{"id":339945,"date":"2025-11-30T20:29:51","date_gmt":"2025-11-30T19:29:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=339945"},"modified":"2025-11-30T20:29:51","modified_gmt":"2025-11-30T19:29:51","slug":"clerical-regime-in-iran-sees-uprising-everywhere","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-resistance\/clerical-regime-in-iran-sees-uprising-everywhere\/","title":{"rendered":"Clerical Regime in Iran Sees Uprising Everywhere"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_334376\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-334376\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-334376 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Irans-regimes-fears-protests-taking-shape-again.jpg\" alt=\"Iran Protests\" width=\"1000\" height=\"563\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Irans-regimes-fears-protests-taking-shape-again.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Irans-regimes-fears-protests-taking-shape-again-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Irans-regimes-fears-protests-taking-shape-again-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Irans-regimes-fears-protests-taking-shape-again-746x420.jpg 746w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Irans-regimes-fears-protests-taking-shape-again-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Irans-regimes-fears-protests-taking-shape-again-696x392.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-334376\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Protesters clash with security forces in the streets of Iran during the 2022 uprising against the clerical dictatorship<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The last week of November ended with the clerical regime sounding less like a government and more like a shaken security command. Across state outlets, IRGC officials, Friday-prayer clerics, and regime economists described an Iran primed for unrest\u2014and an organized resistance they fear is already inside the country. Their own admissions point to a ruling class bracing for coordinated confrontation, not abstract \u201cforeign plots.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Gasoline Shock<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On November 29, state media ran an unusually blunt warning from Hossein Raghfar, a veteran regime economist who normally shields the system behind technical language. This time he did not. According <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ghatreh.com\/news\/nn14040902335767543808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to his interview<\/a>, the state has raised gasoline prices 15 times, and \u201cnone of them reduced the budget deficit.\u201d Instead, he admitted, the policy has trapped Iran in a \u201cvicious cycle of inflation and deficit.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Raghfar warned that the latest gasoline hike is already generating a \u201cnew wave of social inflammation.\u201d In a society battered by collapsing purchasing power and record price volatility, he said, the public is now \u201cmore inflamed than at any time.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Khamenei\u2019s Friday Leaders Reveal Deepening Fear of the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mojahedineng?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Mojahedineng<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/AbATaTeBED\">https:\/\/t.co\/AbATaTeBED<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1947018713359655359?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Guards Officials Admit What They Previously Denied<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The most revealing remarks came from Brig. Gen. Rasul Sanaei-Rad, political deputy in Khamenei\u2019s Ideological-Political Office\u2014one of the system\u2019s innermost security organs. Speaking on November 27,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ilna.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%DB%8C-3\/1719853-%D8%AF%D8%B4%D9%85%D9%86-%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%BE%D8%B0%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D9%82%D8%AA%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B4%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> he laid out<\/a> the kind of scenario the regime does not mention unless it feels vulnerable.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">He said:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>\u201cThe enemy is still seeking to create unrest in Iran.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cTraining for the formation of armed resistance cells is underway.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cHandguns are entering the country from the west and center into the depth of Iran.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThe scenario ahead is to strike at the main pillar of cohesion.\u201d<\/li>\n<li>\u201cThe enemy is preparing a modern, multi-layered hybrid war, combining AI, soft war, and hard war.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is not routine propaganda. The regime rarely acknowledges domestic, organized threats unless it believes they are real. By speaking of \u201carmed cells,\u201d \u201cinternal traitors,\u201d and \u201cpenetration,\u201d Sanaei-Rad confirmed the security establishment is no longer worried about spontaneous demonstrations alone. It is worried about networks capable of turning social anger into coordinated escalation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Faces Mounting Crisis: Snapback Mechanism Threats, Nationwide Military Alert, and Fear of Uprising<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/RM2d5Gbltz\">https:\/\/t.co\/RM2d5Gbltz<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1960451502885232991?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 26, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Friday Podiums Signal the Same Fear<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The anxiety spilled onto the Friday-prayer circuit. In Shahr-e Kord on November 28, Ali-Asghar <a href=\"https:\/\/defapress.ir\/fa\/news\/795988\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hemmatian said plainly<\/a> that the Basij was created not merely for the Iran\u2013Iraq War but to confront \u201cinternal threats,\u201d naming the \u201cMojahedin-e Khalq\u201d directly. The clarity is striking. For decades, officials avoided public reference to the early-1980s internal conflict except in historical abstractions. Now they are bringing it into present tense.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hemmatian told worshippers that the Basij must remain the nationwide shield the regime can call upon if \u201cinternal threats\u201d reappear. This is not historical reflection\u2014it is mobilization language. When the system re-invokes the founding logic of the Basij, it is preparing its base for civil-conflict scenarios.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Other clerics repeated similar tones. Their message: unity must be preserved not for economic recovery, but for confronting internal adversaries.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The MEK\u2019s Growing Influence Sparks Iran Regime\u2019s Fear and Desperation<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2cUTDRbhXp\">https:\/\/t.co\/2cUTDRbhXp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1661024198054285316?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 23, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">A Small Clash, But A Big Signal<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Then came a telling incident on Friday, November 28. In Qir o Karzin near Shiraz, police and plainclothes forces entered a motorcycle track to confiscate high-cc bikes. What followed\u2014captured in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DRrnWimk9Hp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">circulating videos<\/a>\u2014was not a routine enforcement event. Youths resisted, threw stones, and forced the security forces to retreat. Gunfire was heard; the crowd did not disperse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The scale was local. The symbolism was national.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">A security apparatus confident in its coercive power does not retreat from unarmed civilians. A society waiting for permission to push back does not stand its ground with that speed. For a regime deeply sensitive to early signs of defiance, the Shiraz clash was an unmistakable warning: even small confrontations now carry the mechanics of escalation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> Officials Warn of \u201cLibya Scenario\u201d Amid Deepening Fear of Uprising and Escalating Crackdowns<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/vLWWYwIlap\">https:\/\/t.co\/vLWWYwIlap<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1929243548940968208?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">June 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Convergence the Regime Fears Most<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Across all these statements\u2014Raghfar\u2019s admission of social volatility, Sanaei-Rad\u2019s talk of armed cells, Friday clerics reviving the PMOI frame, and local youths testing the limits of police authority\u2014the regime\u2019s fear converges on one point:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The next unrest may not be spontaneous.<br \/>\nIt may be organized.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Officials are not worried only about inflation or gasoline. Those crises matter because they create combustible conditions. But what truly alarms them is the possibility that anger could be channeled by structured networks with political objectives.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Thus, the new emphasis on \u201chybrid war,\u201d \u201cpenetration,\u201d and \u201cthe main pillar of cohesion.\u201d The system understands that its repression model\u2014designed for disorganized crowds\u2014struggles against coordinated resistance.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And the pattern of recent state messaging shows a regime trying to inoculate itself psychologically. By insisting that unrest is the work of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/ncri-statements\/statement-iran-resistance\/iran-resistance-units-conduct-150-operations-on-cyrus-the-great-day\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u201ctrained cells\u201d<\/a> and \u201cAI-assisted hybrid war,\u201d it prepares its base for a legitimacy crisis: when people rise, it will not be because the system failed, but because \u201cthe enemy\u201d manipulated them.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But beneath the rhetoric, the fear is genuine. The clerical dictatorship senses that another nationwide eruption is looming\u2014one with more cohesion, more coordination, and more political direction than the waves of 2017, 2019, or 2022.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">For a state that has survived by dividing, confusing, and outlasting its challengers, this is the scenario it never wanted to face: a society ready to explode, and a resistance ready to organize the explosion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read The last week of November ended with the clerical regime sounding less like a government and more like a shaken security command. Across state outlets, IRGC officials, Friday-prayer [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":334376,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,9,845],"tags":[130,218],"class_list":{"0":"post-339945","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-resistance","8":"category-iran-protests","9":"category-demonizing-mek","10":"tag-iran-protests","11":"tag-demonizing-mek"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Clerical Regime in Iran Sees Uprising Everywhere - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read The last week of November ended with the clerical regime sounding less like a government and more like a shaken security command. 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