{"id":346598,"date":"2026-07-14T20:56:53","date_gmt":"2026-07-14T19:56:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=346598"},"modified":"2026-07-14T20:56:53","modified_gmt":"2026-07-14T19:56:53","slug":"the-iranian-regime-needs-war-for-its-survival","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/terrorism-a-fundamentalism\/the-iranian-regime-needs-war-for-its-survival\/","title":{"rendered":"The Iranian Regime Needs War for Its Survival\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Iranian
Iranian military trucks fitted with large missile launchers are seen lined up at a desert base during a display of hardware<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Three-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The smoke has barely cleared from the funeral pyres in Mashhad, yet the Middle East is once again on the brink. Following the recent death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a comforting but deeply flawed illusion took hold among Western policymakers: the belief that the fundamental nature of the clerical dictatorship had changed. With the\u00a0perception\u00a0that the\u00a0Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)\u00a0ostensibly steering\u00a0the state,\u00a0some\u00a0hoped a pragmatic transition was underway.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

But on July 12, as the IRGC fired on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and targeted US bases across five Gulf states, that illusion shattered. The regime’s actions proved a stark reality: the system has not changed, and the same desperate survival doctrine that guided<\/a> Ali Khamenei now dictates the actions of his\u00a0heir and successor, Mojtaba.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The Promise of Bloodshed, Not Pragmatism<\/h2>\n

Rather than pivoting toward diplomacy, the new Supreme Leader has doubled down on violent retribution. In a stark message\u00a0during his father\u2019s burial theatrics, Mojtaba Khamenei made his intentions chillingly clear: \u201cWe pledge to avenge your pure blood and the blood of all the martyrs of these two wars against the criminal and disgraced killers.\u201d Leaving no room for misinterpretation by Western analysts eager to spot moderate reforms, Mojtaba issued a direct threat to his adversaries, stating that the “murderers of the martyred Leader… will carry their dream of a peaceful death in bed to the grave,” declaring this revenge to be the unyielding “demand of our nation.”<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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When external diversions faded, Iran saw a marked rise in both grassroots demonstrations and the operational frequency of #MEKResistanceUnits<\/a>. This dual escalation signals a clear transition in local agency, as the population bypasses past stalemates to assert a homegrown vision\u2026<\/p>\n

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) July 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n