{"id":338850,"date":"2025-11-03T21:35:45","date_gmt":"2025-11-03T20:35:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=338850"},"modified":"2025-11-03T21:35:45","modified_gmt":"2025-11-03T20:35:45","slug":"irans-hard-pivot-from-detente-to-coercion-and-the-purge-politics-driving-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/irans-hard-pivot-from-detente-to-coercion-and-the-purge-politics-driving-it\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Hard-Pivot from \u201cDetente\u201d to Coercion\u2014And the Purge Politics Driving It"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_256106\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-256106\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-256106\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/majlis-e1762202082968.jpg\" alt=\"majlis\" width=\"1000\" height=\"562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/majlis-e1762202082968.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/majlis-e1762202082968-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/majlis-e1762202082968-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/majlis-e1762202082968-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/majlis-e1762202082968-696x391.jpg 696w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/majlis-e1762202082968-747x420.jpg 747w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-256106\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">File Photo: A dispute at the Iranian regime&#8217;s so-called parliament<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Four-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"82\" data-end=\"619\">The clerical regime is broadcasting a new doctrine at home: d\u00e9tente failed; only raw power protects the state. In practice, that \u201cparadigm shift\u201d functions as an ideological cudgel to criminalize the previous negotiating track, discipline wobbly elites, and paper over an economy in deep distress. Over the past week, regime media and officials fused three themes\u2014repudiation of engagement, juridical intimidation of former decision-makers, and celebration of nuclear and missile restoration\u2014to manufacture momentum where little exists.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"621\" data-end=\"1255\">Kayhan, overseen by the Supreme Leader\u2019s representative, <a href=\"https:\/\/kayhan.ir\/fa\/news\/321536\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">set the line.<\/a> It declared that the 1990s-born policy of \u201ctension-reduction\u201d had \u201cfailed to sustainably secure national interests and security,\u201d because it rested on \u201coptimism toward the structure of the international system.\u201d The paper framed a \u201cparadigm transformation\u201d as \u201cinevitable,\u201d insisting policy must \u201cshift from engagement-centrism to power-building.\u201d This is less analysis than indictment. By declaring d\u00e9tente a flawed premise rather than a mistimed tactic, Kayhan delegitimizes an entire current inside the state and licenses punitive measures against its figures.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Khamenei Rejects U.S. Overtures, Says Conflict with U.S. Is Permanent<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/93WEuazTdr\">https:\/\/t.co\/93WEuazTdr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1985413164280791163?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 3, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"621\" data-end=\"1255\">Death Sentence for Rouhani<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1257\" data-end=\"1985\">Punishment followed the talking points. Tehran MP Kamran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.didbaniran.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-3\/247895-%D8%BA%D8%B6%D9%86%D9%81%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D9%86%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%AC%D9%84%D8%B3-%D8%B2%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%82%D9%88%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%B6%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%88-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%AF-%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%AF-%D9%BE%D8%B1%D9%88%D9%86%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%82%D9%88%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%B6%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%87-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%B8%D8%B1-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D9%87%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%AE%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AD%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B3%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D9%81%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B6-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%B8%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%81-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%87%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%B7-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%DA%86%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%B6%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A8%D8%B2%D9%86%D9%86%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ghazanfari told the Didban-e Iran<\/a> website that \u201cpeople are waiting to see the judiciary issue a death sentence for Hassan Rouhani,\u201d adding that some alleged charges rise to \u201cefsad-fel-arz,\u201d warranting \u201cseveral executions\u201d if \u201cproven in court.\u201d He derided the former president as \u201cbrazen,\u201d claiming he now \u201cacts as if the system owes him.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1987\" data-end=\"2885\">The campaign widened. Parliamentary presidium spokesman <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/news\/2136858\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Abbas Goudarzi demanded<\/a> action against former foreign minister Mohammad-Javad Zarif, accusing him of \u201cdisturbing public opinion\u201d and \u201cfeeding the enemy\u2019s mill.\u201d In his telling, today\u2019s crises all stem from Rouhani\u2019s eight-year presidency and a negotiating posture caricatured as \u201cany agreement is better than no agreement,\u201d which allegedly \u201cstopped both national progress and the centrifuges.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1987\" data-end=\"2885\">In Friday prayers on October 31, 2025, Khamenei\u2019s appointee in Khorramabad, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6640171\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ahmadreza Shahrokhi, said<\/a> the 2013\u20132021 governments kept Iran \u201cwaiting for the empty promises of America and Europe\u201d while failing to use \u201ccapacities of other countries,\u201d before praising two rapid trips by the Supreme National Security Council secretary to Moscow as proof of proper alignment.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Ruling Class Turns on Itself as Crises Deepen<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CTjgQXrpTj\">https:\/\/t.co\/CTjgQXrpTj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1985054588756484110?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 2, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1987\" data-end=\"2885\">Double Game<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2887\" data-end=\"3466\">To underline that the red line is not diplomacy per se but submission, Ali Larijani\u2014now Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tasnimnews.com\/fa\/news\/1404\/08\/11\/3438015\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">offered the calibrated<\/a> version on November 2, 2025: \u201cWe are not saying we won\u2019t negotiate\u2026 but it must be real negotiation,\u201d not a process where outcomes are \u201cprewritten\u201d by the other side. He cast external demands as endless: first \u201cno enrichment,\u201d then \u201creduce missile range,\u201d then \u201cdo what we say in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3468\" data-end=\"3937\">If Larijani supplied the courtroom tone, his brother Mohammad-Javad Larijani provided the menace. On November 2, 2025, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tabnak.ir\/fa\/news\/1337923\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he boasted<\/a> that Iran is a country that \u201ccould have an atomic bomb in less than two weeks,\u201d only to add that the system \u201cdecisively does not want\u201d a bomb\u2014an assertion meant to preserve plausible deniability while signaling latent capability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3939\" data-end=\"4876\">The regime&#8217;s president Masoud <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1109665\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pezeshkian tried to straddle<\/a> the divide and pleased no one. After visiting damaged nuclear facilities, he vowed on November 2, 2025, that Tehran will \u201crebuild with even greater power.\u201d He also recycled the official line that a religious edict bars nuclear weapons and argued that Iran\u2019s scientific base makes reconstruction inevitable: \u201cBy destroying one or two buildings, they cannot solve the issue\u2026 we will rebuild and with more power.\u201d Yet this same president, on August 9, 2025, had warned: \u201cIf we rebuild, they will strike again\u2026 someone tell me what we intend to do?\u201d The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps\u2019 Quds-linked media pounced within hours of his November remarks, blasting \u201cexpressions of weakness\u201d that supposedly tell the enemy \u201cThere is no image but that of Iran\u2019s \u2018weakness.\u2019\u201d The resulting tableau\u2014president as messenger, security organs as editors\u2014captures the system\u2019s hierarchy and its insecurities.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Power Structure Buckles Under Political, Economic, and Nuclear Pressure<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/abvkCn5vAj\">https:\/\/t.co\/abvkCn5vAj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1965397294435762556?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3939\" data-end=\"4876\">Parliament Vents Crisis<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4878\" data-end=\"6168\">Inside the Majles, the economic crisis dissolved what remained of message discipline. Lawmakers from across the map flooded the floor with warnings. Hossein Samsami, a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icana.ir\/news\/405977\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">veteran MP, called<\/a> an \u201ceconomic catastrophe\u201d imminent if the government scraps the 28,500-rial preferential exchange mechanism, likening it to the inflationary shock from eliminating the 42,000-rial rate in 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4878\" data-end=\"6168\">Others said \u201cpeople can no longer bear these prices and runaway inflation,\u201d and that \u201cevery day prices go up but wages are fixed,\u201d while a representative from Sistan and Baluchistan asked the president if he \u201chears the sound of people\u2019s bones breaking\u201d under \u201csoaring rent,\u201d \u201ccollapsed purchasing power,\u201d and \u201cjoblessness that forces the young into fuel smuggling\u2014bread at the price of life.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4878\" data-end=\"6168\">On the parliamentary floor, Hamid <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6642185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Ras\u0101ee accused Vice President<\/a> Mohammad Reza Aref of holding an \u201cillegal\u201d position because his son holds German citizenship, declaring that \u201claw-breaking begins from here\u201d and warning the speaker that silence amounts to complicity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4878\" data-end=\"6168\">Even Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf\u2014usually the conductor\u2014was reduced to cutting microphones as deputies accused the executive of \u201cmarket abandonment,\u201d \u201claw-breaking appointments,\u201d and clandestine digital-platform deals.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Power Struggle Escalates as State Media Admits Setbacks, Snapback Tightens, and the Street Simmers<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sxHEeUIuiK\">https:\/\/t.co\/sxHEeUIuiK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1977421264244687306?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"131\" data-end=\"166\">Unity Narrative Falls Apart<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"168\" data-end=\"643\">The regime is no longer steering events; it is reacting to overlapping crises it cannot contain. With senior officials calling for Rouhani\u2019s execution, MPs accusing Aref of disloyalty, and security figures contradicting the president on the nuclear file, the system is no longer trying to present a united front. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-what-to-make-of-khameneis-speech-in-qom\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Khamenei\u2019s long-used language<\/a> of <em data-start=\"521\" data-end=\"529\">vahdat<\/em>\u2014unity and coherence\u2014has given way to public disciplining, loyalty tests, and punitive signaling inside the elite.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"645\" data-end=\"965\">The world is now witnessing a state trying to hold its own factions in place as the pressure overwhelms them. The crisis is no longer at the edges; it is inside the ruling class.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read The clerical regime is broadcasting a new doctrine at home: d&eacute;tente failed; only raw power protects the state. In practice, that &ldquo;paradigm shift&rdquo; functions as an ideological cudgel [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":256106,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,5450],"tags":[5482],"class_list":{"0":"post-338850","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"category-iranian-regime-infighting","9":"tag-iranian-regime-infighting"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Hard-Pivot from \u201cDetente\u201d to Coercion\u2014And the Purge Politics Driving It - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Four-minute read The clerical regime is broadcasting a new doctrine at home: d\u00e9tente failed; only raw power protects the state. 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