{"id":344169,"date":"2026-04-08T17:08:09","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T16:08:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=344169"},"modified":"2026-04-08T17:08:09","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T16:08:09","slug":"the-duel-of-desperation-how-irans-clerical-regime-and-monarchists-both-squandered-the-2026-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/the-duel-of-desperation-how-irans-clerical-regime-and-monarchists-both-squandered-the-2026-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"The Duel of Desperation: How Iran&#8217;s Clerical Regime and Monarchists Both Squandered the 2026 Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-344170 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/crown-turban-devestation-iran.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1000\" height=\"562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/crown-turban-devestation-iran.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/crown-turban-devestation-iran-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/crown-turban-devestation-iran-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/crown-turban-devestation-iran-747x420.jpg 747w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/crown-turban-devestation-iran-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/crown-turban-devestation-iran-696x391.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"324\" data-end=\"343\"><strong><em data-start=\"324\" data-end=\"343\">Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"345\" data-end=\"642\">The 2026 Iran war, which erupted on 28 February and ended in the fragile <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Islamabad Accords<\/span><\/span> of early April, laid bare a stark reality: Iran\u2019s two most visible contenders for power are united not by vision, but by their willingness to sacrifice the country itself to secure rule.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"644\" data-end=\"997\">On one side, the clerical establishment demonstrated\u2014yet again\u2014that its only guiding principle is survival at any cost. On the other, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-news-state-run-newspaper-says-reza-pahlavi-and-monarchists-have-served-clerical-regime\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Reza Pahlavi<\/span><\/span><\/a> and his monarchist camp showed that their path to power rests not on Iranian society, but on foreign military force\u2014even at the cost of the country\u2019s total destruction, including its infrastructure and its people.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"999\" data-end=\"1093\">Neither represents a viable future. Both are prepared to see Iran burn to rule over its ashes.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Welcoming the ceasefire and expressing hope that it will lead to the end of the war and pave the way for peace and freedom.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XXyjgE2TdR\">https:\/\/t.co\/XXyjgE2TdR<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rBsOih4c9u\">pic.twitter.com\/rBsOih4c9u<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Maryam Rajavi (@Maryam_Rajavi) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Maryam_Rajavi\/status\/2041700308431122844?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 8, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-section-id=\"mk9rao\" data-start=\"1095\" data-end=\"1139\">The Clerical Regime: Survival at Any Cost<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The rapid appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader following his father\u2019s assassination on day one of the war confirms what the Iranian Resistance had warned against: the &#8220;Clerical regime&#8221; is dead. By bypassing clerical meritocracy for hereditary succession, the regime has effectively become the very thing it claimed to overthrow in 1979\u2014a dynastic autocracy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1439\" data-end=\"1742\">Under Mojtaba, the <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps<\/span><\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2026\/03\/16\/iran-regime-intelligence-irgc-war\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">consolidated control<\/a>, formalizing a system long dominated by security institutions. But the war\u2019s real significance lies in how the regime performed across three critical arenas: domestic stability, regional influence, and international standing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1744\" data-end=\"2247\">Domestically, the regime emerged significantly weaker. The war exposed its inability to defend national airspace, protect infrastructure, or shield the population from widespread disruption. Public anger\u2014already deep after years of repression\u2014has intensified. Not because expectations were newly broken, but because the regime once again demonstrated that the population\u2019s welfare plays no role in its decision-making. Its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/shelters-for-bombs-not-for-people-a-regime-that-prioritizes-its-survival-over-peoples-protection\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">priority remained<\/a> unchanged: survival, even at the cost of national devastation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;The regime did not pick <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Mojtaba_Khamenei?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Mojtaba_Khamenei<\/a> in spite of his security face. It picked him because of it. His notoriety, far from disqualifying him inside the ruling core, made him useful: he is legible to the regime\u2019s own forces as a continuity candidate who will neither surrender\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2031052207068475810?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2249\" data-end=\"2625\">Regionally, Iran\u2019s position deteriorated sharply. The attempt to weaponize the <span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Strait of Hormuz<\/span><\/span> failed to produce leverage and instead reinforced the perception among neighboring states that the regime is a source of instability that cannot be contained through engagement. The <a href=\"https:\/\/english.alarabiya.net\/views\/2026\/04\/07\/iran-is-more-of-an-enemy-to-arabs-than-to-the-gulf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">war accelerated<\/a> a shift toward distancing and containment by regional actors.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2627\" data-end=\"2925\">Internationally, the regime exited the conflict more isolated than before. Its inability to convert escalation into concessions, combined with the visible degradation of its military capabilities, weakened both deterrence and diplomatic leverage. The war did not strengthen its hand\u2014it narrowed it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2927\" data-end=\"3261\">Yet across all three arenas, one pattern remained constant: none of these costs altered the regime\u2019s behavior. Economic contraction, infrastructure damage, and strategic setbacks did not trigger recalibration. The system demonstrated that it is structurally prepared to absorb national damage as long as its own survival is preserved.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3263\" data-end=\"3352\">The regime is weaker in every measurable dimension\u2014even in its determination to endure.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The clerical dictatorship is again doing to the world economy what it has done for decades to people, governments and entire societies: taking hostages.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranWar%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar\u200c<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LiXkqu7QaH\">https:\/\/t.co\/LiXkqu7QaH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2036881642409660749?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 25, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-section-id=\"wmym24\" data-start=\"2845\" data-end=\"2886\">Monarchists: Power Through Destruction<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2888\" data-end=\"3090\">If the regime revealed its willingness to destroy the country to stay in power, the monarchist camp revealed something equally stark: a willingness to see that destruction happen in order to take power.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3092\" data-end=\"3373\"><a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2026\/01\/23\/world\/video\/iran-united-states-airstrikes-lead-jake-tapper\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Reza Pahlavi<\/span><\/span><\/a> and his supporters&#8217; <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/PahlaviReza\/status\/2030962538700288351\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">position reflect<\/a> a long-standing pattern\u2014reliance on foreign force as the primary driver of political change, echoing the dependency that defined the final years of the Pahlavi monarchy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3375\" data-end=\"3843\">Throughout the conflict,<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SGhasseminejad\/status\/2041654326209212864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a0this camp<\/a> openly welcomed and encouraged the strikes. More strikingly, they went further\u2014explicitly calling for the targeting of Iran\u2019s infrastructure as a means to weaken the regime. Statements from prominent monarchist voices, including figures such as <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/SGhasseminejad\/status\/2041515361330246079\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span class=\"hover:entity-accent entity-underline inline cursor-pointer align-baseline\"><span class=\"whitespace-normal\">Saeed Ghasseminejad<\/span><\/span><\/a>, Reza Pahlavi&#8217;s key man reflected a readiness to escalate pressure even when it meant deepening the country\u2019s economic and social collapse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"3845\" data-end=\"4011\">This is the critical point: for this camp, the destruction of infrastructure was not an unintended consequence\u2014it was framed as a necessary step toward regime change.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> News: State-Run Newspaper Says Reza Pahlavi and Monarchists Have Served Clerical Regime<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iey2VpMKXU\">https:\/\/t.co\/iey2VpMKXU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1909716637831278756?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 8, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4013\" data-end=\"4291\">At the same time, claims of internal support collapsed under scrutiny. Assertions that tens of <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/nikahang\/status\/2014941487201399211\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">thousands of military<\/a> or security personnel were prepared to defect never materialized. No organized network\u2014from labor unions to student groups\u2014mobilized under monarchist leadership.<\/p>\n<p>The issue goes beyond a lack of organization. There is no evidence of even an unstructured social base inside Iran willing to rally behind this project. The movement remains overwhelmingly external\u2014visible in media, but absent on the ground. What amplified Reza Pahlavi\u2019s name in Western media and across social media was not genuine popular momentum, but false advertising and propaganda.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"The Big Lie: &ldquo;Iranians Support the Return of the Monarchy&rdquo;\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_aL8cmpj2qRw\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FaL8cmpj2qRw%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/aL8cmpj2qRw\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT4M36S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-04-07T16:01:31Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_aL8cmpj2qRw\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FaL8cmpj2qRw%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">The Big Lie: \u201cIranians Support the Return of the Monarchy\u201d<\/div><\/div><div class=\"play\"><\/div><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/aL8cmpj2qRw\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FaL8cmpj2qRw%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"The Big Lie: &ldquo;Iranians Support the Return of the Monarchy&rdquo;\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"The Big Lie: \u201cIranians Support the Return of the Monarchy\u201d\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4542\" data-end=\"4804\">This disconnect is compounded by internal behavior that further alienates potential allies: harassment campaigns, fragmentation, and hostility toward other dissidents.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"4806\" data-end=\"4995\">The result is a political current that seeks power without the foundational elements required to sustain it: neither grassroots legitimacy nor institutional presence\u2014only external leverage.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-section-id=\"2xgjc0\" data-start=\"4997\" data-end=\"5034\">A Shared Logic: Power Over Country<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"5385\" data-end=\"5558\">Despite their rhetoric, both camps converge on a shared logic: the pursuit of power justifies the acceptance\u2014even the encouragement\u2014of national destruction.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6212\" data-end=\"6560\">This has immediate consequences. The war has further stripped away lingering illusions about the Pahlavi camp, exposing a political current willing to see the country\u2019s infrastructure destroyed and its people pushed to the brink in pursuit of power. Rather than expanding its appeal, this has deepened public distrust and will likely accelerate the distancing of a population unwilling to rally behind a figure perceived as seeking the throne at any cost.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"6212\" data-end=\"6560\">In this context, the trajectory becomes clearer: more Iranians will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-resistance\/demonizing-mek\/who-represents-the-people-of-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">gravitate toward movements<\/a> that prioritize the country\u2019s interests over personal ambition\u2014forces that offer not rhetoric or dependency on foreign intervention, but a credible, internally rooted path to real regime change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read The 2026 Iran war, which erupted on 28 February and ended in the fragile Islamabad Accords of early April, laid bare a stark reality: Iran&rsquo;s two most visible [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":344170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19,5499],"tags":[5500],"class_list":{"0":"post-344169","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-terrorism-a-fundamentalism","8":"category-fake-opposition","9":"tag-fake-opposition"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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