{"id":346239,"date":"2026-06-30T06:49:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-30T05:49:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=346239"},"modified":"2026-06-30T06:59:29","modified_gmt":"2026-06-30T05:59:29","slug":"why-the-west-has-yet-to-fully-understand-the-iranian-equation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-resistance\/why-the-west-has-yet-to-fully-understand-the-iranian-equation\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the West Has Yet to Fully Understand the Iranian Equation"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Iran
Protesters clash with security forces in the streets of Iran during the 2022 uprising against the clerical dictatorship<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

On the weekend of June 20, 2026, tens of thousands of Iranians<\/a> converged on Paris for the largest annual gathering of the democratic opposition. A French court blocked them \u2014 citing intelligence that both the regime and the Shah’s monarchist heirs had threatened to bomb the demonstration.<\/p>\n

Theocrats and monarchists, for all their mutual loathing, have always been allies when it comes to waging war on the people and silencing the popular forces that threaten them both.<\/p>\n

That convergence is the skeleton key to the Iranian crisis. Until Western capitals grasp it, every sanctions package and back-channel deal will produce the same result: a regime that grows more dangerous while those capable of changing it are undermined.<\/p>\n

Where Western Assumptions Fell Short<\/h2>\n

Western Iran policy has rested on three propositions. Each has failed.<\/p>\n

The theory of internal moderation collapsed once again when Khamenei’s own son assumed<\/a> the Supreme Leadership. The so-called moderates differ from the hardliners not in kind but in tone.<\/p>\n

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NCRI Editorial: Appeasement with #Iranian<\/a> Regime Cannot Change its Fate, Only Extend the Sufferinghttps:\/\/t.co\/LkEJxCXVBN<\/a><\/p>\n

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n