{"id":339653,"date":"2025-11-22T16:00:35","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T15:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=339653"},"modified":"2025-11-22T16:00:35","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T15:00:35","slug":"irans-water-fuel-and-food-crises-reveal-a-regime-out-of-options","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-water-fuel-and-food-crises-reveal-a-regime-out-of-options\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Water, Fuel and Food Crises Reveal a Regime Out of Options"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_339655\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-339655\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-339655 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hirkani-forest-in-northern-iran-on-fire.jpg\" alt=\"Huge wildfires reported in Iran\u2019s Hirkanian forests, November 2025\" width=\"1000\" height=\"564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hirkani-forest-in-northern-iran-on-fire.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hirkani-forest-in-northern-iran-on-fire-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hirkani-forest-in-northern-iran-on-fire-768x433.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hirkani-forest-in-northern-iran-on-fire-745x420.jpg 745w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hirkani-forest-in-northern-iran-on-fire-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/hirkani-forest-in-northern-iran-on-fire-696x393.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-339655\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Huge wildfires reported in Iran\u2019s Hirkanian forests, November 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"298\" data-end=\"871\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"298\" data-end=\"871\">On Saturday, November 22, 2025, Iran entered another day of closures and improvisation. Toxic air forced schools and universities across Tehran, Khuzestan, East and West Azerbaijan, and Markazi to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ilna.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%87%D8%A7-15\/1717161-%D9%85%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%B3-%D8%AA%D8%A8%D8%B1%DB%8C%D8%B2-%D8%A7%D8%B3%DA%A9%D9%88-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%A8-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%87-%DB%8C%DA%A9%D8%B4%D9%86%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%BA%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%AD%D8%B6%D9%88%D8%B1%DB%8C-%D8%AD%D9%85%D9%84-%D9%88%D9%86%D9%82%D9%84-%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%88%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A7%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">shut or move online<\/a>. In Qazvin, a senior lawmaker warned that \u201cif Tehran is thirsty, Qazvin is hungry\u201d after the province lost a major portion of its water rights. At the same time, the government began rolling out a new tier of imported \u201csuper\u201d gasoline while state media confirmed that nearly 438,000 people had been removed from the monthly subsidy rolls.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"873\" data-end=\"1106\">These are not parallel crises\u2014they are a single political story: a state trapped between fiscal collapse and social volatility, rationing necessities it can no longer provide, and fearing the unrest that any correction might trigger.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1113\" data-end=\"1144\">Water As Governance Failure<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1146\" data-end=\"1640\">In Qazvin on November 20, MP Ruhollah Abbaspour\u2014speaking directly in front of the regime&#8217;s president Masoud Pezeshkian\u2014<a href=\"https:\/\/sobheqazvin.ir\/news\/141\/%D8%A7%DA%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%8C-%D9%82%D8%B2%D9%88%DB%8C%D9%86-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%B3%D9%86%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">laid out<\/a> the province\u2019s position bluntly. With 280 million cubic meters of its water rights cut, households cannot secure even basic needs. \u201cPeople will resist,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1642\" data-end=\"2137\">Abbaspour is not an outsider. As a former head of the Planning and Budget Organization, he also admitted that the prices of essential foods have risen around 100% year-on-year, and that eliminating the remaining $12 billion in preferential foreign exchange would hit the poorest hardest because \u201cphase two\u201d\u2014compensation\u2014\u201cnever comes.\u201d His warning was not social advocacy. It was a signal to fellow insiders that removing subsidies without cushioning society is now politically dangerous.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2139\" data-end=\"2766\">Environmental collapse is reinforcing that sense of abandonment. Since early November, parts of the Hirkanian forests near Elit in the Chalous region have burned with little state response. The president\u2019s executive deputy triggered public outrage after referring to the area as a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.entekhab.ir\/fa\/news\/8961563\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">mere \u201cgrassland,\u201d<\/a> minimizing the disaster. Only after days of criticism did the Environment Organization confirm that two Turkish firefighting planes, a helicopter, and additional personnel were being sent to help. The admission underscored what people already see: a state unable\u2014or unwilling\u2014to protect the natural systems millions rely on.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> News: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Wildfires?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Wildfires<\/a> Ravage Iran\u2019s Forests Amidst Drought and Systemic Negligence<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/oCvE8eMLxl\">https:\/\/t.co\/oCvE8eMLxl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1798263487514419612?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 5, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2926\" data-end=\"2969\">Fuel, Queues, And the Politics of Price<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"160\" data-end=\"618\">Fuel exposes an even deeper deadlock. Iran\u2019s two-tier ration\u201460 liters at 1,500 tomans and 100 liters at 3,000 tomans\u2014has been stretched beyond viability. Domestic production this year is projected around 107 million liters per day, while consumption has exceeded 127 million. Even parliament now admits that at least 20 million liters must be imported daily, a burden that drains billions of dollars from a budget already in the red.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"620\" data-end=\"1179\">On November 19, the oil minister acknowledged that these imports had become \u201cannoying for the budget\u201d and confirmed that a joint economic\u2013security task force is now shaping fuel policy. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6658686\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">According to Mehr News<\/a>, regime-aligned experts frame the new third gasoline rate\u2014applied through station-card purchases\u2014as a \u201cfirst step\u201d toward gradual price \u201crealism,\u201d explicitly warning that sudden hikes could trigger social shock. When security agencies are embedded in subsidy design, it signals fear of public reaction, not confidence in reform.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1181\" data-end=\"1788\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">For a system haunted by the memory of November 2019, this is less policy innovation than an attempt to shift costs upward quietly, hoping the fuse stays dry.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Is Iran\u2019s Regime Playing with Fire by Increasing Fuel Prices?<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HKm82Q7qHo\">https:\/\/t.co\/HKm82Q7qHo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1652340463771189250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 29, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Scarcity Meets Coercion<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4562\" data-end=\"4870\">As economic pressures mount, the political tone sharpens. Judicial and security officials increasingly frame any protest over prices, wages, or shortages as a threat to \u201corder,\u201d promising to identify and punish \u201cdisturbers.\u201d These warnings accompany subsidy and fuel debates as predictably as inflation does.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4872\" data-end=\"5315\">Inside the technocratic establishment, criticism is similarly coercive. Abbaspour\u2019s caution against eliminating preferential forex was not a plea for social protection. It was a reminder that eliminating subsidies without delivering compensation signals weakness. Official data and even regime-adjacent analytics tend to understate the gravity of the crisis, but even the sanitized figures point to a combustible mix of scarcity and anger.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5317\" data-end=\"5731\">Meanwhile, the Ministry of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1116013\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Health is issuing<\/a> its own coded messages. On November 21, a senior nutrition official said essential foods have become \u201climited and difficult\u201d for the bottom five deciles, and that 35\u201345% of families consume too little dairy and vegetables. This was described not as a health emergency but as a warning to other ministries: a hungry population is politically unpredictable.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5771\" data-end=\"6268\">The ground reality is moving faster than the official discourse. Food inflation above 60%, combined with the removal of 438,000 people from the subsidy list in a single month, has forced many families to drop proteins, dairy, and even legumes from their diets. Worker representatives say current wages \u201cdo not cover even 10 days\u201d of living expenses. Independent economists such as Hossein Raghfar put roughly 40% of Iranians near absolute poverty and millions at direct risk of hunger.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6552\" data-end=\"6732\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> News: Regime Economist Admits to Collapse: \u201cThe People\u2019s Table Is Empty\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/c3C012T2Ja\">https:\/\/t.co\/c3C012T2Ja<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1957513651176501625?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6739\" data-end=\"6768\">What The System Fears Now<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6770\" data-end=\"7118\">From water to fuel to food, the pattern is the same: every available decision is costly, and postponing decisions is costlier still. Fuel adjustments risk sparking the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iran-protests-2019\/\">memory of 2019<\/a>. Water cuts radicalize regions long treated as compliant. Subsidy reductions sharpen daily hunger. Environmental crises undermine even symbolic claims of competence.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"7120\" data-end=\"7424\">The clerical dictatorship now governs through a combination of scarcity and surveillance. But scarcity erodes obedience faster than repression can rebuild it. November 22, 2025, is not the breaking point, but it shows the shape of one: a state that can neither satisfy its citizens nor tolerate their response.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"7426\" data-end=\"7582\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">In such a system, another uprising is not a question of whether\u2014it is a question of when the next shock lands in a society already stretched past its limit.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read On Saturday, November 22, 2025, Iran entered another day of closures and improvisation. Toxic air forced schools and universities across Tehran, Khuzestan, East and West Azerbaijan, and Markazi [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":339655,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":{"0":"post-339653","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-iran-economy"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Water, Fuel and Food Crises Reveal a Regime Out of Options - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read On Saturday, November 22, 2025, Iran entered another day of closures and improvisation. 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