{"id":338882,"date":"2025-11-04T19:39:48","date_gmt":"2025-11-04T18:39:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=338882"},"modified":"2025-11-04T20:46:15","modified_gmt":"2025-11-04T19:46:15","slug":"a-system-that-can-no-longer-close-its-ranks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/a-system-that-can-no-longer-close-its-ranks\/","title":{"rendered":"A System That Can No Longer Close Its Ranks\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"1\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-338893 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/split-image-of-ali-khamenei.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/split-image-of-ali-khamenei.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/split-image-of-ali-khamenei-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/split-image-of-ali-khamenei-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/split-image-of-ali-khamenei-746x420.jpg 746w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/split-image-of-ali-khamenei-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/split-image-of-ali-khamenei-696x392.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Three-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Factional conflict inside the <\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Iranian regime<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> once functioned like a pressure valve: when the system felt existential risk, elites muted their quarrels and rallied to survival. That reflex is gone. Under acute stress, they are fighting in public\u2014and not over policy so much as over who survives a post-Khamenei order. The result is rupture, not reconsolidation.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">We saw it plainly this week. Ali Larijani, now secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, warned that \u201csome of the country\u2019s political elders still do not grasp the sensitivity and gravity of the current moment\u201d and are \u201ceasily brawling with each other,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1109564\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">urging them<\/a> to \u201ccross differences and strengthen national cohesion.\u201d The appeal reads less like arbitration than alarm: a veteran insider telling the class that the house is on fire and they\u2019re arguing over furniture. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The struggle is not about a new economic line or foreign-policy doctrine; it is about succession. As Khamenei ages, no agreed path or consensus successor is visible. That vacuum pulls every argument into the gravity well of who will speak for the state after him\u2014and who will be silenced now.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A retrospective look into the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/history?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#history<\/a> of Khamenei&#39;s power-grabbing and the ferocious process of adsorption and desorption that enabled his position in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>&#39;s politics. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WZ6tJu2lo8\">https:\/\/t.co\/WZ6tJu2lo8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1654556823049969672?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 5, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Two Drivers of Panic <\/span><span data-contrast=\"none\">in the Ruling Class<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">First, the Raisi vacuum. After Ebrahim Raisi\u2019s death, Khamenei was forced to rebalance rather than complete his \u201cone-line\u201d consolidation. He has effectively put Masoud Pezeshkian in the presidency and Ali Larijani at the national-security helm\u2014two figures that infuriate the Paydari extremists and parts of the IRGC commentariat because <a href=\"https:\/\/en.irna.ir\/news\/85770953\/President-Pezeshkian-urges-solving-problems-rather-than-changing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pezeshkian\u2019s steady drumbeat<\/a> about dysfunction demoralizes an already shrinking loyal base, and Larijani keeps telling the system to learn from prior governments instead of performing \u201cblind resistance.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Second, the return of sidelined power-brokers. Former president Hassan Rouhani has re-entered the arena. In a widely circulated clip carried by state media on October 23, 2025, he challenged the Majles\u2019s representativeness\u2014<\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u201cWhat percentage of the people does this parliament represent?\u201d<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u2014and argued that when \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.tabnak.ir\/fa\/news\/1335983\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">90 percent of people<\/a>\u201d oppose a measure (he was referring to the new hijab law), \u201cthat is not law; the spirit of such a law is corrupt.\u201d For a figure once cast as a system-loyal manager, it was the opening move of a Rafsanjani-style bid to shape succession\u2014an attempt to position himself not as an outsider, but as the broker of the next leadership arrangement.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">They are not alone. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/news\/2135309\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Faezeh Hashemi intensified<\/a> her long-running confrontation with the core of the state by stating in an interview published by Khabar Online on October 28, 2025, that her father, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, was \u201cassassinated internally,\u201d pointedly rejecting foreign involvement\u2014\u201cit was an internal terror.\u201d The timing matters: she is making the claim at a moment of visible regime disarray, when such an accusation extracts maximum political cost from the leadership and signals confidence that power balances are shifting.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">NCRI Editorial: The Aftermath of Ebrahim <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Raisi?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Raisi<\/a>\u2019s Death: A Turning Point for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vg4DJ6746O\">https:\/\/t.co\/vg4DJ6746O<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1792534236395946250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 20, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">And when Ali-Akbar Nateq Nouri\u2014a pillar of the old right\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/920329\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">called the 1979 <\/a><\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\">U.S.<\/span><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> embassy takeover a \u201cbig mistake,\u201d state television responded by dredging up a 1993 speech to paint him back into orthodoxy. The meta-message was obvious: delegitimize today\u2019s dissent by replaying yesterday\u2019s loyalty. The story ran November 4, 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Meanwhile Gholamhossein Karbaschi (ex-Tehran mayor) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rouydad24.ir\/fa\/news\/433241\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">attacked the coercive<\/a> turn on hijab enforcement as strategically self-defeating\u2014\u201ceven eight million enforcers would have no effect\u201d\u2014and criticized budget flows to culture-war institutions, calling the moves contrary to Supreme National Security Council guidance. That interview published October 23, 2025, underscoring how figures with regime pedigree now frame the center\u2019s priorities as threats to the system\u2019s own stability.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Meanwhile Mahmoud Ahmadinejad remains in the system but outside obedience: a former president with factional networks and unresolved files, impossible to purge yet impossible to trust\u2014another variable player in the succession field.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> News in Brief<br \/>Today, August 6, at a ceremony attended by judges from the regime\u2019s Supreme Court, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, the head of the Judiciary, made some significant changes to the judiciary personnel. After serving the regime as the Prosecutor-General for seven\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5guqaEt39A\">pic.twitter.com\/5guqaEt39A<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1688260104137621504?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 6, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Why This Time Is Different<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The judiciary continues to operate as the Leader\u2019s enforcement arm, signaling to all factions that critique has criminal thresholds\u2014even for insiders. It is less an institution of adjudication than a mechanism for managing internal obedience.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Khamenei has paid a steep price to keep the machine running: Pezeshkian and Larijani now sit at the steering wheel, despite being deeply disliked by the Paydari bloc and segments of the IRGC\u2019s loyalist media. To parts of his own base, both remain symbolic defeats. Yet this is the price the Leader now pays to keep factions from breaking into open revolt. Larijani\u2019s public warning that \u201csome elders don\u2019t understand the gravity of the moment\u201d is evidence that even this balancing act is losing altitude.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">All signals from inside the system point in the same direction: senior actors now operate on the assumption that Khamenei\u2019s doctrine has failed\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/khameneis-admission-of-failure-irans-power-consolidation-plan-in-shambles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">failed to consolidate<\/a> a unified ruling bloc, failed to convert regional proxy investment into durable power, and failed to secure a nuclear posture that guarantees survival. The outcome is not a strategic reset, but a scramble for positioning in a post-Khamenei order.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read&nbsp; Factional conflict inside the Iranian regime once functioned like a pressure valve: when the system felt existential risk, elites muted their quarrels and rallied to survival. That reflex [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":338893,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,5450],"tags":[5480,5482],"class_list":{"0":"post-338882","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"category-iranian-regime-infighting","9":"tag-ali-khamenei","10":"tag-iranian-regime-infighting"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A System That Can No Longer Close Its Ranks\u00a0 - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read\u00a0 Factional conflict inside the Iranian regime once functioned like a pressure valve: when the system felt existential risk, elites muted\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/a-system-that-can-no-longer-close-its-ranks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A System That Can No Longer Close Its Ranks\u00a0 - 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