{"id":343886,"date":"2026-03-29T17:47:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-29T16:47:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=343886"},"modified":"2026-03-29T17:59:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-29T16:59:12","slug":"why-irans-next-uprising-is-building-beneath-the-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/why-irans-next-uprising-is-building-beneath-the-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Iran’s Next Uprising Is Building Beneath the War"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Feb.
Feb. 17, 2026 \u2014 Najafabad, Isfahan Province: On the 40th day since the uprising\u2019s dead, mourners gather to honor them and renew demands for accountability<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u00a0Four-minute read<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

A Silence Imposed by War<\/h2>\n

Iran today may appear quieter than during previous waves of protests, but this quiet is neither organic nor durable. It is imposed by war. Under conditions of aerial bombardment and heightened military alert, the basic mechanics of protest collapse. Civilians avoid gathering not out of consent, but because proximity to state facilities\u2014often targets\u2014carries mortal risk. At the same time, the state\u2019s security apparatus operates with expanded latitude<\/a>: dissent is more easily framed as collaboration with foreign enemies, and security forces, alongside aligned militias, respond with force that is both immediate and less restrained.<\/p>\n

This creates a forced stillness. It is not that grievances have diminished; it is that the cost of expressing them has sharply increased. Society is not stabilizing\u2014it is compressing.<\/p>\n

Economic Breakdown at the Household Level<\/h2>\n

Beneath this enforced calm lies an economy that has become structurally unsustainable for large segments of the population. Inflation has remained persistently elevated, with official rates around 40\u201345% through 2025, while food inflation has surged to approximately 70% year-on-year in several reporting periods. These figures are critical because food constitutes a disproportionate share of household expenditure for lower- and middle-income families.<\/p>\n

The national currency has deteriorated dramatically, reaching roughly 1.4 to 1.45 million rials per US dollar by late 2025, representing a loss of more than half its value within a year. This has cascading effects: imports become prohibitively expensive, domestic production costs rise, and price volatility becomes entrenched.<\/p>\n

Wages have not kept pace. Official minimum wage adjustments have lagged far behind inflation<\/a>, covering only about 25\u201330% of estimated living costs. In practical terms, a full-time worker can no longer secure basic subsistence through formal employment alone. This is the defining feature of Iran\u2019s current economic condition: the normalization of the working poor.<\/p>\n

Unemployment figures, often cited at around 7\u20138% officially, obscure deeper structural issues. Youth unemployment remains significantly higher\u201415\u201320% overall, and up to 30\u201335% among young women\u2014while labor force participation hovers near 40\u201341%, reflecting widespread discouragement and withdrawal from the formal economy<\/a>. It is obvious that the war has only worsened this situation.<\/p>\n

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A Nation on the Brink: #Iran<\/a>\u2019s Economy Nears Total Breakdownhttps:\/\/t.co\/vGWSKMuzub<\/a><\/p>\n

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 9, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n