{"id":344189,"date":"2026-04-09T14:50:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T13:50:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=344189"},"modified":"2026-04-09T14:50:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-09T13:50:31","slug":"the-end-of-the-war-will-be-deadly-for-the-iranian-regime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/the-end-of-the-war-will-be-deadly-for-the-iranian-regime\/","title":{"rendered":"The End of the War Will Be Deadly for the Iranian Regime\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_342801\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-342801\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-342801 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/f579c7a3-c914-4672-9dab-50d40fecb98f_690.jpg\" alt=\"Iran nationwide uprising, January 2026\" width=\"1000\" height=\"566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/f579c7a3-c914-4672-9dab-50d40fecb98f_690.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/f579c7a3-c914-4672-9dab-50d40fecb98f_690-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/f579c7a3-c914-4672-9dab-50d40fecb98f_690-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/f579c7a3-c914-4672-9dab-50d40fecb98f_690-742x420.jpg 742w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/f579c7a3-c914-4672-9dab-50d40fecb98f_690-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/f579c7a3-c914-4672-9dab-50d40fecb98f_690-696x394.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-342801\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Iran nationwide uprising, January 2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Three-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In the controlled echo chambers of state television and the filtered feeds reserved for the regime\u2019s loyalists\u2014those with pristine <a href=\"https:\/\/english.aawsat.com\/world\/5216154-iran-accused-%E2%80%98digital-apartheid%E2%80%99\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">white SIM cards<\/a> and privileged access to the outside world\u2014Iran\u2019s clerical establishment is staging a meticulous theater of survival. Forty-day mourning rites for a slain Supreme Leader, once the singular vortex of military and political power, are broadcast as rituals of unbreakable continuity. Pundits parse the\u00a0state\u2019s triumph over \u201cthe greatest assault of the century.\u201d Generals vow a crushing reply to alleged violations in Lebanon. The Spanish embassy reopens with fanfare, as if diplomacy were merely paused for a summer storm. <a href=\"https:\/\/ana.ir\/fa\/news\/1046852\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Military\u00a0spokesmen\u00a0insist<\/a> the ceasefire was accepted on Tehran\u2019s terms; provincial governors promise swift reconstruction of shattered infrastructure. The message is layered, insistent, almost incantatory: We endure. The world could not finish us. Pay no attention to the fissures beneath the victory banners.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is a bravado born of desperation.\u00a0The\u00a0clerical dictatorship\u00a0has always understood that the end of crisis is the beginning of its own unmaking. For forty-five years the regime has thrived on perpetual emergency\u2014war with Iraq, sanctions, proxy battles, nuclear standoffs\u2014each one\u00a0furnishing\u00a0the alibi for repression, the justification for economic plunder, the rationale for silencing dissent. Remove the alibi and the machinery of control stands suddenly naked.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;The 2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranWar%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar\u200c<\/a>, which erupted on 28 February and ended in the fragile Islamabad Accords of early April, laid bare a stark reality: Iran\u2019s two most visible contenders for power are united not by vision, but by their willingness to sacrifice the country itself to secure rule,&quot;\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2041915971829485830?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 8, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Weakened leadership<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The contrast with the revolution\u2019s founding moment is stark. Ruhollah Khomeini did not merely lead the 1979 upheaval; he absorbed its entire moral capital. He was its theologian, its warlord, its living constitution. Legitimacy, religious charisma, political hegemony\u2014all flowed through a single man. His successor, Ali Khamenei, never commanded that kind of awe. By the 1990s the regime had already been forced to institutionalize its own fractures, tolerating rival factions under the thin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/peeling-back-the-layers-irans-regime-terrorism-and-the-mirage-of-moderation\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">veneer of \u201creform.\u201d<\/a> The gesture was\u00a0merely\u00a0cosmetic, aimed at Western\u00a0audiences\u00a0hungry for signs of moderation, but it also reflected a deeper truth: the system had split along fault lines of ideology, interest, and sheer exhaustion. What began as revolutionary unity had hardened into managed schizophrenia.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Now another succession unfolds in the shadow of fresh graves. <a href=\"https:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/what-we-know-about-irans-new-supreme-leader-mojtaba-khamenei-and-why-his-appointment-doesnt-bode-well-for-peace-13516124\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mojtaba Khamenei,<\/a> elevated beneath the smoke of war, may enjoy the loyalty of the Revolutionary Guards and certain entrenched patronage networks. Yet patronage is\u00a0not the same as\u00a0consolidation. The contradictions the conflict papered over\u2014between factions, between generations, between the state and the society it claims to embody\u2014will not remain under the rug once the bombs stop falling. They will push upward like roots cracking pavement.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;In a clear sign of weakness, Iran\u2019s regime has ramped up its use of foreign Shia militias and even child recruits to suppress domestic unrest, exposing the fragile state of its own security apparatus,&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HakamianMahmoud?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@HakamianMahmoud<\/a> writes. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranWar%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar\u200c<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/iYNH4Xg7hS\">https:\/\/t.co\/iYNH4Xg7hS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2041250842800734480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 6, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Explosive society<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">And\u00a0the society\u00a0is waiting. Millions of Iranians have lived for years under the compounding weight of inflation that devours salaries, blackouts that turn summer nights into saunas, water shortages that turn once-fertile fields to dust, and fuel lines that stretch like accusations.\u00a0The war did not alleviate any of these afflictions; it intensified them.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Infrastructure damaged by precision strikes will take years and billions to repair\u2014money\u00a0the treasury, already strained by <a href=\"https:\/\/alhurra.com\/en\/15108\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">years of mismanagement<\/a> and\u00a0corruption, does not\u00a0possess. Every unrepaired bridge, every darkened neighborhood, every empty reservoir will serve as a mute indictment of a\u00a0state\u00a0that chose confrontation over competence.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Then there is the internet. For\u00a0months\u00a0the regime throttled, filtered, and severed the country\u2019s digital arteries, citing national security. The cost to small businesses, to families separated by exile, to an entire generation that lives half\u00a0its\u00a0life online, has been incalculable. That cost cannot be sustained indefinitely. When the connections are restored\u2014as they must be\u2014the accumulated grievances will not trickle out; they will surge.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Iranians have spent the war years watching, recording, and remembering: the conscript sons sent to die in someone else\u2019s proxy fight, the mothers mourning in silence, the fathers bartering dignity for bread. The\u00a0regime\u2019s\u00a0propaganda may still command the\u00a0state\u00a0channels, but it cannot command memory.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;Every execution, every checkpoint, every forced rally, every hysterical warning that \u201cthe streets must not be empty\u201d is a scream of terror from a dying dictatorship. If it were not afraid of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranProtests?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranProtests<\/a>, it would not need to kill Amirhossein Hatami today,&quot; writes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SaforaSM?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@SaforaSM<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2039734107551289573?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Back to the streets<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Most dangerously for the authorities, the war has delivered an unambiguous lesson to the Iranian street. The world\u2019s most advanced militaries\u00a0demonstrated\u00a0that they could bloody the regime, degrade its assets, expose its vulnerabilities. Yet the deeper deliverance\u2014the removal of the men who have <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amnesty.org\/en\/latest\/campaigns\/2026\/01\/what-happened-at-the-protests-in-iran\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">killed their children<\/a>, imprisoned their sisters, humiliated their brothers\u2014cannot be outsourced. That realization is corrosive to any dictatorship. It shifts the burden of agency back onto the people themselves.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Therefore, on the morning after the ceasefire, every exhausted and exasperated mind, long numbed by the present order, will turn instinctively toward the search for real change and the practical means to bring this regime to an end.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">That path will not be found among the sham opposition groups that dressed foreign strikes in the language of \u201crescue operations\u201d and peddled <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/ShirinNariman\/status\/2017089976836489636\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fantasies of 160,000 soldiers<\/a> and\u00a0policemen\u00a0defecting overnight. Real transformation will begin, as it always has, in the neighborhoods, the universities, and the bazaars\u2014quiet, determined, and impossible to outsource. The regime may still cling to its slogans and its surveillance, but the arithmetic\u00a0of survival has shifted. Every day without an external enemy is now a day when\u00a0the internal\u00a0contradictions must be faced. The house that perpetual war built cannot stand in peace.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read&nbsp; In the controlled echo chambers of state television and the filtered feeds reserved for the regime&rsquo;s loyalists&mdash;those with pristine white SIM cards and privileged access to the outside [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":53,"featured_media":342801,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,19],"tags":[130,287],"class_list":{"0":"post-344189","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-protests","8":"category-terrorism-a-fundamentalism","9":"tag-iran-protests","10":"tag-iran-terrorism"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ 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