{"id":346515,"date":"2026-07-11T15:19:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-11T14:19:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=346515"},"modified":"2026-07-11T16:20:37","modified_gmt":"2026-07-11T15:20:37","slug":"the-illusion-of-survival-how-post-war-fractures-are-dismantling-the-iranian-regime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-a-world\/the-illusion-of-survival-how-post-war-fractures-are-dismantling-the-iranian-regime\/","title":{"rendered":"The Illusion of Survival: How Post-War Fractures Are Dismantling the Iranian Regime"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"January
January 25, 2025 A woman at a state-staged rally holds a placard reading, “The American Zarif must be executed”<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Four-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the war between the United States, Israel, and the Iranian regime, Tehran claimed victory on the grounds that the system had not been overthrown. But this claim rests on a false premise. In reality, the conflict represents a Pyrrhic victory\u2014a survival achieved at such a devastating cost that it has left the regime’s core power structure critically fractured<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The war resulted in the unprecedented elimination of the Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei), the regime’s highest-ranking political officials, and the top brass of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While factional feuding has always existed over the course of the regime’s 40-plus-year history, those past conflicts were primarily about dividing shares of power. Today, the internal fissure has fundamentally shifted: it is an existential battle over regime survival, fiercely contesting which political course and which faction is capable of preserving the state.<\/p>\n

This decapitation of the old guard did not unify the system in the face of an existential threat; instead, the internal evidence points to severe economic strain, a highly volatile society, and a visibly fragmented ruling elite. Most importantly, the crisis has reached the central pillar of the Iranian regime: Velayat-e Faqih (absolute clerical rule). The dispute is no longer merely about whether to negotiate with the United States. It has become a struggle over whether Mojtaba Khamenei<\/a>, presented as the new Supreme Leader in the wake of his father’s death, has the authority to impose a single line on the regime\u2019s remaining factions.<\/p>\n

\n

"As internal factions wage intense political warfare over tactical #MoU<\/a> concessions and hereditary succession, the fundamental crises driving the historic wave of popular uprisings since 2017 remain entirely unaddressed," writes Dr, @MasumehBolurchi<\/a>. https:\/\/t.co\/L5sGY8fPAp<\/a><\/p>\n

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 16, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n