{"id":339930,"date":"2025-11-30T11:32:06","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T10:32:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=339930"},"modified":"2025-11-30T11:43:47","modified_gmt":"2025-11-30T10:43:47","slug":"irans-winter-of-smog-and-shortages-deepens-the-regimes-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-winter-of-smog-and-shortages-deepens-the-regimes-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Winter of Smog and Shortages Deepens the Regime\u2019s Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_339931\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-339931\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-339931 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/iran-factory-smog-air-pollution.jpg\" alt=\"Smoke billows from industrial stacks on the outskirts of an Iranian city during a week of hazardous air pollution\" width=\"1000\" height=\"562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/iran-factory-smog-air-pollution.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/iran-factory-smog-air-pollution-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/iran-factory-smog-air-pollution-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/iran-factory-smog-air-pollution-747x420.jpg 747w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/iran-factory-smog-air-pollution-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/iran-factory-smog-air-pollution-696x391.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-339931\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Smoke billows from industrial stacks on the outskirts of an Iranian city during a week of hazardous air pollution<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<article class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none [--shadow-height:45px] has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none has-data-writing-block:-mt-(--shadow-height) has-data-writing-block:pt-(--shadow-height) [&amp;:has([data-writing-block])&gt;*]:pointer-events-auto scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"-1\" data-turn-id=\"request-WEB:80f26966-a19d-436e-ad5f-50316c27e64b-4\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-6\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] thread-sm:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] thread-lg:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] thread-lg:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-1\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"0291cf6e-14a8-4373-98f5-f13e1549d306\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-1\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[1px]\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full break-words light markdown-new-styling\">\n<p data-start=\"69\" data-end=\"718\"><strong><em>Four-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"69\" data-end=\"718\">The final days of November arrived with a bleak panorama across Iran: schools shuttered, civil servants ordered to work remotely, hospital wards filling with respiratory cases, and a gray-brown haze hanging over cities from Tehran to Tabriz. By Saturday, November 29, 2025, officials confirmed that 14 provinces had moved to virtual classes due to either air pollution or influenza surges. What Tehran framed as emergency public-health \u201cadjustments\u201d instead revealed a deeper pattern: a state buckling under the combined weight of environmental collapse, economic paralysis, and political fear.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"720\" data-end=\"1258\">Throughout the first week of Azar, the state-run site <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/926873\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"774\" data-end=\"782\">Fararu<\/em> reported<\/a> that Tehran had become the most polluted city in the world, surpassing Delhi. Anchors on regime television, typically cautious, asked whether the situation had crossed \u201cfrom a manageable problem into a crisis.\u201d On the horizon loomed another destabilizing decision: the launch of a three-tier gasoline pricing plan\u2014the most significant fuel-policy shift since the hikes that helped trigger the nationwide <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iran-protests-2019\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">protests of November 2019<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1260\" data-end=\"1390\">These are not isolated shocks. They are interacting failures that signal a regime rapidly losing its grip on basic governance.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Enters the Ration Economy as Food, Fuel and Medicine Slip Beyond Reach<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LRyoRZz0gv\">https:\/\/t.co\/LRyoRZz0gv<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1988601744969154693?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 12, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1397\" data-end=\"1448\">A Toxic Cloud That Reveals Administrative Decay<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1450\" data-end=\"2136\">The air-quality emergency gripping Iran this month was entirely predictable. Officials have long acknowledged that winter smog worsens when power plants burn mazut, a heavy fuel technically restricted but repeatedly revived whenever gas supplies tighten. On November 26, a deputy health minister admitted that Iran now sees about 58,000 pollution-related deaths annually, based on ministry studies\u2014figures that \u201cno longer require calculation,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/nournews.ir\/fa\/news\/259537\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">he said<\/a>, because the crisis is visible to the naked eye. By the government\u2019s own account\u2014data points that typically understate the gravity of the crisis\u2014Tehran recorded three times as many \u201cunhealthy for all\u201d days as last year.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2138\" data-end=\"2502\">Tehran\u2019s governor, Mohammad-Sadegh <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6669699\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Motamedian, told state TV<\/a> on November 26\u00a0that more than 70% of the capital\u2019s 4.2 million motorcycles are over 20 years old and heavily polluting. He acknowledged that industrial emission metrics relied on \u201ceight-year-old baselines,\u201d an admission that the regulatory system cannot even measure current conditions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2504\" data-end=\"2850\">Meanwhile, ecological stress is advancing on multiple fronts. On November 28, the mayor of Komleh in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6670997\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Langerood confirmed<\/a> that a 15-hectare forest and orchard fire burned across four ignition points. For a region already strained by drought, the damage underscored how environmental threats outpace the state\u2019s emergency capacity.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2852\" data-end=\"3281\">The closures that followed\u2014schools and universities in East and West Azerbaijan, Tehran, Isfahan, Ardabil, Bushehr, Khuzestan, Kurdistan, Gilan, Hamedan, and Kermanshah\u2014illustrated the pattern. The government can shut institutions and advise mask use, but it cannot provide clean air. As one state-linked outlet, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rouydad24.ir\/fa\/news\/437386\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"3166\" data-end=\"3177\">Rouydad24<\/em>, summarized<\/a> on November 27: \u201cFrom Tehran to Khuzestan, people have become victims of mismanagement.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Rationed Water, Three-Tier Gasoline, Prosecutors on Alert: Why <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Tehran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Tehran<\/a> Fears a November Flashpoint<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/1YWsOEjAQs\">https:\/\/t.co\/1YWsOEjAQs<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1989424136868040807?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3288\" data-end=\"3325\">Fuel Hikes and the Shadow Of 2019<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"219\" data-end=\"772\">While pollution choked the cities, another crisis gathered force. Beginning December 6, the government will introduce a <a href=\"https:\/\/iranfocus.com\/economy\/55927-iranian-regime-mp-the-government-no-longer-has-money-to-import-gasoline\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">three-tier gasoline system<\/a>: the long-standing 1,500-toman rationed tier remains; the \u201cstation card\u201d rate jumps from 3,000 to 5,000 tomans; and fully unsubsidized purchases rise to roughly 5,000 tomans per liter. New cars receive no quota, and households with multiple vehicles are restricted to a single fuel card.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"774\" data-end=\"1473\">The warnings from inside the system were immediate, but none of them reflected concern for public welfare. Lawmakers spoke because they fear the street. On November 27, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eghtesadonline.com\/fa\/news\/2102965\/%D8%A8%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%87%D9%85%D9%87%E2%80%8C%DA%86%DB%8C%D8%B2-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%DB%8C%E2%80%8C%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%88%D9%82%E2%80%8C%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%B2%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B4-%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mohammadreza Sabbaghian cautioned<\/a> that raising fuel prices without parallel wage adjustments would \u201chave consequences,\u201d a euphemism for unrest. A day earlier, Bijan Bakhti-Dasgerdi insisted the hike \u201cwill not fix the deficit\u201d and would only \u201cintensify the fire of inflation,\u201d signaling that the political cost could outweigh any fiscal gain. Abdolkarim Agh-Arkakoli was more explicit: \u201cEvery spark can ignite a revolt of the poor.\u201d These are not social-policy arguments; they are warnings from a ruling class worried about its own vulnerability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1475\" data-end=\"1876\">Regime-aligned newspapers amplified the anxiety. <em data-start=\"1524\" data-end=\"1539\">Jahan-e Sanat<\/em> likened the measure to \u201cboiled-frog economics,\u201d predicting a shock that would cascade through food and transport. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ettelaat.com\/news\/124999\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"1654\" data-end=\"1664\">Ettelaat<\/em> invoked<\/a> the memory of the 2019 uprising, noting that even if protests do not initially mirror that scale, persistent pressure on already-struggling households could turn any small trigger into a nationwide flashpoint.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1878\" data-end=\"2130\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">The political physics remain unchanged: fuel is the system\u2019s most combustible commodity. Any retreat broadcasts weakness; any price increase courts revolt. Officials, trapped between those \u201cbad versus worse\u201d options, stall for time\u2014until time runs out.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Water, Fuel and Food Crises Reveal a Regime Out of Options<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HrQZVfjJ3w\">https:\/\/t.co\/HrQZVfjJ3w<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1992262043743797586?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 22, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4819\" data-end=\"4845\">Austerity\u2019s Human Toll<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4847\" data-end=\"5447\">The social consequences of these overlapping crises are increasingly visible. In Khuzestan, two Arab men died by suicide on November 26\u00a0amid severe economic pressure, according to reporting confirmed by Iran International. Twenty-three-year-old Maher Sawari, from Dezful, died just hours before his wedding festivities were to begin. In a nearby village, Zowad Naseri ended his life after prolonged unemployment and inability to support his family. Local monitoring indicates at least nine similar cases in Ahvaz and surrounding towns this year, all tied to extreme financial stress.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5449\" data-end=\"5781\">These deaths do not dominate national headlines, but they expose a grim baseline: millions are living at the edge of economic collapse, with no safety net and few prospects.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5783\" data-end=\"6047\">Even senior regime-aligned economists now warn that the system is approaching rupture. On November 25, <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/CZ8byrJTPeo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Masoud Nili told<\/a> officials that Iran\u2019s economy is \u201cbetween death and survival,\u201d and that decision-making has become \u201cparalyzed\u201d despite the urgency of action.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Is Running Out of Water, Power \u2014 and Patience<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9ZghlJCNpO\">https:\/\/t.co\/9ZghlJCNpO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1955741797516501390?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 13, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6054\" data-end=\"6085\">A State Running Out of Room<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6087\" data-end=\"6526\">This week\u2019s convergence\u2014hazardous smog, a politically explosive fuel hike, widening poverty\u2014offers a sharper picture of a system cornered by its own contradictions. Pollution cannot be reduced without fuel reform; fuel reform cannot proceed without compensation; compensation cannot occur without fiscal capacity the state no longer has. Each crisis traps officials between <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-resistance\/theatrical-strength-cannot-cover-tehrans-fear-of-organized-revolt\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">repression and retreat<\/a>, and neither option stabilizes the system.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6528\" data-end=\"6812\">The clerical dictatorship weathered periods of hardship before. But today\u2019s emergencies are reinforcing one another, eroding stability faster than the state can respond. Tehran can shutter schools, restrict gatherings, and stagger announcements\u2014but these are gestures, not governance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6814\" data-end=\"6915\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">The deeper reckoning remains unresolved, drifting through the air like the smog that refuses to lift.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Four-minute read The final days of November arrived with a bleak panorama across Iran: schools shuttered, civil servants ordered to work remotely, hospital wards filling with respiratory cases, and a [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":339931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":["post-339930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-iran-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Winter of Smog and Shortages Deepens the Regime\u2019s Crisis - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Four-minute read The final days of November arrived with a bleak panorama across Iran: schools shuttered, civil servants ordered to work remotely,\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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