaint<\/a> of scarce hard currency by alleging a massive compliance gap: \u201cIn the past seven years nearly $100 billion in export currency has not returned,\u201d he wrote, breaking the figures down further\u2014$95.6 billion unreturned from roughly $270 billion in non-oil exports since 2018, and $56 billion missing since 2022 alone.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3814\" data-end=\"4226\">For a system urging citizens to ignore exchange-rate spikes, those numbers land with force. They imply not only enforcement failure and policy capture\u2014private beneficiaries keeping proceeds offshore\u2014but also a reduced capacity to cushion households against the very sanctions pressure the pulpits tell them to dismiss. If snapback compounds financial choke points, the missing billions magnify the domestic cost.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Can Khamenei Quell <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Restive Society through Executions?<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tAppDfknuC\">https:\/\/t.co\/tAppDfknuC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1754559510964777087?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3814\" data-end=\"4226\">Storm ahead<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"969\" data-end=\"1624\">On September 17, 2025, the cabinet approved\u2014and on October 5 notified\u2014a decree to raise gasoline prices progressively, a move <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/news\/2127557\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">confirmed by state media<\/a> on October 11. The stated aim is to narrow the price gap with CNG and steer consumption toward cheaper fuel. Politically, the cadence matters: \u201cgradual\u201d is designed to avoid a sudden spark while achieving the same fiscal end\u2014households will pay more, and inflationary pass-through will follow across transport, food, and services.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1676\" data-end=\"2247\">The pain at the checkout is not hypothetical. On October 12, the poultry union\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/namnak.com\/chicken-price-today-iran.p111460\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">managing director announced<\/a> the official consumer price for chicken at 135,700 tomans per kilo, alongside a higher input cost for day-old chicks. Ministers call these jumps \u201clogical,\u201d but the social texture says otherwise: Tehran butchers describe families sharing a single drumstick, a rising market for \u201cchicken scraps,\u201d and customers saving chicken tails to render cooking fat\u2014vignettes of erosion in purchasing power that undercut the \u201cnothing to see here\u201d line.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2287\" data-end=\"2980\">On October 11, Salar Saket, a member of the regime-aligned Rice Processing Association, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tasnimnews.com\/fa\/news\/1404\/07\/19\/3420851\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">said out loud<\/a> what consumers already know: domestic policy has \u201cwrecked\u201d the rice market, pushing Iranian varieties to roughly $3\/kg\u2014about triple comparable international quotes around $1.00\u2013$1.10, and still well above his own adjusted ceiling ($1.30\u2013$1.40) even after accounting for lower productivity. Translated into today\u2019s exchange rate, he argued Iranian rice should be 150\u2013160k tomans\/kg, yet retails near 300k\u2014a spread he pins on government mismanagement, not global forces. It\u2019s an unusual, public in-house indictment of the state\u2019s market stewardship.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s conflicting state media outlets sing in chorus in warning against restive society<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/A3XVB0w40J\">https:\/\/t.co\/A3XVB0w40J<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1710300124662858121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2982\" data-end=\"3039\">Downplay vs. admission, with the street in the middle<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3041\" data-end=\"3790\">Stack these moves next to the week\u2019s rhetoric and the split is clear. Pulpits downplay snapback and mock oversight to project steadiness; house press and sectoral insiders admit failure\u2014on the region, on pricing, on enforcement\u2014because the gaps are now too obvious to deny. The gasoline decree converts strategic isolation into monthly budget pain; the chicken price order and the rice concession signal that officials expect households to absorb more\u2014and soon. For a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">volatile society<\/a> that has repeatedly mobilized around prices and dignity, this is not just an economic story; it is the tinder policymakers say they fear, managed with a mix of soothing words and cost-shifting rules that pull in opposite directions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read As international snapback tightens, Tehran&rsquo;s narrative is splitting in two. One camp soothes&mdash;insisting sanctions won&rsquo;t bite and urging calm&mdash;while another, from regime media to industry insiders, now concedes [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":330496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5450],"tags":[5482],"class_list":{"0":"post-338143","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iranian-regime-infighting","8":"tag-iranian-regime-infighting"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Power Struggle Escalates as State Media Admits Setbacks, Snapback Tightens, and the Street Simmers - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Four-minute read As international snapback tightens, Tehran\u2019s narrative is splitting in two. 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