{"id":345106,"date":"2026-05-16T17:45:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T16:45:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=345106"},"modified":"2026-05-16T18:13:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T17:13:34","slug":"iranian-regime-factions-clash-over-survival-strategy-as-nuclear-talks-stall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iranian-regime-factions-clash-over-survival-strategy-as-nuclear-talks-stall\/","title":{"rendered":"Iranian Regime Factions Clash Over Survival Strategy as Nuclear Talks Stall"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_326332\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-326332\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-326332 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/iran-majlis-mohammad-javad-zarif-hamid-rasaee.jpg\" alt=\"Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif clashes with hardline MP Hamid Rasaee during a heated debate in Iran\u2019s parliament\" width=\"1000\" height=\"566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/iran-majlis-mohammad-javad-zarif-hamid-rasaee.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/iran-majlis-mohammad-javad-zarif-hamid-rasaee-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/iran-majlis-mohammad-javad-zarif-hamid-rasaee-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/iran-majlis-mohammad-javad-zarif-hamid-rasaee-742x420.jpg 742w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/iran-majlis-mohammad-javad-zarif-hamid-rasaee-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/iran-majlis-mohammad-javad-zarif-hamid-rasaee-696x394.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-326332\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">File photo: Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif clashes with hardline MP Hamid Rasaee during a heated debate in Iran\u2019s parliament<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest infighting inside Tehran is no longer a routine dispute between \u201chardliners\u201d and \u201cmoderates.\u201d It reflects a deeper struggle between rival camps advancing competing survival strategies for the regime amid nuclear deadlock, economic crisis, and fears of social explosion.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One faction \u2014 centered around ideological hardliners and elements closely tied to the system\u2019s security apparatus \u2014 fears that negotiations with the United States will inevitably lead to concessions and eventual submission. From their perspective, any retreat in the nuclear file or regional posture would shatter what remains of morale inside the regime\u2019s security forces, proxy networks, and already demoralized ideological base.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The opposing camp, increasingly composed not only of traditional revisionists but also figures long associated with Ali Khamenei himself, argues that refusing compromise could trigger something even more dangerous: war, maritime strangulation, economic collapse, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ultimately nationwide uprising<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran\u2019s regime, militarily degraded after <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranWar%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar\u200c<\/a> and confronting economic collapse, drought and a nationwide internet blackout, is relying almost entirely on psychological warfare and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/propaganda?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#propaganda<\/a> to project strength and buy time, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/shahriarkia?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@shahriarkia<\/a> writes.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ozRu1iOhnp\">https:\/\/t.co\/ozRu1iOhnp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2055361346540081188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 15, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Araghchi Admits Nuclear Deadlock<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This strategic divide surfaced publicly after regime Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi acknowledged on May 15, 2026, in New Delhi that talks with Washington over enriched uranium had reached \u201calmost a deadlock.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the state-run outlet <em>Tabnak<\/em> on Friday, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tabnak.ir\/fa\/news\/1372835\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Araghchi admitted<\/a>: \u201cThe issue of our enriched materials is extremely complicated and we have almost reached a deadlock with the Americans on this particular issue.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The statement was more than a diplomatic update. It was effectively an admission that Tehran remains trapped between two existential fears: concessions that may signal weakness internally, or confrontation that may accelerate collapse externally.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;The infighting is taking place while the regime hasn\u2019t decided about the course\u2014concession or going to <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranWar%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar\u200c<\/a>. Once the final decision is made, a major fracture is expected to weaken the regime severely, exposing it to the outburst of social anger that is witnessing these\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2054199414214828043?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Fear of Weakness and Collapse<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"117\" data-end=\"909\">For the regime\u2019s hard core, the danger lies in appearing weak. Figures associated with the Paydari current increasingly portray negotiations as a pathway toward internal erosion similar to what they believe followed the 2015 nuclear deal. Despite years of bold rhetoric, anti-American messaging, and claims of strategic independence, the regime\u2019s leadership is now compelled to sit across from what it internally describes as the \u201ckillers of the martyred leader\u201d and representatives of the same powers it accuses of targeting its highest military ranks and frontline security personnel.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"911\" data-end=\"1064\">On May 14, MP <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1163057\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hamid Rasaee openly warned<\/a> that parliament had effectively been shut down to prevent lawmakers from obstructing \u201congoing negotiations with the enemy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"1066\" data-end=\"1367\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">Rasaee revealed that the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council had allegedly stated \u201cit is not expedient for parliament sessions to be held.\u201d He claimed the goal was to stop parliamentary \u201cwarnings and oversight\u201d from interfering with negotiations.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;History suggests that mass repression can suppress symptoms without resolving causes. None of the structural grievances that fueled the uprisings since 2017 have disappeared. Instead, they have accumulated,&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MehdiOghbai?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MehdiOghbai<\/a> writes on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranRevolution2026%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranRevolution2026\u200c<\/a>.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Fvoi43hUPl\">https:\/\/t.co\/Fvoi43hUPl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2053189179308171714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 9, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Parliament Shutdown Exposes Regime Anxiety<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The closure of parliament for more than two months has become a symbol of the regime\u2019s broader internal paralysis.\u00a0Rasaei argued that secrecy serves only one purpose: preventing regime supporters from realizing the scale of potential concessions. Earlier this month, he attacked the \u201cconfidential\u201d nature of Tehran\u2019s proposals to Washington, arguing that \u201cthe enemy knows everything, but the people and even parliament representatives do not.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">MP Amirhossein <a href=\"https:\/\/farsnews.ir\/TasnimNew\/1778766580866412998\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sabeti echoed<\/a> those concerns, demanding &#8220;transparency&#8221; from Araghchi and warning against another hidden compromise. \u201cThe condition for trust is transparency and honesty with the people,\u201d he declared during public gatherings.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;Iranian state media and insiders reveal a regime that possesses no real internal strength, economic resilience, social capital, or diplomatic cards left to play. It is openly counting on political turmoil inside the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/UnitedStates?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#UnitedStates<\/a> and the global headache of disrupted shipping and\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2051345259305615620?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 4, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-section-id=\"xpmvw5\" data-start=\"640\" data-end=\"696\">Revisionists and Security Fears Over Social Explosion<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"698\" data-end=\"1088\">The other camp\u2019s calculation is shaped less by moderate tendencies and more by the fear that prolonged pressure \u2014 sanctions, maritime tension, and economic contraction \u2014 could push society toward another uncontrollable rupture. In their view, the greater risk is not compromise, but systemic overload: a combination of economic exhaustion and political paralysis that could trigger mass unrest.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2229\" data-end=\"2587\">This concern is most clearly reflected in repeated references to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/iran-november-2019-uprising-and-its-amplifications\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the 2019 fuel crisis<\/a>, when a sudden increase in gasoline prices triggered nationwide protests that escalated rapidly into one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic in decades, resulting in widespread unrest and a severe security response.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"2589\" data-end=\"3029\">In his remarks, Hamid <a href=\"https:\/\/fararu.com\/video\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA-90\/921681-%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%B9%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%AC%D9%86%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%B3%D8%A7%DB%8C%DB%8C-%D8%B9%D9%84%DB%8C%D9%87-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%87-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%85%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Rasaee directly linked<\/a> current debates over fuel subsidies and pricing to that precedent, warning that new adjustments to gasoline quotas and prices \u2014 reportedly including increases in higher-tier fuel prices to as much as 15,000\u201320,000 tomans \u2014 could reproduce similar instability dynamics. His intervention frames the issue not as a policy dispute, but as a question of regime stability under conditions of economic pressure.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;Amid mounting military and diplomatic pressure, the Iranian regime\u2019s ruling cliques are tearing each other apart over whether to pursue negotiations with the United States, extend the ceasefire, or double down on confrontation,&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MasumehBolurchi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MasumehBolurchi<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranWar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2050270277259399483?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hormuz and Internet Control<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Araghchi\u2019s remarks on the Strait of Hormuz also reflected Tehran\u2019s attempt to maintain leverage while under pressure. He stated that Tehran is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.entekhab.ir\/fa\/amp\/news\/921438\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">coordinating with Oman<\/a> regarding the future management of the strategic waterway and insisted that vessels passing through Hormuz \u201cmust coordinate with the Iranian navy.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">At the same time, internal tensions are spilling into other areas of governance, including cyberspace control. State-affiliated outlets sharply criticized the regime&#8217;s president Masoud Pezeshkian after he appointed Mohammad Reza Aref to oversee cyberspace management rather than easing internet restrictions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The state-linked website <a href=\"https:\/\/www.entekhab.ir\/fa\/news\/921157\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><em>Entekhab<\/em> <\/a>criticized the move on May 14, while <em>Jahan Sanat<\/em> on May 15 described the policy as a \u201cgovernment show to continue the absurd internet farce.\u201d Critics warned that internet restrictions are crippling businesses, media outlets, and public trust at a time of mounting instability.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;Deepening internal divisions within Iran\u2019s ruling establishment have come into sharp focus in late April 2026, as officials, lawmakers, clerics, and state media openly clash over war strategy and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/negotiations?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#negotiations<\/a> with the United States,&quot; writes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HakamianMahmoud?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@HakamianMahmoud<\/a>.\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2049513131257278557?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 29, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">A Regime Divided Over How to Survive<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regime\u2019s conduct before and during the June 2025 twelve-day war and the subsequent 40-day conflict laid bare the depth of this existential dread. Despite absorbing major military losses and endangering the lives of senior commanders and top leadership figures, Tehran refused to make any visible retreat. For the hardline core, preserving deterrence and projecting defiance remained essential to sustaining morale inside its security forces, ideological base, and proxy networks.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yet the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/iranian-regime-infighting\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">current disputes<\/a> reveal a growing conviction among other establishment figures that prolonged economic crisis, institutional paralysis, secrecy, and social pressure could ignite the very danger they fear from within. The conflict inside Tehran is therefore not about diplomacy itself, but about which path is less likely to trigger the regime\u2019s ultimate nightmare: another nationwide uprising converging with organized opposition forces.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read The latest infighting inside Tehran is no longer a routine dispute between &ldquo;hardliners&rdquo; and &ldquo;moderates.&rdquo; It reflects a deeper struggle between rival camps advancing competing survival strategies for [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":326332,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[45,17,5450],"tags":[1175,5482],"class_list":{"0":"post-345106","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"category-nuclear","9":"category-iranian-regime-infighting","10":"tag-iran-nuclear","11":"tag-iranian-regime-infighting"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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