{"id":340863,"date":"2025-12-26T14:47:15","date_gmt":"2025-12-26T13:47:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=340863"},"modified":"2025-12-26T14:47:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-26T13:47:15","slug":"a-regime-managing-backlash-not-governing-irans-crisis-politics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/a-regime-managing-backlash-not-governing-irans-crisis-politics\/","title":{"rendered":"A Regime Managing Backlash, Not Governing: Iran\u2019s Crisis Politics"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_328301\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-328301\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-328301 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-parliament-majlis-death-to-america-chanting.jpg\" alt=\"iran parliament majlis death to america chanting\" width=\"1000\" height=\"567\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-parliament-majlis-death-to-america-chanting.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-parliament-majlis-death-to-america-chanting-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-parliament-majlis-death-to-america-chanting-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-parliament-majlis-death-to-america-chanting-741x420.jpg 741w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-parliament-majlis-death-to-america-chanting-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/iran-parliament-majlis-death-to-america-chanting-696x395.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-328301\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">File photo: Iranian regime&#8217;s parliament (Majlis) members chanting &#8220;Death to America&#8221; on December 12, 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"67\" data-end=\"584\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"relative basis-auto flex-col -mb-(--composer-overlap-px) [--composer-overlap-px:28px] grow flex\">\n<div class=\"flex flex-col text-sm pb-25\">\n<article class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none [--shadow-height:45px] has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none has-data-writing-block:-mt-(--shadow-height) has-data-writing-block:pt-(--shadow-height) [&amp;:has([data-writing-block])&gt;*]:pointer-events-auto scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"-1\" data-turn-id=\"request-WEB:89a2eabb-c126-47c3-829f-2fa89349c5db-8\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-16\" data-scroll-anchor=\"true\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-10 [--thread-content-margin:--spacing(4)] @w-sm\/main:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(6)] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-margin:--spacing(16)] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\" tabindex=\"-1\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-1\" dir=\"auto\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"63c9a8ae-ae62-459b-bfa5-c4f83916287c\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-2-thinking\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden first:pt-[1px]\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert w-full break-words light markdown-new-styling\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"382\" data-end=\"769\">As Iran ends 2025, the clearest through-line in regime-aligned reporting is that officials increasingly describe economic policy not in terms of welfare, but in terms of preventing unrest. The language of \u201csocial\u201d and \u201csecurity\u201d fallout has become the regime\u2019s shorthand for fear of public reaction\u2014an implicit admission that stability is at risk and the street is the real opposition.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"771\" data-end=\"1132\">That anxiety surfaced openly in parliament. On December 24, 2025, a letter<a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404100302237\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> signed by 171 MPs warned<\/a> that holding wage growth at 20%\u2014while inflation is far higher\u2014has pushed salaried households to a breaking point and could trigger \u201csocial and security crises.\u201d This is not an opposition claim; it is insiders warning the state that it is manufacturing instability.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"305\">Budget credibility is also collapsing inside the system. Reporting citing the Majlis Research Center has discussed a large \u201cunfinanced\u201d deficit in 2025 and the risk of a wider gap if spending is not controlled\u2014while the executive insists the next budget can meet targets without destabilizing shortfalls. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/news\/1404100201386\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports in late December 2025<\/a> also highlighted that the state is leaning harder on taxation and other domestic revenue channels, signaling that citizens are treated as the shock absorber.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> faces a winter of crises: Deadly floods in the south kill at least seven, inflation drives up food and medicine costs, corruption diverts billions, amid elite infighting and blame game. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WhuMjxTIp3\">https:\/\/t.co\/WhuMjxTIp3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2002787863059140882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 21, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1662\" data-end=\"1704\">Subsidies, fuel and a two-tier economy<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1706\" data-end=\"2070\">The pressure is already being shifted onto households through welfare tightening. State media reporting has carried the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rouydad24.ir\/fa\/news\/440883\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Labor Minister\u2019s remarks<\/a> about removing subsidies for millions under revised criteria\u2014an approach that may relieve the treasury but intensifies resentment, because it is perceived as opaque, arbitrary, and punitive in a high-inflation environment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2072\" data-end=\"2630\">Fuel policy shows the same governing instinct: test how much pain society will tolerate, then manage the backlash. On December 25, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1126795\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iranian outlets reported<\/a> the rollout of imported \u201csuper\u201d gasoline in Tehran through limited distribution, including mobile fuel tankers, sold outside the subsidized system. Reports noted the final consumer price was not clearly announced at rollout and estimated it could exceed 70,000 tomans per liter once costs and VAT are included\u2014signaling a controlled move toward market pricing in a politically explosive sector.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2632\" data-end=\"2995\">This is not merely an energy story; it is a social stratification policy. A parallel market for premium fuel effectively formalizes a two-tier economy\u2014subsidized scarcity for the majority and pay-to-access reliability for those with money\u2014while the state tries to insulate itself from the political consequences by presenting the change as limited and \u201cmanaged.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Sinking State: <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Winter of Converging Crises<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/B7d40XIcxo\">https:\/\/t.co\/B7d40XIcxo<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2001638914063503455?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 18, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2997\" data-end=\"3050\">State capacity failures: water, health, medicines<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3052\" data-end=\"3542\">Even the regime&#8217;s president has described governance as a machine that makes problems worse. State reporting quoted Masoud <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mehrnews.com\/news\/6699666\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pezeshkian telling parliament<\/a> that Iran\u2019s water situation is \u201ccritical,\u201d that most provinces face shortages, and that repeated laws and interventions have failed to reverse the trend. He described emergency transfers of water that reduce supply elsewhere\u2014an admission that the state is not solving scarcity but reallocating it, creating new losers with every \u201cfix.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3544\" data-end=\"3997\">Public health statistics reported inside Iran reinforce the picture of preventable harm in a weakened state. <a href=\"https:\/\/inn.ir\/news\/article\/137414\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iran Online reported<\/a> Health Ministry-linked figures describing about 150,000 burn incidents per year, 25,000\u201328,000 hospitalizations, and roughly 3,000 deaths, alongside severe workplace hazards.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3999\" data-end=\"4571\">Medicine supply is another high-risk trigger because it turns macro dysfunction into immediate, personal crisis. On December 26, 2025, MP Mohammad <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ilna.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C-5\/1732068-%D9%88%D8%A7%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%B4-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%A7%DA%86%D8%A7%D9%82-%DA%AF%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%87-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%88%DB%8C-%D8%A7%DB%8C%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%81%D8%BA%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jamalian warned in ILNA<\/a> that drug shortages are \u201creal,\u201d and that if the Central Bank fails to provide foreign currency on time, shortages could expand to 400\u2013500 items by year-end. He linked the crisis to delayed FX allocation, heavy sector debts, disrupted inputs, and heightened vulnerability for specialized and oncology medicines\u2014precisely the categories that generate fear, anger, and political volatility when they vanish.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Currency Breaks Records as Water Crisis, Toxic Air and Parliamentary Infighting Signal a System Under Strain<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DckQnOHn0e\">https:\/\/t.co\/DckQnOHn0e<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1997957243111719366?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4573\" data-end=\"4632\">Continued infighting<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5117\" data-end=\"5586\">Inside the regime, the fear of public reaction is increasingly explicit. On December 24, MP Mohammad-Mehdi <a href=\"https:\/\/borna.news\/fa\/news\/2295006\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Shahriari urged top security<\/a> bodies to \u201chear the people before it is too late,\u201d linking inflation, pensioner hardship, and agricultural stress to potential destabilization. The framing is revealing: even when insiders acknowledge suffering, their dominant concern is the risk it poses to the clerical rule, not the obligation to protect citizens.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5588\" data-end=\"6241\">Put together, the year-end overview is not a single <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-polycrisis-a-regime-entrapped-by-a-convergence-of-failures\/\">crisis but a convergence<\/a>: a budget that insiders warn could create \u201csecurity\u201d shocks, welfare tightening that breeds resentment, fuel market segmentation that institutionalizes inequality, a water emergency the president says is worsening, health and safety harms on a mass scale, and medicine shortages tied to currency and mismanagement. The clerical state\u2019s response pattern\u2014extract, ration, deny, and manage backlash\u2014keeps the system upright in the short term while increasing the probability that accumulated grievances ignite into the unrest the regime\u2019s own officials keep signaling they fear.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read As Iran ends 2025, the clearest through-line in regime-aligned reporting is that officials increasingly describe economic policy not in terms of welfare, but in terms of preventing unrest. [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":328301,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11,10],"tags":[269,5415],"class_list":{"0":"post-340863","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-society","8":"category-economy","9":"tag-iran-economy","10":"tag-iran-society"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Regime Managing Backlash, Not Governing: Iran\u2019s Crisis Politics - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read As Iran ends 2025, the clearest through-line in regime-aligned reporting is that officials increasingly describe economic policy not in\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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