{"id":338239,"date":"2025-10-15T17:29:56","date_gmt":"2025-10-15T16:29:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=338239"},"modified":"2025-10-15T17:32:25","modified_gmt":"2025-10-15T16:32:25","slug":"irans-collapsing-economy-corruption-price-hikes-and-a-regime-feeding-on-its-people","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-collapsing-economy-corruption-price-hikes-and-a-regime-feeding-on-its-people\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Collapsing Economy: Corruption, Price Hikes, and a Regime Feeding on Its People"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_328892\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-328892\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-328892\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-long-queue-poultry-chicken.jpg\" alt=\"Iranians stand in long queue to buy poultry\" width=\"1000\" height=\"564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-long-queue-poultry-chicken.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-long-queue-poultry-chicken-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-long-queue-poultry-chicken-768x433.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-long-queue-poultry-chicken-745x420.jpg 745w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-long-queue-poultry-chicken-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-long-queue-poultry-chicken-696x393.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-328892\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Iranians stand in long queue to buy poultry<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em><strong>Three-minute read<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"130\" data-end=\"694\">On Oct 11, 2025, the state-run <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eghtesadonline.com\/fa\/news\/2092627\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"182\" data-end=\"199\">Eghtesad Online<\/em> reported<\/a> that the Iranian regime\u2019s cabinet had approved a <em data-start=\"244\" data-end=\"253\">gradual<\/em> gasoline price increase\u2014formally passed on Sept 17 and notified on Oct 5\u2014explicitly to \u201creduce social resistance\u201d while narrowing the price gap with compressed natural gas (CNG). The companion coverage on Oct 11 by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabarfoori.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-145\/3170261-%D9%85%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%B2%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D9%85%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D9%86%D8%AD%D9%88%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%AE%D8%B5-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"481\" data-end=\"496\">Khabar-e Fori<\/em> spelled out<\/a> the mechanics: multi-tier pricing with higher rates for consumption above quota, and shifting station commissions and transport costs onto consumers to fix fuel and budget \u201cimbalances.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"696\" data-end=\"1048\">The politics are naked. \u201cGradualism\u201d isn\u2019t about efficiency; it\u2019s about anesthetizing public anger. An MP, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eghtesadnews.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-67\/747751-%D9%86%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%B4%D9%86%DB%8C%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%88%D8%B2%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B5%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%DA%A9%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86-%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AF-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%DB%8C%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AC%DB%8C%D8%A8-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D8%A8%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Morteza Mahmoudi, called<\/a> it what it is\u2014<em data-start=\"838\" data-end=\"874\">putting a hand in people\u2019s pockets<\/em>\u2014and asked why the government has ignored a ready alternative in the budget law (moving fuel quotas onto bank cards to target support) while opting for a broad price squeeze.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1050\" data-end=\"1360\">Even Speaker Mohammad-Baqer Ghalibaf conceded in mid-October that the state buys gasoline at far above the retail price and \u201ccannot sustain\u201d the gap. If that\u2019s true, a responsible government would attack leakage, systemic smuggling and waste. Instead, it taxes households by stealth inflation while preserving elite privileges.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Clerical Regime\u2019s \u2018Endure and Suffer\u2019 Tactic: Crushing <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>&#39;s Society Through Systemic Deprivation<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/M5QSicO9FK\">https:\/\/t.co\/M5QSicO9FK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1966010526271430848?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 11, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1362\" data-end=\"1410\">Fiscal extraction dressed up as energy policy<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1411\" data-end=\"1814\">The new regime links are clear: raise gasoline relative to CNG, cap quotas, penalize \u201cexcess\u201d use. That structure lands hardest on low-income households who face pass-through costs in food and transport, while better-off motorists with access to CNG kits and stations keep more options. By making consumers pay station fees and logistics, the cabinet turned an energy problem into a general price shock.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1816\" data-end=\"2196\">The double standard is glaring. As the regime prepares families for higher pump prices, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/news\/2127452\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"1898\" data-end=\"1913\">Khabar Online<\/em> quoted<\/a> Tehran\u2019s ambassador in Beirut boasting that free fuel had been offered to Lebanon (Lebanese officials declined over sanctions risk). Iranian citizens don\u2019t get to decline their own bills. The message is simple: geopolitical optics first; domestic affordability later.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Economic Collapse Is Fueled by the Regime\u2019s Political Choices, Not Sanctions<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mfbZhzWp6a\">https:\/\/t.co\/mfbZhzWp6a<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1978498341802536968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 15, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2198\" data-end=\"2246\">A shrinking economy can\u2019t absorb a fuel shock<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2247\" data-end=\"2889\">The Majlis <a href=\"https:\/\/donya-e-eqtesad.com\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%AA-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-62\/4220122-%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%B5%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D8%B4-%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%87-%D9%86%D8%AE%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84-%D9%85%D9%86%D9%81%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Research Center now estimates<\/a> \u20130.3% growth for the first half of the Iranian year (March\u2013September 2025) and says last year\u2019s 3.1% was a one-off oil spurt. Against an official target of 8% growth with 35% of it from productivity, measured productivity was roughly 1.9%. The World Bank projects the economy to contract 1.7% in 2025 and another 2.8% in 2026, citing weaker oil exports, non-oil recession, the return of UN sanctions, and the fallout from the recent Twelve-Day War. An Abu Dhabi\u2013based policy center warns that a full sanctions snap-back could push Iran toward economic collapse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2247\" data-end=\"2889\">Even these figures, drawn from official Iranian institutions, are open to doubt in a system where economic data are politically filtered and transparency is treated as a threat, not a standard.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2891\" data-end=\"3266\">Jobs and investment tell the same story. Out of a 1,000,000 jobs target, only 298,000 have materialized. Growth in the productive capital stock is below 1.5%. To reach the vaunted 8% trajectory, authorities estimate financing needs equal to roughly 150% of what the system can realistically mobilize\u2014leaving a yawning funding gap that no fuel tweak can close.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3268\" data-end=\"3612\">Policy choices are compounding the pain. On Oct 14, 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/news\/2128742\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ghalibaf announced<\/a> the removal of cash subsidies for roughly 18 million people beginning in late October\/November, with a promised shift to ration-style vouchers. In practice, households will pay more for energy while receiving less cash support\u2014during a contractionary year.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Parliament in Panic: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Regime Lawmakers Admit to Deepening Economic Collapse<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/6XzvubTIBn\">https:\/\/t.co\/6XzvubTIBn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1976282542358876467?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3614\" data-end=\"3669\">Misplaced priorities, from stadiums to customs gates<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3670\" data-end=\"4059\">Public frustration isn\u2019t only about macro data; it\u2019s about symbols of impunity. A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.entekhab.ir\/fa\/news\/889922\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sports journalist revealed<\/a> that the national football team\u2019s friendly in the UAE carried a price tag of about 60 billion tomans\u2014for an 89-person entourage padded with lawmakers and \u201cleaders,\u201d plus a $10,000 fee to an agent to arrange a match with Tanzania. Austerity at home; junkets abroad.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4061\" data-end=\"4478\">Worse is the structural rot. The head of the <a href=\"https:\/\/static3.toseeirani.ir\/servev2\/SqFEJHLBd0gn\/j1B63KgImKU,\/03.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Importers\u2019 Association admitted<\/a> that nearly two-thirds of all imports arrive via smuggling, which he said is impossible without collusion inside official structures. If most imports flow through illicit channels with state-linked protection, the problem isn\u2019t consumer subsidies; it\u2019s a mafia-administration that bleeds the budget and then blames the poor.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Oil Wealth Drained as Regime Faces Economic Collapse Under Renewed UN Sanctions<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/q2tTKGTkyH\">https:\/\/t.co\/q2tTKGTkyH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1974896827288928653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 5, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"181\" data-end=\"202\">The Breaking Point<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"204\" data-end=\"627\">Iran\u2019s fuel hikes are not economic management; they are the reflex of a bankrupt state living off its people. The clerical regime is no longer capable of reform because <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/delving-into-irans-corruption-chronicles-part-1\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">corruption is not its flaw<\/a>\u2014it is its foundation. Official data already admits negative growth, falling investment, and unfulfilled job targets, yet the government\u2019s answer is more extraction: higher prices, fewer subsidies, and lavish waste at the top.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"629\" data-end=\"1073\">A government that imports gasoline while offering \u201cfree fuel\u201d abroad, that slashes cash aid while financing luxury trips for its officials, has lost not only credibility but control. The same system that cannot stop two-thirds of its imports from being smuggled cannot persuade its citizens that sacrifice serves a national purpose. Each \u201cgradual\u201d increase is another transfer of wealth from a collapsing middle class to an untouchable elite.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1075\" data-end=\"1531\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">This is not austerity\u2014it is disintegration. The regime lacks both the will and the capacity to change course. By choosing repression over reform and plunder over production, it is driving the country toward a perfect storm: a convergence of economic collapse, social exhaustion, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/the-lasting-impact-of-the-2022-uprising-on-irans-political-landscape\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">political revolt<\/a>. Whether it begins with another protest over fuel or a broader demand for dignity, the next nationwide uprising is no longer a question of <em data-start=\"1514\" data-end=\"1518\">if<\/em>, but <em data-start=\"1524\" data-end=\"1530\">when<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read On Oct 11, 2025, the state-run Eghtesad Online reported that the Iranian regime&rsquo;s cabinet had approved a gradual gasoline price increase&mdash;formally passed on Sept 17 and notified on [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":328892,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":{"0":"post-338239","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-iran-economy"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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