{"id":345208,"date":"2026-05-19T21:25:56","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T20:25:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=345208"},"modified":"2026-05-19T21:25:56","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T20:25:56","slug":"fearing-foreign-war-or-armed-uprising-irans-regime-arms-loyal-base-amid-economic-meltdown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/fearing-foreign-war-or-armed-uprising-irans-regime-arms-loyal-base-amid-economic-meltdown\/","title":{"rendered":"Fearing Foreign War or Armed Uprising, Iran\u2019s Regime Arms Loyal Base Amid Economic Meltdown"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_345209\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-345209\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-345209 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/iran-irib-showing-rifle-16052026.jpg\" alt=\"IRIB state television broadcast from Zahedan, May 16, 2026, showing regime-affiliated woman interviewed with an assault rifle\" width=\"1000\" height=\"564\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/iran-irib-showing-rifle-16052026.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/iran-irib-showing-rifle-16052026-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/iran-irib-showing-rifle-16052026-768x433.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/iran-irib-showing-rifle-16052026-745x420.jpg 745w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/iran-irib-showing-rifle-16052026-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/iran-irib-showing-rifle-16052026-696x393.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-345209\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">IRIB state television broadcast from Zahedan, May 16, 2026, showing regime-affiliated woman interviewed with an assault rifle<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em><strong>Three-minute read<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Iranian state television IRIB aired footage on May 18, 2026, of civilians \u2014 including women, teenagers and children \u2014 receiving hands-on training in assembling, loading and firing personal weapons during nightly pro-regime rallies in city squares. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/amp\/2220714\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Khabar Online reported<\/a> the same day that similar \u201cdefense preparedness\u201d stalls have been erected in mosques and public spaces, teaching basic firearm handling to ordinary citizens. The broadcasts and events coincide with growing speculation about possible renewed ground operations inside Iran.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">State media have also shown repeated images of armed civilians at rallies since the conflict with the United States and Israel began. Schools already include \u201cdefense preparedness\u201d lessons from Grade 9 to 12, covering weapon safety, basic operation, civil defense and soft-war concepts. Earlier episodes on IRIB\u2019s Ofogh network featured live firing and machine-gun assembly, including shots aimed at an Emirati flag.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Criticism Mounts Over Arming Minors<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Social-media users and domestic critics have condemned the programs as \u201cpromoting militarism and violence in society.\u201d State-affiliated newspaper Sazandegi and website <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asriran.com\/fa\/news\/1163625\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Asr-e Iran accused<\/a> state television of \u201cturning the national broadcaster into a barracks.\u201d Particular outrage has focused on arming children and minors, including reports of armed teenagers manning checkpoints.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;The harder the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/terrorist?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#terrorist<\/a> regime fights to survive through spectacle, the faster it hastens the very disintegration it dreads. The cameras keep rolling, the queues keep growing, and the endgame has begun,&quot; writes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MehdiOghbai?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MehdiOghbai<\/a>. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/i1Z5vl4zKw\">https:\/\/t.co\/i1Z5vl4zKw<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2056307687596454389?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 18, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">IRIB political deputy Hassan Abedini described the content as \u201csymbolic\u201d on May 18, while television deputy Mohsen Barmahani defended it as having \u201ceducational, cultural and training value\u201d beyond combat. Regime supporters portrayed the sessions as evidence that \u201cIran and its people possess the highest level of military authority and readiness.\u201d Some analysts called the coverage domestic and foreign propaganda.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">War Economy Shows Strain in Markets and Oil<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Tehran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.isna.ir\/amp\/1405022917014\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stock Exchange reopened<\/a> on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, after an 80-day suspension imposed as the regime sought to contain panic and manage the political fallout from deepening economic turmoil. State news agency IRNA had announced the reopening schedule, citing the need for calmer post-war conditions. Yet the first session showed overwhelming sell pressure, with buy orders at roughly 1,575 billion tomans against sell orders exceeding 10,300 billion tomans.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Forty-two major symbols \u2014 about 35 percent of market capitalization \u2014 remained closed due to war damage or ties to affected firms in petrochemicals, metals, energy and investment sectors. Financial Times reported on May 19 that US sanctions and naval blockade have forced Iran to store unsold crude on ageing tankers anchored in the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Data from United Against <a href=\"https:\/\/www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com\/news\/irans-new-offer-insufficient-risks-war-resumption-senior-us-official\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nuclear Iran showed<\/a> 39 Iranian oil and petrochemical tankers present \u2014 up from 29 before the blockade \u2014 while Kepler analytics recorded 42 million barrels of floating crude, a 65 percent increase since fighting started. Even 30-year-old super-tankers idle for years have resumed signaling near Kharg Island.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">&quot;History suggests that mass repression can suppress symptoms without resolving causes. None of the structural grievances that fueled the uprisings since 2017 have disappeared. Instead, they have accumulated,&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MehdiOghbai?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MehdiOghbai<\/a> writes on <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranRevolution2026%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranRevolution2026\u200c<\/a>.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Fvoi43hUPl\">https:\/\/t.co\/Fvoi43hUPl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2053189179308171714?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 9, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Internet Blackout and Inflation Crush Livelihoods<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Nearly three months of near-total internet blackout have destroyed hundreds of thousands of home-based businesses, most run by women. Pre-cutoff estimates placed Instagram shops at one million stores with annual turnover of 100-120 trillion tomans; more than 60 percent were owned by women. Union officials say at least <a href=\"https:\/\/ir.voanews.com\/amp\/internet-outage-in-iran-women-poverty-instagram-jobs\/8151672.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">600,000 women lost<\/a> their primary income, while tens of thousands more in content creation, graphic design, tourism and platform jobs were idled.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Presidentian deputy for Women\u2019s Affairs Zohreh Behzad Azar publicly acknowledged that women \u2014 who conduct most of their economic activity online \u2014 have suffered the heaviest blow. Shaparak card-payment data for April 2026 showed real transaction values and volumes falling year-on-year even after stripping out inflation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The decline accelerated with war, blackouts and soaring prices; December 2025 already recorded a more than 20 percent real drop \u2014 an unusual collapse for the traditional pre-Nowruz surge month. Official statistics put point-to-point inflation at 73.5 percent and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.khabaronline.ir\/amp\/2217660\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">food inflation at 115 percent<\/a>. The minimum wage stands at 16.6 million tomans monthly, while the official food basket exceeds 42 million and labor activists estimate real living costs near 71 million tomans.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran\u2019s regime, militarily degraded after <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/IranWar%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar\u200c<\/a> and confronting economic collapse, drought and a nationwide internet blackout, is relying almost entirely on psychological warfare and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/propaganda?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#propaganda<\/a> to project strength and buy time, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/shahriarkia?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@shahriarkia<\/a> writes.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ozRu1iOhnp\">https:\/\/t.co\/ozRu1iOhnp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2055361346540081188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 15, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Street Anger and Internal Divisions Surface<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">On Sunday, May 17, 2026, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iranntv.com\/965009-%D8%AA%D8%AC%D9%85%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D8%B9%D8%AA%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B6%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B2%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%B3%D8%AA%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%A3%D9%85%DB%8C%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C-%D8%B4%D9%88%D8%B4-%D9%88-%D8%AE%D8%B4%D9%85-%D9%87%D9%85%D9%88%D8%B7%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AC%DB%8C%D8%B1%D9%81%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86-%D9%88-%D8%B5%D9%81%D9%87%D8%A7%DB%8C-%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pensioners in Shush<\/a> gathered outside the local Social Security office to protest \u201coppression and looting\u201d by regime officials. In Jiroft the same week, residents formed days-long fuel queues and voiced fury at chronic petrol shortages. Videos showed citizens describing life as a \u201cqueue of supplication,\u201d with families waiting from dawn until after dark for a single liter of fuel.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hardline MPs and Ghalibaf-aligned outlets declared a \u201cregional war inevitable and imminent,\u201d naming UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain as potential targets and threatening to \u201cset Gulf energy ablaze\u201d if Iranian oil is hit. Yet Supreme Leader\u2019s office issued direct orders to preachers: stop undermining the negotiating team or government.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regime&#8217;s president Masoud Pezeshkian warned that internal divisions now pose the greatest threat after failed quick-collapse scenarios. Cabinet changes are frozen; Pezeshkian reportedly wants to replace key ministers but is blocked by \u201cwartime unity\u201d arguments. State media on May 18-19 stressed the need for cohesion, revealing deep anxiety that domestic fractures could prove more dangerous than foreign pressure.<\/p>\n<div class=\"qMYqUG_convSearchResultHighlightRoot\">\n<div class=\"\" data-turn-id-container=\"request-6a084ee3-49fc-83eb-9c42-047d1334f637-1\" data-is-intersecting=\"true\">\n<div class=\"relative w-full overflow-visible\">\n<section class=\"text-token-text-primary w-full focus:outline-none has-data-writing-block:pointer-events-none [&amp;:has([data-writing-block])&gt;*]:pointer-events-auto R6Vx5W_threadScrollVars scroll-mb-[calc(var(--scroll-root-safe-area-inset-bottom,0px)+var(--thread-response-height))] scroll-mt-[calc(var(--header-height)+min(200px,max(70px,20svh)))]\" dir=\"auto\" data-turn-id=\"request-6a084ee3-49fc-83eb-9c42-047d1334f637-1\" data-turn-id-container=\"request-6a084ee3-49fc-83eb-9c42-047d1334f637-1\" data-testid=\"conversation-turn-36\" data-scroll-anchor=\"false\" data-turn=\"assistant\">\n<div class=\"text-base my-auto mx-auto pb-3 [--thread-content-margin:var(--thread-content-margin-xs,calc(var(--spacing)*4))] @w-sm\/main:[--thread-content-margin:var(--thread-content-margin-sm,calc(var(--spacing)*6))] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-margin:var(--thread-content-margin-lg,calc(var(--spacing)*16))] px-(--thread-content-margin)\">\n<div class=\"[--thread-content-max-width:40rem] @w-lg\/main:[--thread-content-max-width:48rem] mx-auto max-w-(--thread-content-max-width) flex-1 group\/turn-messages focus-visible:outline-hidden relative flex w-full min-w-0 flex-col agent-turn\">\n<div class=\"flex max-w-full flex-col gap-4 grow\">\n<div class=\"min-h-8 text-message relative flex w-full flex-col items-end gap-2 text-start break-words whitespace-normal outline-none keyboard-focused:focus-ring [.text-message+&amp;]:mt-1\" dir=\"auto\" tabindex=\"0\" data-message-author-role=\"assistant\" data-message-id=\"81d04e74-d331-4aa6-8dd1-f4fac2916934\" data-turn-start-message=\"true\" data-message-model-slug=\"gpt-5-5\">\n<div class=\"flex w-full flex-col gap-1 empty:hidden\">\n<div class=\"markdown prose dark:prose-invert wrap-break-word w-full light markdown-new-styling\">\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"437\" data-is-last-node=\"\" data-is-only-node=\"\">The regime finds itself trapped between the prospect of renewed foreign war and the danger of a people\u2019s armed uprising. As a result, Tehran is increasingly resorting to wartime posturing: expanding the militarization of its loyalist base, reviving security rhetoric, and attempting to project strength both outwardly against foreign adversaries and inwardly against a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/\">deeply restive society<\/a> that the regime fears could erupt once again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read Iranian state television IRIB aired footage on May 18, 2026, of civilians &mdash; including women, teenagers and children &mdash; receiving hands-on training in assembling, loading and firing personal [&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":345209,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,11,10],"tags":[269,5415],"class_list":{"0":"post-345208","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-iran-protests","8":"category-society","9":"category-economy","10":"tag-iran-economy","11":"tag-iran-society"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - 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