{"id":339850,"date":"2025-11-27T19:36:05","date_gmt":"2025-11-27T18:36:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=339850"},"modified":"2025-11-27T19:36:05","modified_gmt":"2025-11-27T18:36:05","slug":"irans-crises-converge-as-the-regime-confronts-a-country-it-can-no-longer-manage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-crises-converge-as-the-regime-confronts-a-country-it-can-no-longer-manage\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Crises Converge as the Regime Confronts a Country It Can No Longer Manage"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"86\" data-end=\"535\">\n<p data-start=\"86\" data-end=\"535\">\n<figure id=\"attachment_307107\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-307107\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-307107 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iran-protests-07052023-e1683523618761.jpg\" alt=\"iran protests 07052023\" width=\"1000\" height=\"567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iran-protests-07052023-e1683523618761.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iran-protests-07052023-e1683523618761-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iran-protests-07052023-e1683523618761-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iran-protests-07052023-e1683523618761-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/iran-protests-07052023-e1683523618761-696x395.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-307107\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Retirees in Shush stage a protest in May 2023<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"86\" data-end=\"535\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"86\" data-end=\"535\">The last week of November 2025 exposed something deeper than environmental and economic mismanagement in Iran. Fuel price hikes wrapped in technical language, schools shuttered across 15 provinces because of toxic air, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/11\/23\/world\/europe\/iran-fire-hyrcanian-forests.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UNESCO-listed forests<\/a> burning for days without equipment, and parliamentarians warning of social explosion all pointed to a single reality: the state is losing the ability to contain the consequences of its own policies.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"537\" data-end=\"751\">Individually, these stories might read as familiar dysfunction. Taken together\u2014and voiced by the regime\u2019s own media and lawmakers\u2014they show a system that now treats every failure as a potential precursor to unrest.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"753\" data-end=\"1382\">On November 26, the government-aligned <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ettelaat.com\/news\/124999\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">daily <em data-start=\"798\" data-end=\"808\">Ettelaat<\/em> revived<\/a> a sensitive memory inside the establishment: the fuel protests of 2017 and 2019. It warned that higher gasoline prices can trigger \u201cwidespread dissatisfaction,\u201d with long-term poverty and pressure that \u201ccreate the conditions for crisis\u201d if another spark appears. The timing was not accidental. Just a day earlier, the cabinet of Masoud <a href=\"https:\/\/president.ir\/fa\/162694\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pezeshkian had approved<\/a> a third fuel tier: from December 6, gasoline purchased with \u201cemergency station cards\u201d will cost 5,000 tomans per liter, on top of the existing 1,500 and 3,000-toman quotas tied to personal cards.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Khamenei?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Khamenei<\/a>\u2019s Grip on Power Slips Amid Intensifying Factional Warfare<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/98hGe6rQfg\">https:\/\/t.co\/98hGe6rQfg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1962924971958661494?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 2, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1384\" data-end=\"1718\">Officially, the government insists that cheap quotas remain untouched. But the design gives the state a quiet path to shift more consumption into the 5,000-toman channel. In practice, the poorest drivers\u2014those with the least reliable access to their own cards or the most irregular fuel needs\u2014will be pushed toward the costliest tier.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1720\" data-end=\"2074\">At the same time, another state-run outlet, <a href=\"https:\/\/charsoghnewspaper.com\/%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%88%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D9%82%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%DA%AF%D8%B4%D8%AA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"1769\" data-end=\"1779\">Charsouq<\/em>, acknowledged<\/a> that the promise to phase out mazut, the heavy fuel oil blamed for winter smog, has \u201cgone up in smoke.\u201d As pollution forced authorities to close schools in 15 provinces, it noted that power plants and heavy industry had slipped back into burning mazut to bridge energy shortfalls.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2076\" data-end=\"2485\">The environmental damage is no longer theoretical. In the Hyrcanian forests of Golestan, a UNESCO-listed ecosystem, fires that began late October spread rapidly across at least five counties. Local Red Crescent teams and residents with improvised tools formed the main line of defense while high winds pushed new fronts through steep terrain. The state news agency <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irna.ir\/news\/86006104\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IRNA confirmed<\/a> six major fire centers.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Economic Crisis Isn\u2019t a Mystery\u2014It\u2019s the Regime\u2019s Legacy<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yTq2D6gXgt\">https:\/\/t.co\/yTq2D6gXgt<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1914300549459063198?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 21, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2487\" data-end=\"2893\">The deputy head of Iran\u2019s Environmental Protection Organization offered a blunt explanation: \u201cWe really have no equipment, no manpower, no facilities\u2026 about 60 fire points remain active.\u201d In the Majlis, one lawmaker chastised officials for referring to the Hyrcanian forests as mere \u201cgrassland,\u201d linking that dismissiveness to the same neglect that has left major cities unable to guarantee breathable air.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2895\" data-end=\"3111\">Tehran\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404090603686\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">air-quality index hit 200<\/a>\u2013236 that week, briefly ranking the capital among the world\u2019s most polluted cities. Twenty-five monitoring stations reported \u201cunhealthy for all\u201d levels; none reported acceptable air.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3113\" data-end=\"3395\">The health system is feeling the strain. Pediatric hospitals in Tehran report a 20\u201330 percent jump in admissions, driven by influenza, COVID-19, and other respiratory infections, while the cost of medicines and visits has climbed to the point that some households are avoiding care.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Power, Water, and Economic Crises in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Escalate into National Security Threats, Regime Insiders Warn<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/a0LQAXfUbX\">https:\/\/t.co\/a0LQAXfUbX<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1910326902491172996?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3397\" data-end=\"3898\">Inside the Majlis on November 25 and 26, the economic picture sounded just as unstable. One representative compared the spread of foot-and-mouth disease among livestock to \u201canother coronavirus,\u201d blaming high feed prices and market \u201cchaos.\u201d Another said <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eghtesadonline.com\/fa\/news\/2102924\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">milk prices had climbed<\/a> in five months as much as they typically do in fifty years. An MP from Sistan-Baluchestan described a province \u201cburning in continuous drought,\u201d accusing the state of neglecting basic food, currency, and energy management.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3900\" data-end=\"4246\">The water data are even more stark. The spokesperson for the Article-90 <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/Z__wKjG26yU?t=28\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Commission told parliament<\/a> that of 609 plains studied nationwide, 422 are now classified as restricted or critically restricted, up from 317 in 2013. Tehran now records land subsidence of about 31 centimeters per year, the highest in the country, as aquifers are pumped dry.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4248\" data-end=\"4651\">None of these admissions come from opposition media. They are the system talking to itself\u2014and increasingly about itself. A state that once presented itself as the defender of \u201cthe oppressed\u201d now raises fuel prices through fine print, burns dirty fuel to keep power plants running, leaves UNESCO forests to volunteer brigades, and warns that even basic drinking water in major cities may soon be unsafe.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Regime Fears Impending Social Explosion Amid Worsening <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Economic?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Economic<\/a> and Social Crises<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/h9e5afgF4l\">https:\/\/t.co\/h9e5afgF4l<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1896908998789722143?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 4, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4653\" data-end=\"5225\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">The regime can still close schools, deploy police, or temporarily quiet the streets. But it cannot legislate rain, refill aquifers, lower hospital costs, or persuade families that a 5,000-toman fuel tier is a neutral \u201ctechnical adjustment.\u201d This week\u2019s events suggest something beyond ordinary misrule: a government watching the limits of its control come into view, and discovering that it can no longer separate environmental and economic management from the question it fears most\u2014how long people will continue to tolerate a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/how-irans-regime-trades-health-and-welfare-for-self-preservation\/\">system that cannot keep<\/a> the country livable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read The last week of November 2025 exposed something deeper than environmental and economic mismanagement in Iran. Fuel price hikes wrapped in technical language, schools shuttered across 15 provinces [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":307107,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":["post-339850","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-iran-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Crises Converge as the Regime Confronts a Country It Can No Longer Manage - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read The last week of November 2025 exposed something deeper than environmental and economic mismanagement in Iran. 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