{"id":339988,"date":"2025-12-01T13:45:08","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T12:45:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=339988"},"modified":"2025-12-01T13:48:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T12:48:12","slug":"dry-skies-dirty-air-and-a-sliding-rial-irans-crises-collide-in-early-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/dry-skies-dirty-air-and-a-sliding-rial-irans-crises-collide-in-early-winter\/","title":{"rendered":"Dry Skies, Dirty Air, And A Sliding Rial: Iran\u2019s Crises Collide in Early Winter"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_339989\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-339989\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-339989 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/iran-karkheh-dam-stands-still-01122025.jpg\" alt=\"Reservoir levels at the Karkheh Dam dropped so sharply that its power plant was taken offline \u2014 Khuzestan, December 2025\" width=\"1000\" height=\"566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/iran-karkheh-dam-stands-still-01122025.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/iran-karkheh-dam-stands-still-01122025-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/iran-karkheh-dam-stands-still-01122025-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/iran-karkheh-dam-stands-still-01122025-742x420.jpg 742w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/iran-karkheh-dam-stands-still-01122025-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/iran-karkheh-dam-stands-still-01122025-696x394.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-339989\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Reservoir levels at the Karkheh Dam dropped so sharply that its power plant was taken offline \u2014 Khuzestan, December 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"299\" data-end=\"730\">Iran entered December with an unusual synchrony of disruptions: schools closed across more than a dozen provinces, a major hydropower plant idled, the currency weakening past 116,000 tomans to the dollar, and a senior health official resigning after a bribery allegation. None of these shocks is new on its own\u2014what stands out is how many are hitting at once, and how often the warnings now come from the regime\u2019s own institutions.<\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"732\" data-end=\"777\">One Of the Driest Autumns In 50 Years<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"779\" data-end=\"1262\">On Monday, December 1, Ahad Vazifeh, head of the National Climate and Crisis Management Center, <a href=\"https:\/\/tejaratnews.com\/%D8%AE%D8%B4%DA%A9%D8%AA%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%BE%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%B2-%DB%B5%DB%B0-%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%84-%D8%A7%D8%AE%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D8%AB%D8%A8%D8%AA-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D8%9B-%DA%86%D8%B4%D9%85\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">told state media<\/a> that Iran is experiencing \u201cone of the driest autumns of the past 50 years.\u201d<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"204\" data-end=\"711\">His framing implied an act of nature, but the details he provided pointed to something else: nearly 70 days into the season, vast regions \u201chave not experienced any rainfall\u201d at all\u2014a pattern that experts note has been intensified by decades of misallocated water, exhausted aquifers, and politically driven dam construction.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"987\" data-end=\"1499\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.irna.ir\/news\/86009990\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IRNA confirmed<\/a> the consequences on Monday when it reported that the Karkheh dam\u2019s power plant\u2014touted for years as a triumph of national engineering\u2014has been forced offline because the reservoir now sits roughly 40 meters below its operational level. Only about 1 billion cubic meters of water remain-a shortfall rooted not just in low precipitation but in chronic over-extraction upstream, unregulated agricultural demand, and past political pressure to keep irrigation promises that the river could not support.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Why <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Is Running Out of Water, Power \u2014 and Patience<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9ZghlJCNpO\">https:\/\/t.co\/9ZghlJCNpO<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1955741797516501390?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 13, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1726\" data-end=\"1767\">Smog, Flu, And A Country on Pause<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1769\" data-end=\"2223\">Meanwhile, air pollution and a spreading influenza wave have pushed schools and universities into their ninth consecutive day of closure or remote instruction. By Sunday, November 30, classrooms were shut or online in Tehran, East and West Azerbaijan, Khuzestan, Alborz, Kurdistan, Markazi, Gilan, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Hamedan, Bushehr and Hormozgan. Tehran\u2019s cinemas, galleries and museums were ordered closed on November 30 and December 1.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2225\" data-end=\"2513\">On Monday, <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/928347\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">officials said<\/a> air quality in the capital had reached a \u201csuper-critical\u201d phase. Provinces including Tehran, Hamedan, Semnan, Gilan, Alborz and Qom extended shutdowns into December. In Alborz, government offices were instructed to operate with only one-quarter of staff on site.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2515\" data-end=\"2968\">A new report from the regime\u2019s Environment Organization pointed directly to the fuel mix burned in nearby power plants. According to the agency, sulfur levels in diesel at the Rey, Parand and Montazeri-qaem plants were 120\u2013135 times the legal limit, while mazut emissions at the Rajai plant were <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/fa\/news\/928075\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">592 times above the standard<\/a>. State-aligned ecologist Hossein Akhani said official \u201cinaction\u201d had turned air pollution into \u201ca deadly disaster.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2970\" data-end=\"3229\">Health authorities warned that the flu wave has not peaked. Deputy minister Raisi said infections are \u201cstill rising\u201d and could last until late February or March. Local media in Qom reported that 30\u201340 percent of clinic visits now involve respiratory symptoms.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3231\" data-end=\"3708\">The crisis spilled into parliament. MP Alireza Salimi said \u201cthe breaths of Tehran and many major cities are numbered,\u201d citing official estimates of 58,000 pollution-related deaths and $18 billion in annual losses. Another lawmaker, Fatemeh <a href=\"https:\/\/www.icana.ir\/news\/407704\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mohammad Beigi, said<\/a> 37 percent of Iran\u2019s 35 million vehicles are obsolete and polluting, accusing the government of abandoning a scrappage program despite its documented fuel savings. \u201cPeople are suffocating in environmental pollution,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Air Pollution Linked to Nearly 59,000 Deaths Last Year, Health Ministry Official Says<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/q3ThSmXK15\">https:\/\/t.co\/q3ThSmXK15<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1987918302576836616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 10, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3710\" data-end=\"3773\">A Sliding Rial and Regime&#8217;s Fuel Plan<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3775\" data-end=\"4096\">Economic pressures layered on top of environmental ones. On Sunday, informal market trackers put the dollar at 116,800 tomans and the euro at 135,450 tomans. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irna.ir\/news\/86011125\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">IRNA wrote<\/a> that Tehran\u2019s gold market had a \u201chighly volatile day,\u201d with a full gold coin selling for nearly 123 million tomans after a 2-million-toman jump.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4098\" data-end=\"4503\">Fuel policy added fresh uncertainty. Ghodrati, spokesman of parliament\u2019s budget and planning commission, claimed that the government\u2019s new gasoline pricing plan\u2014including a third, more expensive tier for consumption above 160 liters per month\u2014was adopted \u201cwithout informing or coordinating with the Majles.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4505\" data-end=\"4877\">Even Western media noted that the change \u201ccarries the risk of further public unrest,\u201d drawing a line to previous rounds of fuel protests. Inside Iran, the criticism is less about transparency and more about confusion; officials in the oil ministry have issued contradictory statements on who receives quotas, particularly for new vehicles and dual-fuel cars.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4879\" data-end=\"5232\">At the same time, wage policy is moving against household budgets. The daily <a href=\"https:\/\/ebtekarnews.com\/index.php?newsid=37980\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em data-start=\"4956\" data-end=\"4965\">Ebtekar<\/em> reported<\/a> that the draft budget for Iran&#8217;s new year includes only a 20 percent increase in salaries and pensions\u2014well below inflation on essential goods. Worker and retiree groups, already strained by medical and transport costs, see it as another year of real wage erosion.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Inflation and Exploitation Drive New Wave of Strikes Across <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/HgBZLuBhZj\">https:\/\/t.co\/HgBZLuBhZj<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1994850504963457406?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h3 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6227\" data-end=\"6272\">A State Managing by Interruption<\/h3>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6274\" data-end=\"6623\">Dry skies, dirty air, a weakening currency, improvised fuel policy, an idled dam, and a confluence of intertwined <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/the-iranian-regimes-economic-warfare-creates-a-multi-front-crisis-for-the-people\/\">socio-economic crises<\/a>: the convergence has produced a winter opening in which Iran appears to govern primarily through interruption\u2014shutting schools, throttling power, rotating water supply, issuing last-minute directives, and replacing officials in crisis.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6625\" data-end=\"6929\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Even in official reporting\u2014and even in regime-aligned analysis\u2014the scale of the problems increasingly spills into view. What remains uncertain is whether the state can shift from emergency closures to structural solutions, or whether early winter\u2019s pattern becomes the template for the months ahead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read Iran entered December with an unusual synchrony of disruptions: schools closed across more than a dozen provinces, a major hydropower plant idled, the currency weakening past 116,000 tomans [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":339989,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":{"0":"post-339988","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-economy","8":"tag-iran-economy"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Dry Skies, 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